1. Methods for Forecasting Style of Play in Soccer
Opposition Analysis:
Methods for Forecasting Style of Play in Soccer
Devin Pleuler
Manager of Analytics
Toronto Football Club
Bret Myers
Analytics Consultant
Toronto Football Club
Villanova University

2. Provide data-driven tactical insight
Motivations
Provide data-driven tactical insight

3. The Data

4. Pass Components

5. k-Means Clustering (in python)
from sklearn.cluster import KMeans
model = KMeans(n_clusters=50).fit(training_data)
for pass in test_data:
cluster = model.predict(pass)
n = 214,340

6. Example Cluster

7. Example Clusters

8. Average Position of Clusters

9. Cluster Symmetry

10. Pass Volume Distribution

11. Team Passes per Cluster

12. Can past tactics predict future tactics?
Is this predictive?
Can past tactics predict future tactics?
(and how do we measure it?)

13. Is this predictive?
Game Number

14. Mean absolute percentage error
Is this predictive?
where At is the actual value and Ft is the forecast value.
Mean absolute percentage error

15. Is this predictive?

16. (Pearson Correlation)
Team Similarity
(Pearson Correlation)

17. Example Team Clusters

18. Example Team Clusters

19. Example Team Clusters

20. Chaining Passes into Sequences
What’s Next?
Chaining Passes into Sequences

21. Pass Chaining

22. Pass Chaining

23. Individual Player Tendencies
What Else is Next?
Individual Player Tendencies

24. Individual Player Tendencies

25. Thanks!