1. Jorden er ikke flat, ikke havet heller
Jan Even Øie nilsen
Jorden er ikke flat, ikke havet heller
Bjerknesdagen bergen

2. Havoverflaten er ikke flat
200 meter høydeforskjell

3. Havoverflaten stiger ulikt
0 = Tuvalu
Global mean ≈3 mm (1992–2012)
Globalt gjennomsnitt
Tuvalu

4. Fremskrivinger av havstigning frem til 210080 40
-40 cm
Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources.
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.
Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m).
RCP4.5

5. Havstigning på grunn av flere prosesser80 40
-40 cm
Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources.
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.
Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m).
RCP4.5

6. Smelting av is på land Gravitational attraction
Reduced gravitational attraction
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.

7. Landhevning etter istid
NÅTID
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.
IMAGE The Northern Hemisphere at the end of the last Ice Age (10,000 years ago)

8. Varmeutvidelse og havstrømmer
Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources.
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.
Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m).

9. Varmeutvidelse og havstrømmer
Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources.
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.
Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m).

10. Ulike bidrag og ujevn stigning
Smelting av iskapper
Smelting av breer 10
-10 25 20 15
Varmeutvidelse og havstrømmer
Landhevning
Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources.
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.
Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m).
RCP4.5
-10 10 20 30 cm

11. Samlet havstigning frem til 210035 80 40
-40 cm 55
Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources.
RCP4.5

12. Takk for oppmerksomheten!

13. Sjøis har ingen effekt på havnivå
Bilde
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