1. Italian Fuel Price Observatory carburanti.mise.gov.it
Advanced Tool for Consumers & Researchers
Giancarlo Fiorito
Italian Ministry of Economic Development
Bruxelles – Feb

2. Structure Scenario: Cars, Fuel retail sector & the economy
Osservaprezzi what & how: Milestones
Price information  Web and App
Powerful statistics  Academia
Website popularity
Comments & questions

3. Car sales are shrinking

4. …so are fuels quantities…
but…

5. 2 “clean” hopes

6. …and CH4 travels by pipeline

7. Vehicle fuels retail in EU
 many stations & little sales

8. A long-time problem…not getting better

9. …with a good dose of inertia

10. Means high ex-tax prices for gasoline
Source: UP, Anfia, National Oil Companies, 2013

11. …and for diesel…
Source: UP, Anfia, National Oil Companies, 2013

12. Cars vs. Fuel taxes?
No causality though…

13. Milestones Italian Law 99/2009 “Price transparency” sets
Mandatory Price communication system between Fuel retailers MISE
 Same recommendations of EC Vehicle Fuel Market Study 2014
Directorate for consumers entrusted (not “Energy”)
Goal  Transparency
Within since 2005

14. Osservaprezzi Carburanti The project
Identify/Register/Update ≈ retailers
Communicating & updating prices weekly, at least
Managing/displaying the (BIG) data
Website & smartphone App
Analysis/Monitoring of price behaviour

15. Price Observatory Origin
Jan-2002 comes € currency
 Fear of inflation
1 € ≈ £
“Prices will double!!”
Consumer protection projects
Increase rights, but how?
(Prices are “free”)
Lex – Web 2.0 – Open Data – 3D Stats

16. Osservaprezzi BIG DATA
Recall the “lazy”
 Sanctions
Sep-13
Compulsory communication
February 2015
≈ 90% of fuel stations

17. Osservaprezzi Carburanti - on Web
> daily records
Gasoline, diesel
LPG & Methane
Premium fuels negligible
By mode: Self & served
by road type
Highway, National & Other
Food, mechanics, accessibility…

18. Web Search & results
Or draw an area…

19. Results  Green cheapest

20. Osservaprezzi Carburanti – The App
Where am I? Where do I go? Fuel prices along the way

21. App Popularity
Competition from existing Consumer Association App Updated by car drivers

22. Website popularity

23. Statistics and reporting
Descriptive
By region/province
Company
Road type
Econometrics
“Rockets & feathers”, ECM models
Price dynamics within local cluster
Non-parametric analysis (price distribution)

24. Detailed consumer information
Geo Unit reaches
Novel statistical level
Local work system
Province
Region
Macro-area
Mountain regions, Islands, touristic sites,
City centre
 Higher prices

25. Ad-hoc, detailed price monitoring…
Gasoline price
by province
@ 11:00 AM

26. Province price being more accurate information compared to regions
Diesel price

27. LPG and Methane are of major interest! “Active” consumers
Complete info  all retailers on-line

28. Probabilistic Analysis
To analyze the whole database
Ranked by a density function
Density representing the probability to find “that” price
All valid prices – not the average – are displayed
Examples of price
distribution
“High” prices
region
Skewed
distribution
price dispersion

29. Probabilistic Analysis (continued)
Industrial vs. Touristic area
Bimodal
distribution “sistematic” different prices
Other explainations for different prices:
 Lack of competition: few retailers, cartel?

30. “Zooming in” Statistics

31. Price distribution by brand Gasoline self mode Jan. 19 @ 11 AM
SAMPLE
Observations =
Branded = 9.949
Unbranded = 1.895
(highways excluded)

32. Price distribution by brand Diesel self mode Jan. 19 @ 11 AM

33. 3D VIEW Diesel self from sep-2013 to jan-15

34. 3D VIEW

35. the Synthesis
Price
Dispersion
Bimodal?
Symmetry

36. Price-check possibilities
By province
By oil company
By municipalty/province/region & company
Sensitive data
The Tool
Price policies unveiled?
Limit is prompt & valid price communication
“Fueled” by consumers check
 with the app…of course!

37. Conclusions Osservaprezzi Carburanti is…complex project
Many retailers, resistance to give info, register, lack of digital skills etc.
Server protocols for mass-communications, data automatisation & storage
App
Compliance ? (local police sent)
Big Data
For a very small team…
Next targets : Price modeling, Analysis of retail network evolution

38. giancarlo.fiorito@mise.gov.it carburanti.mise.gov.it
Thank you!
carburanti.mise.gov.it