1. Philine Warnke and Gaston Heimeriks IPTS
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006
Technology Foresight as Innovation Policy Instrument –
Learning from Science and Technology Studies
Philine Warnke and Gaston Heimeriks
IPTS

2. Introduction Outline of the argument
Learning from Science and Technology Studies
Introduction
Outline of the argument
Rationale: Explore STS as interpretative framework for Technology Foresight and using these insights to enrich concept and practice
Four modes of Foresight as RTI policy support
Science and technology Studies (STS): the social shaping of technologies
Implications of STS for Foresight
Conclusions and Discussion

3. Foresight … … A process of systematic collective reasoning
Learning from Science and Technology Studies
Foresight …
… A process of systematic collective reasoning
about the future
not predicting a pre-determined future but exploring how the future might evolve in different ways depending on the actions of various players and decisions taken ‘today’.
Thinking the Future
involving the relevant stakeholders.
Results are disseminated and discussed among a wide audience.
FORESIGHT
Open
Participatory
Action oriented
Debating the Future
Shaping the Future
Not only analysing or contemplating future developments but supporting actors in actively shaping the future

4. Technology Foresight? Learning from Science and Technology Studies
Foresight does not always focus on Technology issues and if it does usually adopts a holistic approach, but
Research, Technology and Innovation policy makers are often the clients so the recommendations do address activities directed at technological development
Almost any future relevant issue will involve technological elements
adequate concept of technological development crucial for majority of Foresight approaches

5. Foresight supporting Innovation Policy
Learning from Science and Technology Studies
Foresight supporting Innovation Policy
Four Dimensions
Systemic innovation policy instrument
enhancing self-organisation through learning and experimenting, facilitating management of interfaces, fostering new alignments of elements, providing "distributed intelligence"
Orienting innovation towards societal needs
as a forum for exchange between demand and supply perspective,and societal value articulation orient innovation towards societal needs and future users’ demands in an early phase of the innovation trajectory
Agenda setting process
evoke certain expectations towards a technology and thereby motivate actors to mobilise resources and invest in certain innovations
Providing anticipatory intelligence
understanding of dynamics of change based on a diversity of knowledge sources as a base for future oriented decision making

6. Science and Technology Studies
Learning from Science and Technology Studies
Science and Technology Studies
A brief overview
Opening the Black Box of technology:
Technologies are not a given, but man-made constructs. They are the products of cultural evolution, with different definitions, perceptions, and are continuously evolving in a social context.
The socio-economic patterns embedded in both the content of technologies and the processes of innovation are exposed and analysed in SST studies showing that technology does not develop according to an inner technical logic but is instead a social product, patterned by the conditions of its creation and use.
Focus of analysis: Co-evolution of technology and society

7. The Co-evolution of Society and Technology
Learning from Science and Technology Studies
The Co-evolution of Society and Technology
Theoretical Perspectives
Socio-technical regimes
variation and selection shaped interplay between various levels of socio-economic framework
Interpretative flexibility
Negotiation among social groups with their different interests on interpretation of new artefacts leads to continuous process of opening and closing of socio-technical options (Bijker et al)
Heterogeneous engineers
Actors pursuing alignment of material and social elements within heterogenous networks (Law & Callon)
Socio-technical Stabilisation
Emergence of dominant designs and "lock-in”: network effects,role of embedding in infrastucture
QWERTY keyboard

8. The Co-evolution of Society and Technology
Learning from Science and Technology Studies
The Co-evolution of Society and Technology
Insights I
Relevance of downstream phase of innovation
embedding into socio-cultural context as highly relevant part of innovation trajectory
co-construction of users and technology;
Variation constraints
at the same time design process structured through embedding into existing framework (e.g. socio-technical regimes: firm routines, best practice rules etc. and cultural settings: images of use(rs), perception

9. The Co-evolution of Society and Technology
Learning from Science and Technology Studies
The Co-evolution of Society and Technology
Insights II
Role of visions and expectations
Major impact of shared expectations among specific groups of actors and wider society on technological trajectories
local/universal translations
The same technology might be incorporated into different socio-technical patterns in different socio-cultural contexts
socio-technical patterns that have been developed on a local level need to be translated before they can feed into universal patterns forming the structuring regime for again other innovation activities.

10. Implications for Foresight
Learning from Science and Technology Studies
Implications for Foresight
Learning from STS
Foresight as process moderator, yes but
mapping of relevant actors not at all trivial (user side!) involvement of social scientists needed
Foresight as expectation management, yes but
linear/narrow visions can be barriers
need for richness on societal side
more emphasis on creative elements?
Understanding of dynamics of change, yes but
need to look at embedding into societal context to describe ‘real world’ technology trajectories relevant for policy
Localisation through Foresight
relevance of local Foresight even for ‘universal’ technology

11. Need to involve social scientists
Learning from Science and Technology Studies
Conclusions
Foresight from an STS perspective
STS insights do confirm
the relevance of Foresight as systemic innovation policy instrument
the possibility for policy to impact on innovation trajectories through Foresight activities
But also highlight critical issues
need for more diligent consideration of societal changes and in particular seriously consider appropriation of technologies
mapping of actor arena critical
need to consider type of vision needed for purpose
Need to involve social scientists

12. Outlook Some open issues for further thought ...
Learning from Science and Technology Studies
Outlook
Some open issues for further thought ...
How to feed a holistic socio-technical analysis into a fragmented policy arena?
should we rather say how to fund RTI than what to fund?
How can we go from fostering innovation capability to orienting innovation towards desired onjectives (sustainability, quality of life ...)?
should Foresight link up to other instruments such as strategic niche management et al

13. Thank you ... for your attention!
Learning from Science and Technology Studies
Thank you ...
for your attention!