1. Assessment-Based National Dialogue Step 2:
Taking Assessment recommendations forward
Costing SPF Coverage Gaps: Methodology and First Results
Bangkok, Wednesday 30 November, 2011
Celine Felix, ILO Social Protection Consultant, Bangkok

2. Agenda 1. Our framework: the Social Protection Floor
2. The Assessment National Dialogue
3. Today’s dialogue

3. 1.Our framework: the Social Protection Floor
According to the SPF framework, all the population should enjoy four guarantees
Access to health care
Income security for children
Minimum income for the working age
Income security for the elderly and the disabled
Formal sector (20% population)
Poor and near poor & Informal economy
(80% population)
Additional contributory benefits
Objective 1 - Social Protection Floor
Entitlement to at least a minimum level of benefits
Horizontal dimension
Adapted social insurance
Objective 2 – Higher levels of income security:
-statutory social insurance
-voluntary insurance
Etc.
Objective 3- Beyond the floor
Vertical dimension
No one size fits-all
Realizing human rights and social justice
Combatting poverty and inequality
Promote decent work

4. 2. Assessment-Based National Dialogue Process : Three key questions
Question 1: How do we define our Thai floor?
“ While adopted as a global concept, each country should decide to design and implement shaped within a framework of national specific institutional structures, economic structures, political dynamics and social aspirations” Bachelet Report
Question 2: What are the existing social protection provisions in Thailand (SPF level or higher) and what are related gaps?
Question 3: How much would it cost to close these gaps?

5. Assessment-Based National Dialogue Process
1. ASSESSMENT MATRIX (INVENTORY OF SCHEMES, GAPS AND IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES, RECOMMENDATIONS)
 NATIONAL DIALOGUE # 1
2. RAP PROTOCOL: DATA COLLECTION FOR THE COSTING, TRANSLATION OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS INTO SCENARIOS, COSTING SOME OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS 
 NATIONAL DIALOGUE # 2 (Today!)
3. FINALIZATION OF THE ASSESSMENT - 

6. Assessment matrix
We used the Social Protection Floor Framework with the four guarantees as benchmark to review all existing schemes in Thailand … Not only social assistance programs!
… With the objective to look not only at schemes implemented. planned at central level, but also at decentralized level and/ or implemented by the community as long as they provide/ have the potential to provide rights based, systemic, predictable protection

7. Bilateral Consultations
How did we proceed?
Desk review (June 2011 with inputs of UN agencies)
Bilateral Consultations
(July)
Consultative meeting
August 10
Met with MSDHS,NESDB, SSO, HISRO, TDRI, Social Partners, Chulalonkorn University, HelpAge, FoPDEV, Actors working on HIV sensitive social protection, Mahidol University

8. Existing provisions
Recommendations/ priorities
Gaps/issues
What are existing programs?
Health care
New schemes
Recommendations
Expansion of existing schemes
Higher levels of benefits
Analysis: Is all population covered? Are benefits adequate? Other issues??
Income security for children
Minimum income for working age
Policy gaps & Implementation issues
Income security for elderly/disabled

9. Our Assessment matrix
Describe present and planned SP provisions: legal framework, overview of schemes, indicators
Identify design gaps and implementation issues
Priority policy options decided through national dialogue
SPF Guarantees: Health / Children / Working Age / Elderly

10. The Official story (legal coverage) The effective coverage
Define the gaps and the design of related benefits to close them

11. National dialogue # 1 Objectives:
Share / refresh about the SPF concept and framework
Discuss the diagnostic made of Social Security situation with main stakeholders
Complete the Assessment Matrix
Formulate jointly (in group works using the World Café exercise) recommendations to bridge the Social Protection gaps and overcome implementation issues
Link to meeting report:

12. National dialogue # 1

13. National dialogue # 1

14. National dialogue # 1

15. National dialogue # 1

16. RAP PROTOCOL: Data collection for the costing, building scenarios, preliminary costing
Translation of recommendations from consultations and consultative meeting on the Social Protection Floor (August 10, 2011) into “costable” scenarios
Policy options/ scenarios described for each guarantee with eligibility criteria, take up rate, benefit amount, benefit indexation, administration costs, additional costs
Scenarios include:
Status quo
Increase of the number of people covered
Introduction of new benefit
Increase of benefit amount

17. Costing with the RAP Protocol
LABOUR MARKET MODEL
LABOUR MARKET
DEMOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK
Simplistic and adaptable projections
Allows estimations of future costs of cash transfer elements of the SPF
Allows a “reality check”
How much in Bahts? % of GDP? % of Budget
MACROECONOMIC MODEL
GENERAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS MODEL
BENEFITS COSTING EXERCISE
SUMMARY AND RESULTS

18. National dialogue # 2: TODAY!!
Objectives:
Morning session:
Understand the need for social protection costing and actuarial models (with ILO, HISRO, UNESCO)
Afternoon session:
Validate the assumptions used for the RAP protocol
Share the results of the first costing
Confirm the scenarios or propose new scenarios and cost them
What Next?
Discuss on the next steps to push the Floor Forward
The Role of the SPF in post disaster situation
Discussion on Cost, Affordability and Financing (Dr Somchai, TDRI)
Discussion with policy makers, decisions on the next steps