1. Is There a Teacher Shortage? A Policy Analytic View September 21, 2017
Joshua Cowen, Ph.D.
Katharine O. Strunk, Ph.D.
Education Policy Innovation Collaborative (EPIC)
Michigan State University

2. Introduction First a word on sources
Spoiler alert: teacher shortage is a complicated topic
Unlike other research areas, evidence on the question remains thin, draws from many other policy areas
As a result, today we’re going to lean heavily on the synthesized work of others
Especially Dee and Goldhaber (2017) who draw on a number of different studies—some focused on shortage per se but most on other inter-related topics

3. First Things First: Is There a Teacher Shortage?

4. First Things First: Is There a Teacher Shortage? News Coverage Says YES!

5. Challenges to Understanding Teacher Shortages
Anecdotal evidence can appear overwhelming
Many state, district and local leaders report staffing difficulties
Educator Preparation Institutions report declining enrollments
Shortage can be linked to, but is a separate issue from, other questions such as entry into teacher prep programs
Confounding trends: e.g. policy change, enrollment/population declines; economic changes especially for young adults

6. Challenges to Understanding Teacher Shortages
Labor markets vary between and within states
Context:
Economic conditions
Demographics
Geography
Legal/regulatory
Certification requirements
School finance structure
CBAs
Non-TPS competition

7. What Do We Even Mean by “Shortage”?
Why not just ask principals/supers/boards if they have the staff they need?
Acute v. chronic?
Or: short v. long run
Federal designations based on
Unfilled positions
Positions filled by temporary or emergency certificates
Positions filled by out-of-subject teachers

8. Measuring/Defining Shortage Is Important
How we measure and define shortage is the first step to identifying causes
Definitions, measures and causes both necessary to inform solutions because these tell us:
Where?
How much?
Why?

9. Measuring/Defining Shortage Is Important
In policymaking, measures often require benchmarks to carry meaning. Here:
Comparing “my state” to other states
Implications/solutions may be different if state trend is part of a larger, national problem
Comparing today to yesterday
Related to acute v. chronic
Comparing today to tomorrow
Projecting

10. What Does the Evidence Say?
Some indicators suggest shortage
California: upticks in permits/waivers (Darling-Hammond et al. 2017)
New York: tripling of teachers in non-certified subject (Dee and Goldhaber 2017)
Many others suggest robust supply of teachers:
Per-pupil ratio continues to fall
Number of education majors rose over the last three decades, only falling recently
Graduates still far outnumber hires (Cowan et al 2016)

11. What Does the Evidence Say?
Students far more likely to be taught by irregularly certified teacher if they are:
African American or Hispanic
Economically disadvantaged
Live in an urban or rural locale instead of a suburb
Administrators report far greater difficulty hiring for STEM and Special education positions
(Dee and Goldhaber 2017; Cowan et al 2016, Ingersoll 2003; Will 2016)

12. What Does the Evidence Say?

13. What Does the Evidence Say?
In sum:
There is little to indicate that there is the or even a great teacher shortage
In fact the market appears quite strong by some measures
There are however longstanding problems filling needs for some children, and some teacher subjects
In other words: the problem is not necessarily that we don’t have enough teachers, it’s that the teachers we do have are not distributed equally across schools, locations or subjects

14. Related Issues
Shortage can be caused by problems of both recruitment and retention
What is the role of teacher pay?
Mixed evidence on the role of teacher pay (e.g. Clotfelter et al 2010; Hanushek et al. 2007; Cowan and Goldhaber 2015):
Working conditions/student demographics may matter more when it comes to recruitment or retention
It appears to take less to pay a teacher to stay than it would to induce a new teacher from another school to come in

15. Related Issues
Shortage can be caused by problems of both recruitment and retention
What else do we know about where teachers choose to teach?
Relative to similarly trained professions, teaching is a highly local market: teachers tend to work near where they grew up or student-taught (Boyd, et al. 2004; Reininger 2012; Goldhaber et al. 2014)
But is this because of teacher or administrator preferences or both?
Also, teachers are fairly immobile. Some transfers out of high needs schools especially within-districts but local agreements often discourage cross-district moves

16. Related Issues
Up until now we’ve only talked about the number of teachers
What about the number of effective teachers?
Would policies increasing supply by recruiting or retaining less effective teachers benefit kids?
Especially when we know shortages are concentrated among high minority and poor communities?
Certification alone does not appear to tell us much (Boyd et al 2007; Goldhaber 2010) and neither does years of education per se, but training in subject, especially in math, does appear to matter (Clotfelter, et al. 2010; Dee and Cohodes 2008)
What is the role of teacher experience?

17. Potential Solutions
Targeted financial incentives where they are needed
Across the board increases in teacher pay are prohibitively expensive and there is little evidence that higher salaries overall increase effectiveness
New resources for hard-to-staff schools and, within schools, shortage subject areas (e.g. STEM and special ed) may be both feasible and effective.
Frontload salary schedules, especially for high-need teachers (e.g., Grissom & Strunk, 2012)

18. Potential Solutions Start early Build a strong bench
Late hiring (concentrated in hard-to-staff areas) reduce position-teacher match re: both retention and achievement
Identifying positions of need early, making future projections
Build a strong bench
Evidence suggests student teaching can be an effective way to develop future supply of teachers, with internship location even more important to placement than EPI or hometown (Goldhaber et al 2016)
Make field placements available in areas of anticipated future need

19. Potential Solutions Role of state regs/laws
Many permanent certification requirements may dissuade early or mid-career applicants
As we’ve already seen, certification and ed major do little on average to predict teacher effectiveness (except perhaps in math)
Changing economic realities: young people don’t often make lifelong career decisions at age 19 and ed majors are not “portable”
More flexible permanent alternative certification especially in STEM or special education may help
State reciprocity for out-of-state licensures
Centralized information systems for career prospects, the field of teaching

20. Summary The national picture still favorable re: teacher supply
Overall ,000 more graduates from Educator Preparation Institutions than positions available nationally
Problem is where they want to teach, and what
STEM and special education shortages more widespread
Minority, poor, urban and rural students face more shortage
These are the same students facing other historical disadvantage on the basis of race, income, etc…

21. Summary
These patterns imply problems rooted in causes that go beyond the teaching profession per se, and even beyond education itself
This suggests solutions may begin in districts and state agencies but cannot be limited to them
Role of legislatures and executive branch in governing policy beyond education
Role of federal government