1. (1) 2017 ENSO Forecast Zeng-Zhen Hu （胡增臻）
(2) NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) Predicted Precipitation and T2m Anomalies in JJA 2017
Zeng-Zhen Hu
（胡增臻）
13th Session of Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII), April 24-26, 2017, Beijing, China

2. Animation of NMME Forecasts during 2015-16 (Michelle L’Heureux)
Observed (daily OISST)

3. Animation of NMME Forecasts during 2015-16 (Michelle L’Heureux)
Observed (daily OISST)

4. (1) 2017 ENSO Forecast

5. EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 April 2017
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017, with increasing chances for El Niño development by late summer and fall.

6. IRI NINO3.4 Forecast Plume
Most dynamical models favor El Niño during the early Northern Hemisphere summer 2017, while statistical models favor ENSO- neutral through the Northern Hemisphere autumn 2017.

7. Individual Model Forecasts: neutral or El Nino
EC: Nino3.4, IC=01 Apr 2017
JMA: Nino3, IC=Apr 2017
Australia: Nino3.4, IC=9 Apr 2017
UKMO: Nino3.4, IC=Apr 2017

8. Failure Forecast in 2012: IC in March and April 2012

9. (2) NMME Predicted Precipitation and T2m Anomalies in JJA 2017(
Eight Models:
NCEP_CFSv2
CMC1_CanCM3
CMC2_CanCM4
GFDL_FLOR
GFDL_CM2.1
NCAR_CESM
NCAR_CCSM4
NASA_GEOS5
IC: Apr 2017
Target Season: JJA (Lead 2-4 months)
Display: Ensemble Mean Anomaly; Anomaly Probability; Skill

10. NMME Predicted JJA Precipitation ANOMALY (IC: Apr 2017)

11. NMME Predicted JJA Precipitation PROBALITY (IC: Apr 2017)

12. JJA Precipitation Prediction Skill of NMME
(IC: Apr; Lead=2-4 Month; Target JJA)

13. NMME Predicted JJA T2m ANOMALY (IC: Apr 2017)

14. NMME Predicted JJA T2m PROBALITY (IC: Apr 2017)

15. JJA T2m Prediction Skill of NMME (IC: Apr; Lead=2-4 Month; Target JJA)

16. More Information
CPC Webpage:
Statement: This presentation is made during personal leave. The scientific results and conclusions, as well as any view or opinions expressed herein, are those of myself and do not necessarily reflect the views of NWS, NOAA, or the Department of Commerce.

17. http://www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso

18. Differences of D20 Evolution in 2011/12 and 2016/17