1. Patterns of Conflict and Cooperation in Northern Europe
Prof. Dr. Mindaugas Jurkynas
Vytautas Magnus University (Kaunas)

2. Plan Small states What can a small state do in the EU?
The role of regions in the EU
Conflict and Cooperation
in Northern Europe

3. What is a small state?

4. Conceptions of Small States
Treaty of Vienna
19th Century ( )
Small states are all that are not considered 6 Great Powers
(Germany, Great Britain, France,
Russia, Austria-Hungary, Italy)
20th Century
Number of states kept rising
Small states were all those states that were not great powers and that were not consistently insisting on being referred to as middle powers (Australia, Canada)

5. Traditionalist view of small states
1) are not able to preserve their own autonomy in the face of force;
2) have a narrow range of action;
3) have little to say about which games are being played and how;
4) have only a small stake in the system and are unable to act for its sake.

6. What makes a small state?
The problems looming for each nation are determined by objective factors of territory size, geography, climate and habitat; but also by political features of the neighbourhood and larger region, the level and direction of economic development, and human and societal factors including population movements and tourism

7. Small states are defined in relational terms
Being a small state is tied to a specific historical and geographic context, not a general characteristic of the state.
Small state is not defined by indicators such as its absolute population size or size of GDP.
a small state is defined by being the weak part in an asymmetric relationship.
small states in Europe share features involving the small scale of material and human resources, and thus limited options in both military and non-military security provision.

8. What do small states usually do?
How the small state can best hope to protect its territorial integrity, political sovereignty, national identity and freedom of action?
3 dimensions: military/strategic, economic, and non-military
Two broad strategic options:
a defensive posture focused on autonomy and avoiding trouble, as neutrality;
or a proactive posture: cooperative schemes (national and international partnerships, organizations, regional and global activism)
small state is prima facie more prone than the average to seek solutions through external engagement and partnership

9. Determining the Size of a State
Traditional Criteria:
New Criteria
Population
Fixed Size
Territory
Sovereignty Size
GDP
Political Size
Military Capacity
Economic Size
Perceptual Size
Preference Size

10. New Criteria Domestic and International Evaluation Action Competence
Ability to formulate and implement policies domestically or internationally
Vulnerability
The degree to which a state is domestically or internationally vulnerable

11. New Criteria Fixed Size Sovereignty Size Population Size
Territorial Size
Sovereignty Size
Domestic control and legitimacy
Domestic state structure
Foreign perception of state sovereignty

12. New Criteria Political Size
Military capability determined by spending and sophistication
Administrative capability:
Size of bureaucracy and foreign service

13. New Criteria Perceptual Size
Domestic and international actors’ perceptions of the state’s size
Six features:
Views of the domestic political elite
Views of the electorate
The views of domestic actors
Thoughts of other states’ political elite
International organizations’ perceptions (such as IGOs)
Other international perceptions (such as those of NGOs)

14. National Preferences on the EU are Affected by
Left-Right Government
Legacies of World War II
Income from the EU Budget
People’s Attitudes Towards the EU

15. What can a small state to in the EU?
Objective and Subjective Factors
Objective: Institutional structure, norms and rules, state power (population, size, vallue added, geopolitical location)
Subjective: Country’s political, social and economic practices, persuasive ideas, valid demands, reliability, consistency
Small states can upload if they employ subjective criteria and find COALITION PARTNERS IN THEIR REGION AND BEYOND
Šis veiksnių išskyrimas remiasi Helen Wallace schema. Ji teigia, kad įtaką tarptautinėse struktūrose lemia dvi pagrindinės veiksnių grupės – objektyvūs ir subjektyvūs veiksniai. Objektyviais veiksniais laikytinos institucinė sąranga, taisyklės ir normos bei objektyvūs valstybės galios rodikliai, apibrėžiami gyventojų skaičiumi, šalies dydžiu, sukuriama pridėtine verte ir geopolitine padėtimi – kitaip tariant, tai veiksniai, kurie dažniausiai yra labai pastovūs ir visiškai arba labai minimaliai paveikiami atskiro tos struktūros veikėjo. Valstybė, siekdama didinti savo įtaką, turi mažai galių paveikti šiuos veiksnius. Subjektyvūs veiksniai apima konkrečios valstybės charakteristikas: šalies politinė ir socialinė bei ekonominė praktika, įtikinamos idėjos, pagrįsti reikalavimai, patikimumas ir nuoseklumas. Šių veiksnių kontrolei valstybės turi daugiau galių. Svarbu atkreipti dėmesį į tai, kad ES studijose plačiai paplitusi prielaida, jog daugiausia įtakos ES politikos procesui daro didžiosios valstybės narės, kurios mažiau susijusios ekonominiais ryšiais su kitomis ES šalimis ir turi didesnę derybinę galią. Tačiau ES istorija rodo, kad ir mažos šalys gali daryti įtaką ES, jei kryptingai veikia išnaudodamos minėtus subjektyvius veiksnius. 15

16. Cleavages in the EU
No Permanent Coalitions – Depends on Question, still…
North-South
Big-Small
Atlantic-Continental
Free Trade-Protectionism
Givers-Takers

17. How can one study regions?
Inside -out
Outside –in
Region-building

18. Inside-out approaches highlight possibilities for cooperation
Inside-out approaches highlight possibilities for cooperation. Outside-in approaches are often predicated on the continuous possibilities for conflict within the region.  theorists may combine two approaches without giving a priori preference to any one of them. Inside-out theories tend to postulate a plethora of actors on the societal level. Outside-in theories tend to concentrate on the levels of the system and of states

19. Region building
Region – building approach feeds on two specific insights offered by students of genealogies.
 First , the focus on the politically constitutive and politically motivated clash of definitions,  which is not a one – off incident, but rather a perpetual process.
Secondly the proposed method of enquiry.  Rather than seeing discourse as reflective of some external political reality, these authors see it as politically constitutive.
 Region are defined in term of speech acts  they are talked and written into existence.

