1. New Jersey's Changing Climate With a Transportation Spin
New Brunswick, April 16, 2007 John Munson/The Star-Ledger
North Jersey Transportation
Planning Authority
Climate Working Group
Dr. David A. Robinson Chair, Department of Geography &
New Jersey State Climatologist Rutgers University September 28, 2010

2. Office of the NJ State Climatologist Our mission: Monitor Understand Inform

3. 1. Traveling through NJ. or not. 2. What drives our weather & climate
1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

4. Weather & climate impact all aspects of life in NJ
Transportation
Agriculture/horticulture
Ecology
Water resources
Public health & safety
Energy
Commerce

5. Yes, transportation
to be sure

6. Indian Trails
in the 1600s
Mapping NJ, 2009

7. Present Road
Network
Mapping NJ, 2009

10. Rail lines: 1876
Mapping NJ, 2009

13. 1. Traveling through NJ. or not. 2. What drives our weather & climate
1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

14. Weather - Climate
“Players”

15. A mid-latitude squeeze play

16. Diversity at home Altitude Latitude Surface Conditions
Land-Water Contrasts
Ocean Currents

17. 1. Traveling through NJ. or not. 2. What drives our weather & climate
1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

18. Climate
past 18

19. Past century of NJ climate variability

20. Climate Observations
Past 12 months of NJ's climate

21. Rank
Year
Summer Temp 1
2010
76.1 2
2005
75.6 3
1949
74.6 4
1999
74.5 5
2002
74.4 6
2006
74.3 7
1955
74.1 8
2008
74.0 9
1900
73.9 10
1943
73.8
1973

22. Rank
Year
Summer
Precip 1
1966
5.67 2
1957
5.73 3
1929
7.10 4
1949
7.65 5
1964
7.89 6
1913
8.09 7
1923
8.12 8
2010
8.27 9
1963
8.28 10
1944
8.32

24. Coupled Climate Model Schematic

25. Natural and anthropogenic forcings and 20th century temperatures
Meehl, G.A., et al., 2004

26. 1. Traveling through NJ. or not. 2. What drives our weather & climate
1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

27. New Jersey's future climate
Rising temperatures
Steady or increasing precipitation
Increasing variability and extremes
- storms, flood, drought, heat…….
Rising sea level

28. More warming in the pipeline
Future emissions
Additional “zero-emission” warming (aka “commitment”)
Warming to date 28

29. Changes in heat index
The heat index combines the effects of temperature and humidity to estimate human comfort.
Results are from simulations with three global climate models with two emissions scenarios, representing the low and high ends of the IPCC range.
Under the high emissions scenario, Tri-State summers at the end of the 21st century are projected to be similar to those in Savannah, Georgia today.

30. Effects of climate change on water resources: more floods and droughts?
Spruce Run Reservoir, March 2002
Delaware River, Sept. 2004
Easton-Phillipsburg Bridge June 2006 30

31. A recent view of global mean sea level changes
Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD
 Grinsted,  Moore and Jevrejeva, Climate Dynamics, 2009 31 31

32. 32 32

35. Shipping through the Arctic

36. Elevations
below 10 feet
in gray

37. 1. Traveling through NJ. or not. 2. What drives our weather & climate
1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

38. Managing climate change
Knowledge: Develop a better understanding of the details of future climate change.
Mitigation: Reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
Adaptation: Increase the resilience of society to climate change.
Leadership: Raise public awareness of the challenges posed by climate change and the need to mitigate and adapt.

40. 1. Traveling through NJ. or not. 2. What drives our weather & climate
1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

41. NJ Weather & Climate Network

42. Dry north, Central icing, Southern rain:
Sunday evening
12/2/07
Red numbers 2: rain
4: snow
6: freezing rain
7: drizzle

43. Custom
Quick Look
Information

44. precipitation observations
Augmenting automated
precipitation observations
Daily observations by
trained volunteers of
all ages

45. Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS)

47. Thanks 47