1. System information provision

2. Information What additional information transparency would help us to:
Understand what system flexibility is
Understand how it is being used now
Predict future requirements
Help define any possible services / incentives / products etc
The aim is to ensure that the system and services required by customers are available when required.

3. Potential drivers for future changes in system usage
LCPD leading to reduction in coal generation
Expected increases in wind powered generation
Change in storage services
Evolving DNO offtake flexibility requirements
Evolving Entry flow characteristics

4. Gas & electricity interaction
Increased volatility driven by weather and operational characteristic of new generation plant:
High wind load factors could result in little CCGT use
large amounts of wind generation
Low wind load factors could result in a sudden and large swings in gas demand
Combination of extra cold weather and additional CCGT demand
Could result in significant change in gas demand within-day
Could see CCGTs operating with lower load factors but greater / shorter notice frequency
Demand volatility (particularly within day) requires flexibility in:
Supplies,
Demands, and
Networks

5. Potential developments for October 2009
Areas to consider:
Service Definition – What is Flexibility (if not definition used under 195AV) ?
Demand volatility within day
Change in linepack across the day?
Delta change in demand/linepack during the day (high point vs low point)
Flows vs forecast
Any other views?

6. Potential Information for October 2009
Possible areas:
General level of flow change – eg 1/24th vs actual hourly flows (National, zonal, by exit /entry point type)
Predictability – Outturn versus earlier notification/forecast
Impact on Linepack
Already obligated by 0195v to publish hourly linepack data on zonal level from Bring this forward to 2009?
Open to users views on what would help them understand the situation better

7. Graphs
Following graphs show typical changes on the system on a typical day and may help identify the type of information users would find helpful.

8. Example of current Demand flow rates

9. Example of current flows by Offtake types

10. Predictability – Total CCGT OPNs vs actual

11. Linepack variation within day (195AV data at National Level)

12. Summary
The Graphs show potential for deriving indicators of change in flow variation / predictability based on existing data
Over time these indicators would give signals on whether flows were becoming more volatile and/or less predictable.
Would potentially provide better clarity on the types of products/services that customers want going forward
What information would the industry find valuable in making their own assessment of future flexibility requirements ?
Do users see value in holding a specific workshop(s) to identify user requirements in this area ?