20. Sub-topics What is Baltic? Nordic Identities Nordic-Baltic Region?
Russia and the Baltics
Eastern Dimension
Baltic Sea Strategy

21. Define Baltic

22. What is “Baltic”?
The location of the Baltic is in fact more a question of awareness than of geography, but that awareness has to be guided and educated. [O]ld legacies continue to dog the states formerly under Soviet domination, whilst new opportunities may undermine the fragile sense of regional community. There is much to be done. Defining the Baltic at the beginning of a new millennium is thus an exciting challenge for all who study the region (Kirby 1999).

23. Baltics in the 21st century
No more ‘Eastern Europe’
Wanna be Northern Europe – opinion polls, branding
UK-Nordic (Baltic) dimension (EPINE)

24. Regional trajectories in the Baltics
Quantification of narratives
4 main regions: Baltic, Northern, Baltic sea, Central (and Eastern) Europe

25. Frequencies of regional references in the neutral context before and after 2004

26. State self-affiliation to the region before and after 2004 EU/NATO enlargement
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Central (and Eastern) Europe
Medium
Low
Baltic sea
Medium→
Norden
High
High→
Baltic

27. Compatibility of regional images before and after 2004 EU/NATO enlargement
Common Denominator
Modern/Postmodern
Central (and Eastern) Europe
Medium→Low
Soviet Past, Freedom,
NATO/EU membership→ Soviet Past
Modern
Baltic sea
High→Medium
Soft Security
Modern/
Postmodern
Norden
Medium
Political and economic Partnership
Place in Northern Europe
Baltic
High
NATO/EU membership →Security Problems, Political Partnership, Baltic Tigers

28. What is Nordic?

29. Summing Up
Nordic: Common denominator: Nordic is defined as a welfare system and a role of the state in public policy.
Baltic: The Baltic region is seen as a different geographical region not; the Baltic states are not mentioned very often, mostly in relation to the Baltic Sea Region.

30. BVP per Capita
1997
2000
2004
2008
2009
2010
2011
EU-27
100
EU-15
115
113
111
110
Estonia 42 45 57 68 64 67
Latvia 35 37 46 56 52 51 58
Lithuania 39 50 61 55 66
Denmark
133
132
126
120
121
127
125
Finland
117
116
114
Sweden
124
128
122
118
123
Norway
147
165
192
176
181
186
Iceland
137
131
Relative GDP per capita

31. Find
facebook.com/TSPMI

45. Two Groups: Baltics are New Nordic?

46. Similarities, differences and challenges
‘Go Norden!’ in politics
NB as a means, not goal per se
Baltic as Nordic: UN distribution, historical links, Nordic Assistance, NIB, no historical complexes, NB6(8), Nordpool
Similarities: small, dynamic, norm entrepreneurs, party systems, sound public finances, political economic partnership, FDIs
Differences: Welfare state, Human rights, Underdeveloped West, antiimigration, consensus democracies, euroscepticism, gender equality
Challenges: Financial, lack of knowledge, identity related, modern-postmodern

48. Russia and the Baltic States
Russia is essential for the region
Russia does not focus on BSR cooperation
Desecuritisation is not a Fact yet
National identity in Russia focus on the USSR
Clash of identities and principles in the BSR

49. Unfriendly countries to Russia, %
2005
2006
2010
2011
2012
2013 US 23 37 35 45 26 33 38
Georgia 44 46 62 57 50 41
Latvia 36 21
Lithuania 42 32 34 25 17
Estonia 28 60 30 16
Ukraine 13 27 20 15 11

50. Fears and Concerns:
Russian embargoes of energy and food supplies for many countries (Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Poland, Moldova, Georgia, Czech Republic), cyber attacks, war with Georgia, unresolved homicide abroad (UK) and at home, control of media and elections, violation of human rights, destruction of political opponents and business circles, spread of propaganda and revision of history, Putin 2.0, Pussy Riot. Magnitsky.

51. Emergence of the BSR
No BSR during Cold War
Role of CBSS

52. EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region
BSS focuses on soft security
No more funding, institutions or legislation
Positive aspects: highest political attention in the EU, Need for dialogue with Russia after 8/8/8 and inclusion of Belarus
Old stories: BSS like CBSS focuses on low politics, similarity to ND
Liberal approach with the stress on cooperation in low politics and postmodern daydreaming about a wider security community of tomorrow in BSR (EU’s logic)

53. BSS Challenges No BSR identity yet Economic crisis and resource drain
Bilateralism
Tensions with Southern Dimension and Mediterranean (enlargements, ND, 600 mio euro for Eastern Partnership)
Modern and postmodern cleavage
Russia’s preference on ND than BSS
Competitive synergy: overlapping agendas and absence of division of cooperative functions
Competition between CBSS and ND