1. INDIA’S FUTURE Or prosperity will spread in India
but happiness will not, until we fix governance by
Gurcharan Das
WIPRO
Marbella
November 12, 2009

2. Where are we going in the future?
Where are we coming from?
Where are we today?
Where are we going in the
future?

3. It has been going on for 25 years
Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new
It has been going on for 25 years
Please centre and cut the word old and put It has been onto a new line- could we make a consistent style for statements- maybe always in yellow, centred and growing?
Please could we have some kind of outline of India in the background to make the slide prettier

4. What is the India story?
Could we use the script- does that fit with template?

5. 28 years of high growth Average annual GDP growth (%) 2 4 6 8 102 4 6 8 10
8.9
6.0
3.5
1.0
Could we have a line for the y axis as well as numbers
Please animate all graphs so lines/bars and pie charts grow

6. Population growth is slowing
(%)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.5
1.0
Again y axis
Sources: : Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, :Census of India (2001)

7. Literacy is rising (%) 20 40 60 80 100 1950 1990 2000 2010 (proj) 8020 40 60 80
100
1950
1990
2000
2010 (proj) 80 65 52 17
Again line for y axis- is there a reason that the line is on green rather than orange?
Source: Census of India (2001)

8. When middle class is 50% then the politics will also change
100
200
300
400
1980
2000
2010
(m)
22%
32% 8%
368
220
Line for y axis 65
Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002

9. Poverty is declining
(%) 10 20 30 40 50
1980
2000
2010
1% of the people have been crossing poverty line each year for 25 years
Equals ~ 200m 46 26
Y axis line
Could we put text in white in a box of It– put Equals …..on its own line in yellow to make it more impactful 16

10. Per capita income gains
US$ ppp
2005
3,051
1980
1,178
Could we centre up the chart?
Source: World Bank

11. India is now the 4th largest economy
It will overtake Japan between 2012 and to become the 3rd largest
Cut the word and and centre up. Could we either make the statement grow and/or make it into a different colour to make it more impactful?
Or could we add an image – we have loads of India images

12. The India model is unique
Is it on brand to use script here?

13. Drivers of growth
India
Domestic
East and S.E. Asia
Exports

14. Drivers of growth India East and S.E. Asia Domestic Services Exports
Manufacturing

15. Drivers of growth India East and S.E. Asia Domestic Services
Consumption
East and S.E. Asia
Exports
Manufacturing
Investment

16. Drivers of growth India East and S.E. Asia Domestic Services
Consumption
High tech, capital intensive industry
East and S.E. Asia
Exports
Manufacturing
Investment
Low tech, labour intensive industry

17. Implications of India model
‘Domestically led’ means:
Insulation from global downturns
Less volatility
We will come out of the global crisis
faster
Could we add India image from file?
Make yellow title bullet and white sub bullets

18. Implication of India model
‘Services led’ raises uncomfortable questions:
Have we skipped the industrial revolution?
How do we take people from farms to cities?
Will SEZ’s be our tipping point?
Again could we add India image from file
Same with bullets and sub bullets

19. Implication of India model – Consumption led
People Friendly: Consumption as % of GDP
People Friendly, Less inequality: Gini Index
42%
64%
59%
33%
41%
Europe
China
India
U.S.
China
Brazil
India
58%
45%
animate
Will India become the next big consuming economy after the U.S.?

20. India’s success is market-led whereas China’s is state induced
Reasons for success
India’s success is market-led whereas China’s is state induced
The entrepreneur is at the centre of the Indian model
Centre up and change colour
Grow as two separate statements

21. Rise of globally competitive Indian companies
Centre these up – maybe make a little bigger?

22. India has a vibrant private space
100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn

23. India has a vibrant private space
100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment 23

24. India has a vibrant private space
100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment
125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India 24

25. India has a vibrant private space
100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment
125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India 25

26. India has a vibrant private space
100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment
125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India
2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China) 26

27. India has a vibrant private space
100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment
125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India
2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China)
80% credit goes to private sector (v~10% in China) 27

28. Public space is a problem
We have
Dynamic democracy with honest elections
Free, lively media and press
But we also have
Poor governance!

