1. APPLICATIONS OF STATEWIDE TRAVEL FORECASTING MODEL
Eric Songer
URS Corporation
Michael Doherty
James Fennessy
Fennessy Associates

2. Presentation Outline Turnpike State Model Applications
Overview
Validation Results
Applications
Heartland Forecast
Grid Analysis
Reverse Engineering
Questions

3. Turnpike State Model GIS Database
Built from scratch to ensure consistency among all components
Simplified travel demand model structure with integrated land use model
Two way GIS to TRANPLAN interface
Landuse allocation interface capability
Produces vehicle forecasts (AADT)

4. Model Network Built from GDT/ TeleAtlas network, FDOT RCI
2004 base network
500,000 arcs
124,500 links
2015 network
Florida DOT work plan: 2,000 additional links
Includes 11,800 FDOT RCI traffic count stations

5. Zone System Automatically generated from network Total of 29,395 zones
4,837 internal
37 external
23,086 for non-developable areas (e.g. lakes)

6. Model Validation
Matrix-estimated trip lengths are very close to NHTS Florida distribution
Emphasize that 97 % is less than 50 miles in length.
20K AADT, means around 600 are trips greater than 50 miles and less than 100 are greater than 300 miles.
Visitors may make one long trip to destination, then numerous short trips.
Model matches the 11,800 counts very closely, in part due to substantial network data cleaning effort

7. Summary and Conclusions
FL TSM v.1.0 completed in 2006
Use of GIS database significantly facilitates model development and maintenance efforts
Simplified initial travel demand modeling approach supports focus on critical data quality and maintenance issues
Having reliable network data supports incremental enhancements of the travel demand models over time for toll forecasting analysis

8. Heartland Example Evaluated both East-West and North-South Corridors
Automated alignment based on avoidance
Smoothed to engineering curves
Database updated
Performed toll forecasting analysis
Performed “reversed engineering” analysis

9. Heartland Alignments

10. Heartland Analysis East – West 2 alternatives
Not moving forward at this time
North – South
Corridor identified for review
North of SR 60

11. Heartland Project – Reverse Engineering
Calculate Number of trips necessary to generate revenue necessary to bond toll facility
Use Matrix Estimation to generate trip table necessary to satisfy the necessary volume
Calculate additional needed socio-economic and employment per zone
Use GIS to display population and employment change
Completed for potential Turnpike project identification.

12. TSM Application – Grid Analysis
2035 Landuse projections
2015 Network
GIS database available in 5 year increments
Completed for potential Turnpike project identification.

13. Nine New Corridors
We did a preliminary analysis of the 9 proposed new corridors.

14. What is Grid Analysis One Mile Grid Entire State Cut-line analysis
Sum of Volume, Capacity
Calculates
V/C
Lane by facility type
Interesting tool for looking at increase in vehicle trips. Cut line analysis to help identify problem areas.

15. Grid Analysis Shows where supply is not meeting demand
Pattern helps define corridors
V/C
Red > 1
Orange > 0.85
Green > 0.65
Grey > .5
Supply is capacity. Demand is volume. ADD LEGEND

16. Grid Analysis Results 2035 land use with 2015 network 2035 V/C > .85
2035 Results 2035 socio-econ assigned to the 2015 network.

17. Grid Analysis & Corridors

18. Orange – Duval AADT (millions) 35.2 Capacity (millions) 50.5
Volume / Capacity 0.70
New Capacity (Lane miles)
Limited Access 9
Primary Arterials 27
Secondary Arterials 40
Collectors 70
Total 146

19. State V/C Results 2035 2035 land use with 2015 network
2035 Results 2035 socio-econ assigned to the 2015 network.

20. Summary and Conclusions
TSM has complemented other tools available to Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise for toll forecasting analysis applications
Future enhancements include:
Toll mode choice model
Truck volume forecasting
Continuing TSM database maintenance and update

21. Questions?