1. Food in a Carbon Economy
Research at the AERU
Dr Bill Kaye-Blake
Deputy Director

2. Overview Market access Agricultural sustainability Trade impacts
Some conclusions

3. Market access Agricultural sustainability Trade impacts Some conclusions

4. International concerns
Climate change
How bad?
What to do?
Food prices
Prices spiked in
Caused political problems
Health and sustainability
Personal, social, environmental

5. 5+ a day
obesity
diabetes
antioxidants
rice bran oil
free radicals
body mass index
Atkins Diet
carbon footprint
grapefruit diet
anorexia
glycaemic index
food miles
beta-glucan

6. Food miles research Food miles AERU research
Concept – consumers should be concerned about how far their food travels
Distance ≈ social and environmental ills
AERU research
Prof Saunders in 2006, 2007
NZ more energy and carbon efficient – lamb, dairy, onions – than same product in UK

7. Choice modelling research
Estimating prices for attributes
Organic
Country of origin
Non-GM
Segmenting markets
Some people care a lot
Lots of people care a little
Some people are driven mainly by price

9. Re-theorising food consumption
Food anxiety is primary
Fischler, Levi-Strauss
Key: fixed and stable preferences cannot lead to anxiety
Anxiety requires agency, the ability to choose
Lacanian theory: the symbolic order around food creates a split subject

10. Market access Agricultural sustainability Trade impacts Some conclusions

11. ARGOS programme Agriculture Research Group on Sustainability
Monitoring over 100 farms for 8 years
Panels: organic, conventional, other
Multi-disciplinary analysis of sustainability
After 6 years, starting to see some results

12. Economic findings
Some differences in specific costs or revenues (labour, veterinary, other)
No bottom-line differences
Organic vs. conventional sheep & beef
Organic vs. conventional kiwifruit
Conclusion: both systems economically sustainable at farm level

13. Farm financial aggregates

14. Multi-disciplinary analysis
Some environmental differences found
Soil, earthworms, birds
Correlated with organic/conventional
Organic farm soils have more carbon
Some social differences found
Economic and social differences correlated

15. Market access Agricultural sustainability Trade impacts Some conclusions

16. LTEM Lincoln Trade and Environment Model
Partial equilibrium model of trade in agricultural commodities
Includes energy and greenhouse gases
19 countries, 22 commodities (divided into conventional/organic or GM/non-GM)

17. Biofuels Modelled impact of US biofuel policy on world markets
Corn prices and exports affected
Livestock products marginally affected
Changes nearly wiped out by technology change in biofuel
So: world can adjust to some biofuel use

18. World price impacts Per cent changes 15 billion gallons ethanol (+37%)
15 b gall + 10% productivity gain
Corn
15.15
8.28
Beef and veal
0.93
0.52
Sheep
1.06
0.60
Poultry
1.11
0.63
Whole milk powder
0.59
0.33
Butter
0.78
0.44

19. Food price rise Modelled Price rise smaller than actually observed
Australian and US drought
Chinese demand
Biofuel demand
Combined
Price rise smaller than actually observed
So: either model needs work, or we need additional explanations

20. Market access Agricultural sustainability Trade impacts Some conclusions

21. Main points Carbon is just one issue
Carbon-efficient food production may not require trade-off with economic success, even at current prices
International trade will adapt to and smooth out negative shocks (if allowed to)
New technology will lessen impacts

22. Food impacts on carbon Food industry can help sequester carbon
Organics consumption raises soil carbon
Small impact because of market size
Future impacts
Depend on the market access filter
Depend on consumer behaviour

23. Carbon impacts on food Food prices barely affected
Small segment
High willingness to pay
Farm economic sustainability not affected
Future impacts
Raise profile of organics
Reduce move to forestry

24. Food and carbon signals
Farm resources
Forestry
Biofuel
Food
Market access filter
Inferior markets
‘Good food’
Consumers
Food and carbon signals
Carbon signals

25. PPP Carbon sequestration and Food
Output Gap

26. PPP results How do we fill the gap? Gap lessens as carbon price drops
Buy less
Waste less
Change food portfolio preferences
Gap lessens as carbon price drops
New technology in either sequestration or food production helps

27. Food in a carbon economy
Short term: small price impacts, but overwhelmed by other factors
C sequestered – little now, potentially more
Consumer reactions key to prices
But not linked to reality of carbon or climate
Much more about self-identity as consumer
Filtered through market access
Caveat: depends on availability of energy