1. THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE
SA FISHING INDUSTRY
Doug S Butterworth
MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group)
Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics
University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa

2. OUTLINE I. Fish Stock Assessment and Management
II. The current status of the major SA renewable marine resources
III. Associated SA fisheries issues
Ecosystem considerations
Management /governance challenges
Rights issues
IV. The international horizon

3. FISH STOCK ASSESSMENTS
DATA SERIES AVAILABLE
Catch
Catch rate
Surveys
Length/Age composition of catch
Tag-recapture .
Use maths/stats modelling to find the time series of abundance and productivity of the resource which is most compatible with these data

4. FISH STOCK MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES Maximum sustainable yield - MSY
To get that reduce abundance to about 50% of pristine
Difficult to estimate MSY or what stock abundance will produce it
Fish stocks fluctuate considerably – broadly more parents lead to more recruits, but there’s substantial variability – broadly, avoid catches which would drive stocks too low
For major species, next year’s Total Allowable Catches (TACs) are set using pre-agreed decision rules (e.g. resource abundance increases means TAC will increase)

5. SHALLOW-WATER HAKE

6. DEEP-WATER HAKE

7. HAKE Marine Stewardship Council certification
Two species : shallow –water OK;
deep-water recovered but down turn expected
Av catch : t
Worth more than all the other fisheries together
Directly employs ~ 8000
Exports 70% ; worth ~ R 2.5 billion
Marine Stewardship Council certification
Only certified fishery in Africa
Loss certification  loss of 40% of 5-year NPV plus 5000 – direct and related jobs

8. SARDINE

9. ANCHOVY

10. SARDINE AND ANCHOVY STATUS
Sardine – concerns with a long period of poor recruitment since the boom at the turn of the century
Anchovy – good; resource underutilised .
AVERAGE CATCH
Sardine ~ t
Anchovy ~ t
ISSUES
Are there separate sardine stocks in Western and Eastern Cape?
Impact of fishing on food available for birds (penguins)

11. WEST COAST ROCK LOBSTER

12. WEST COAST ROCK LOBSTER
STATUS
Very poor – about 3% of pristine abundance .
AVERAGE CATCH
~ t
ISSUES
Concerns about increases in poaching
Past attempts at achieving recovery hardly successful
But there are signs of a short-term improvement

13. ABALONE

14. ABALONE STATUS Bad and getting worse AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012.
AVERAGE CATCH
~ t (legal)
ISSUES
Poaching dwarfs legal take – by a factor ~ 10
If poaching continues at present levels, which are NOT sustainable, resource will be commercially extinct in a decade

15. SQUID

16. SQUID STATUS A little below optimal AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 9 000 t.
AVERAGE CATCH
~ t
ISSUES
Recent low availability

17. SOUTH COAST ROCK LOBSTER

18. SOUTH COAST ROCK LOBSTER
STATUS
Optimal .
AVERAGE CATCH
~ t
ISSUES
Would prefer fishery-independent survey to be available as well as CPUE to index abundance

19. HORSE MACKEREL

20. HORSE MACKEREL STATUS Probably underutilised AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012.
AVERAGE CATCH
~ t
ISSUES
Recent low availability

21. KINGKLIP

22. MONK

23. KINGKLIP AND MONK STATUS
Kingklip now recovered from past longline overharvest
Monk “OK” – also increasing .
AVERAGE CATCH
Kingklip ~ t
Monk ~ t
ISSUES
How many kingklip stocks
Monk status unclear in absolute terms

24. PEI TOOTHFISH

25. PEI TOOTHFISH STATUS Probably above optimal AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012.
AVERAGE CATCH
~ 250t
ISSUES
Previous estimates about the impact of the initial illegal catch seem to have been too large

26. OVERALL SUSTAINABILITY SUMMARY
Recent annual catch (t) Status
Hake GR
Sardine ORA
Anchovy GR+
West coast lobster RED
Abalone RED-
Squid GR-
South coast lobster GR
Horse mackerel GR-
Kingklip GR
Monk GR-
PEI Toothfish GR

27. RESOURCES NOT COVERED VIEWED OVERALL Round herring GR+ Sole GR-
Tuna (international ) ORA (var)
Many line fish species RED+
VIEWED OVERALL
Offshore resources OK
Inshore resources IN TROUBLE (poaching and excess effort)

28. ASSOCIATED SA FISHERIES ISSUES
ECOSYSTEM CONSIDERATIONS
Bycatch controls (inshore trawl fishery) (sharks)
Food for marine predators (birds)
Habitat concerns
MPAs
More to preserve some pristine habitat than to improve fisheries yields
Effort limitation mechanism for inshore fisheries

29. ASSOCIATED SA FISHERIES ISSUES
MANAGEMENT/GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES
Ageing research staff
Rapidly changing Ministers and senior staff
Recent organisational shortfalls
Research vessel lengthy non-availability
Suspension of observer programme (MSC requirement)
Delayed rights re-allocation process
Little progress in reducing abalone/lobster poaching

30. ASSOCIATED SA FISHERIES ISSUES
RIGHTS ISSUES
Secure long term rights
Needed to provide conservation incentive
Flawed fixed period basis in Act needs correction
Re-distribution – are paper quotas avoidable?
Small scale policy
Little existing spare capacity amongst resources
Have expectations ben unrealistically raised?
Absence of detail, particularly regarding compliance systems

31. THE INTERNATIONAL HORIZON
FISHERIES vs ENVIRONMENT DEPTS
Poor RFMO performance (allocation issue). Will the UN step in?
RECOVERING DEPLETED STOCKS
With inexact science, will industries sacrifice now for future gains?
Upward trend in the fisheries in the developed western world.
Will a rising real cost of fuel be the primary determinant?
ECOLABELING
Raising the bar vs applicability in the developing world. Will this conflict lead to implosion?
SCIENTISTS vs MANAGERS
Pre-agreed decision rules (MPs) vs Flexibility/negotiation
Which will win? A continued risk of “too little too late”? 31

32. Thank you for your attention
With thanks for assistance in slide preparation from:
Liam Furman
and in developing the plots themselves:
Anabela Brandao
Carryn de Moor
Jean Glazer
Susan Johnston
Rebecca Rademeyer