1. Cattle Market Update Derrell S. Peel
Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
Oklahoma State University

2. Topics Global and Macroeconomic Environment Cattle Market Fundamentals
Cattle Inventory and Beef Production
Beef Demand
International Trade
Feed and Forage Markets and Conditions

3. Global and Macroeconomic Environment
Changes
Political
Policy
Uncertainty
Global Economy
U.S. Economy
Trade
Exchange Rates
Volatility
Markets
Futures

4. OK Combined and 5-MKT Fed

5. Data Source: USDA-AMS

6. Data Source: USDA-ERS

7. Cattle inventories

8. U.S. Cattle Inventory January 1
2015
2016
2017
% Change
1000 Head
All Cattle and Calves
89143
91918
+1.8
Beef Cows
+3.5
Dairy Cows
9306.9
9310.4
9349.0
+0.4
Beef Replacements
6086.4
6340.2
6419.2
+1.2
Dairy Replacements
4710.0
4814.0
4754.0
-1.2
Feeder Supply
+2.2
Cattle on Feed
13025
13157
13067
-0.7
2014
Calf Crop
33522
+2.9

9. Oklahoma Cattle Inventory January 1
2015
2016
2017
% Change
1000 Head
All Cattle and Calves
4550
4800
5000
+4.2
Beef Cows
1880
1923
2095
+8.9
Dairy Cows 40 37 35
-5.4
Beef Replacements
420
460
445
-3.3
Dairy Replacements 25 20
-20.0
Feeder Supply
1780
1930
1935
+0.3
Cattle on Feed
265
280
310
+10.7
Calf Crop
1760
1730
1870
+8.1

10. Oklahoma and U.S. Cattle Cycles: Beef Cow Inventory, January 1

11. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

12. Beef Cow Inventory by Cycle U.S., January 1
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

13. 1.3 %
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

14. Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

16. Decreasing Crop Values $/bushel, Crop Years
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
% Change
Wheat
5.70
7.20
7.77
6.87
5.99
4.89
3.85
-21.3
Corn
5.18
6.20
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.60
3.40
-5.6
Soybeans
11.30
11.70
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.50
+6.1
Sorghum
5.02
6.10
6.33
4.28
4.03
3.31
2.70
-18.4
Barley
3.86
5.40
6.43
6.06
5.30
5.52
4.95
-10.3
Oats
2.52
3.89
3.75
3.21
2.12
2.05
-3.3
Rice (cwt.)
12.70
14.30
15.10
16.30
13.40
12.20
10.50
-13.9
*forecast

17. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

18. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

19. Monthly Placements and Cattle on Feed 12 Month Moving Ave.

20. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

21. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

22. Commercial Beef Production
Beef Cow Inventory
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC and Derrell Peel
Forecast

23. 2017 Meat Production and Consumption
Consum. Change
Consum.
Per Capita
Change
2015
2016
2017
2016-
Million lbs. %
Million
lbs.
Retail Lbs.
Beef
23698
25212
+6.4
26187
+3.9
+3.0
56.2
+1.1
Pork
24501
24939
+1.8
25556
+2.5
+0.8
50.3
+0.4
Broilers
39620
40261
+1.6
41349
+2.7
90.2
+0.7
Total
94270
97231
+3.1
100066
+2.9
+1.5
216.1
+1.0
LMIC, March 3, 2017

24. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

25. International trade

26. U.S. Beef Exports
Major Markets

27. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

28. U.S. Beef Imports
Major Markets

29. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

30. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

31. 2017 Cattle Price Forecasts
Feeder Steer Price (Southern Plains)
Fed Steer
5-600 lb.
($/cwt.)
% chg from
Last Year
7-800 lb.
5-mkt avg.
($/cwt)
2016 IV
138.44
-32.0
129.07
-27.2
107.69
-15.7
Annual
166.29
-33.8
145.61
-30.1
120.85
-18.6
2017 I
-19.8
-17.5
-11.4 II
-14.0
-11.5
-9.5
III
-9.0
-9.1
-3.7
-0.6
+0.3
+1.7
-11.6
-10.3
-6.1
LMIC, March 2, 2017

32. Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain March 10, 2017, 7 Mkt. Ave
Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain March 10, 2017, 7 Mkt. Ave., Oklahoma
Weight (lbs)
Average Price ($/cwt.)
Total Value ($/hd)
VOG
400 lb. Beg. Weight
($/lb.)
450 lb. Beg. Weight
($/lb
500 lb. Beg. Weight
550 lb. Beg. Weight
600 lb. Beg. Weight
650 lb. Beg. Weight
400
$183.82
$735
450
$175.81
$791
$1.12
500
$166.18
$831
$0.96
$0.80
550
$157.75
$868
$0.88
$0.76
$0.73
600
$150.24
$901
$0.83
$0.74
$0.71
$0.68
650
$143.51
$933
$0.79
$0.65
$0.63
700
$137.22
$961
$0.75
$0.62
$0.59
$0.55
750
$130.92
$982
$0.70
$0.64
$0.60
$0.57
$0.54
$0.49
800
$125.89
$1,007
$0.56
$0.53
$0.50
850
$122.47
$1,041
$0.58
900
$119.59
$1,076
$0.61

33. Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain January 20, 2017, 7 Mkt. Ave., Oklahoma
Weight (lbs)
Average Price ($/cwt.)
Total Value ($/hd)
VOG
400 lb. Beg. Weight
($/lb.)
450 lb. Beg. Weight
($/lb
500 lb. Beg. Weight
550 lb. Beg. Weight
600 lb. Beg. Weight
650 lb. Beg. Weight
400
$176.32
$705
450
$170.69
$768
$1.26
500
$162.02
$810
$1.05
$0.84
550
$151.63
$834
$0.86
$0.66
$0.48
600
$144.37
$866
$0.80
$0.65
$0.56
650
$140.11
$911
$0.82
$0.71
$0.67
$0.77
$0.89
700
$136.32
$954
$0.83
$0.74
$0.72
$0.88
$0.87
750
$133.71
$1,003
$0.85
$0.78
$0.91
$0.92
800
$132.19
$1,058
$0.96
$0.98
850
$129.80
$1,103
$0.90
$0.95
900
$129.71
$1,167
$1.00
$1.03

34. Send Email to derrell.peel@okstate.edu
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