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Economic Outlook September 2016

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Presentation on theme: "Economic Outlook September 2016"— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic Outlook September 2016
Economic Policy Division

2 U.S. Real GDP and GDI

3 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential
Quarterly, Q to Q4 2017 Trillion $2009 Forecast

4 Labor Productivity

5 Economic Outlook September 2016
Economic Policy Division

6 U.S. GDP: Estimates of Potential
(Real $2013 dollars)

7 Real GDP Outlook

8 Personal Consumption Outlook Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

9 Net National Saving Net National Saving Components of Saving

10 Real Nonresidential Investment

11 Industrial Production
Investment Drivers Industrial Production Capacity Utilization

12 Monthly Leasing and Finance Index Total Rail Carloadings
Sector Indicators ATA Truck Tonnage Index Boxboard Production Monthly Leasing and Finance Index Total Rail Carloadings

13 Domestic Bank Lending

14 U.S. Trade Real Net Exports of Goods and Services
U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate

15 Unemployment Rate August: 4.9% Initial Unemployment Claims
Labor Market Household Employment Total Nonfarm Jobs Unemployment Rate August: 4.9% Initial Unemployment Claims

16 Part-time for Economic Reasons Civilian Participation Rate
Labor Market Part-time for Economic Reasons Discouraged Workers Duration of Unemployment Civilian Participation Rate

17 Employment-Population Ratio
Percent

18 Bank Assets and Liabilities
Fed Policy Bank Assets and Liabilities

19 CBO’s Baseline Deficit
(August 2016) Budget Deficit Deficit to GDP

20 Government Baseline Outside Debt
(August 2016) Debt Debt to GDP

21 Government Revenues and Outlays (Percent of GDP)
Source: CBO Baseline (August 2016)

22 Government Outlays Discretionary Entitlements Net Interest
Source: CBO Baseline (August 2016) Discretionary Entitlements Net Interest

23 Mandatory Spending as a Share of Total Revenues
Source: CBO Baseline (August 2016) Mandatory Spending (Entitlements + Net Interest)


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