1. Decision Making for All Leaders, Followers, Partners, Loners, and more!
Vincci Kwong
Indiana University South Bend
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

2. How do you make a decision?
For a recent purchase
For a project at work
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

3. Bad decision 2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
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4. Critical thinking and evaluation
Purpose / Goal
Question / Issue
Assumptions
Information / Data / Evidence
Reasoning
Conclusions / Implications
Alternatives
Clear
Accurate
Relevant / important
Sufficient
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Source: Variation on Gerald Nosich model
November 10, 2016

5. Potential biases on inputs
Perception
Memory
Numerical data
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

6. Perception Factors contribute to different perception includes:
self-concept, values, experience, beliefs, and culture.
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

7. Biases related to perception
Confirmation effect
Self-serving biases
Expectation bias
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

8. Memory 2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
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9. Biases related to memory
Subsequent information
Moral evaluation
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

10. Numerical data 2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
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11. Issues related to numerical data
Response bias
Representativeness
Framing
Pseudo opinions
Answer sets
Response scales
Social desirability
Allowing vs. Forbidding
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

12. Ways to avoid biases Be aware Actively look for other perspectives
Find objective data
Perception specific:
Focus on questions that both agree with and challenge our thinking
Try to take different point of views intentionally
Memory specific:
Keep notes
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

13. Heuristics A mental shortcut:
Solve problems and make judgements quickly and efficiently
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
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14. Issues related to heuristics
Availability
Representativeness
Anchoring
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
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15. Availability heuristic
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

16. Representativeness heuristic
A cognitive bias in which an individual categorizes a situation based on a pattern of previous experiences or beliefs about the scenario.
Question: Polly went to the store and bought tofu, eggplant, broccoli, and frozen meatless lasagna. Is it more likely that Mary is a woman or a woman who is a vegetarian?
Gambler’s Fallacy
Women
Vegetarian
&
Conjunction Fallacy
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

17. Anchoring
Use an initial piece of information to make subsequent judgments
How would you answer these two questions?
Is the population of Shanghai greater than 20 million?
What’s your best estimate of Shanghai’s population?
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

18. Avoiding heuristics pitfall
Recognize when you are using heuristic
Beware of biases associated with representativeness
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

19. Informal fallacies
Defects found in the content of the arguments. There are many ways arguments can be defective.
Fallacies of Relevance
Fallacies of ambiguity
Fallacies of the complex question
Fallacies of weak induction
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

20. Fallacies of relevance
Ad Hominem
Argument from popularity
Straw man
Appeal to tradition
Argument from the club
Sunk cost fallacy
Appeal to pity
Appeal to authority
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016

21. Fallacies of ambiguity
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
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22. Interested in more fallacies?
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
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23. Questions? Please feel free to contact me Vincci Kwong vkwong@iusb.edu
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
November 10, 2016