29. Governance Failures Not the minister caught with a bribe
1 out of 4 school teachers absent in
government schools
2 out of 5 doctors absent in primary health
centers
Delhi’s water
Land titles
Etc

30. Ironically, we used to have world class institutions from , but our problem was growth. Now we have growth, but our institutions are failing
Bureaucracy
Judiciary
Police
These should be bullet points- image search Indian Policeman?

31. The economy grows at night when the government is asleep
Image of Delhi at night from Google or istock?

33. Key reforms Opened economy to trade and investment Dismantled controls
Lowered tariffs
Dropped tax rates
Broke public sector monopolies 33

34. Understanding India’s economic success
Remarkable --every government has reformed (slowly)
since 1991
Even slow reforms add up
65 countries have done the same reforms – why did India
become the second fastest in the world?
Unappreciated fact – rule of law 34

35. “By 2010 India will have world’s largest number of English speakers” “When 300 million Indians speak a word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.”
Professor David Crystal Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language 35

36. Understanding India’s economic success
Mental revolution among the young
‘I want to be Bilgay’
Raju’s secret of success
Banianisation of society
180 TV channels; 65 news channels
The rise of Hinglish 36

37. Where are we today? Growth fell to 6.7% in 08-09; 7% in 09-10
Pain has been less than in China
Competitive companies have recovered faster.
Risk of protectionism has receded
Recovery has been ahead of the world

38. Where are we going?
Base case post recovery is 7.5 % – 8.5 % GDP growth
Democracy will not permit more than 8% unless you have a Thatcher
1.5% population growth
Demographic dividend – growth will continue beyond China’s
Make bullets consistent 38

39. Per capita income On a ppp basis 2000 2005 2020 2040 2066 10 20 30 4010 20 30 40
($000)
37,000
16,800
Y axis as a line
Please cut This means
5,800
3,050
2,100

40. Convergence in the 21st century
Why convergence is intuitive?
Convergence didn’t happen in the 20th century because the world was closed
Returning to a world of equality prior to 1750
When China and India accounted for 45% of world GDP
Make bullets consistent

41. India will gradually turn middle-class
West of the Kanpur- Chennai line
East of the Kanpur- Chennai line
50%
50%
Kanpur-
32%
22%
Animate graph
Chennai 8%
1980
2000
2010
2020
2040

42. What could stop the show?
Infrastructure
- Improving via public-private parterships
Fiscal Deficit
Governance
None of these stopped the show in the past 25 years
- Nuclear War?

43. Is reasonably good for the top 20% But it is abysmal for the rest
Education System
Is reasonably good for the top 20%
But it is abysmal for the rest
1 in 4 teachers is absent in government primary schools
Hence, 54% of children in urban India are in
private schools
Solution: Education Vouchers
Pic of Indian school kids?
Consistent bullet points

44. Caste system Origin of India’s caste system
Classical four castes vs 3000 jatis
Hostage to competitive politics
Source of competitive advantage
Affirmative action

45. Role of Religion India’s pluralism, diversity and tolerance Hinduism
Spiritual entrepreneurialism: Gurus
No hierarchy: Every Brahmin thinks he is the Pope
300 million gods: Lack of theological narcissism
Nasadiya Temper 2%
Sikh 1%
Christian
85%
Hindu
12%
Muslim
Please make a pie chart out of religious percentages
Make bullet points out of last 3 points

46. Elephant and not Tiger
India got democracy before capitalism and this has made all the difference
It is slower than China but its path is surer
However, an elephant at 8% growth is a formidable beast
We have waited 3000 years for this moment
India is more likely to preserve its way of life 46

47. The Wise Elephant
Could we find an Indian Elephant image? 47