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Goalies Are Voodoo. 1.

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Presentation on theme: "Goalies Are Voodoo. 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Goalies Are Voodoo. 1

2 The End. 2

3 Just kidding. (kind of) 3

4 Establishing New Baselines For Goaltender Analysis
Predictions 5v5 adjGSAA/60 Application Cat Photo Cat Photo Concept Predictive Model Ratings Chart 4

5    What is 5v5 adjGSAA/60? Adjusted for Danger Zone
How many more/fewer goals allowed by Our Hero than if a league average goalie faced the same LD, MD, and HD shot volume? +/ Minute Rate League average is 0. Control For Situation and Environment 5v5; empirical league-wide sh%. 5

6 Danger Zones Peter Mark

7 Improving Comparative Tools
7

8    What is 5v5 adjGSAA/60? Adjusted for Danger Zone
How many more/fewer goals allowed by Our Hero than if a league average goalie faced the same LD, MD, and HD shot volume? +/ Minute Rate League average is 0. Control For Situation and Environment 5v5; empirical league-wide sh%; compare across seasons 8

9 ((LGSAA+MGSAA+HGSAA)/goalie TOI)/60 = adjGSAA/60
Formula (total LD shots faced by Our Hero)*(1 - LD lg avg sv%) - LD goals allowed by Our Hero = LGSAA (total MD shots faced by Our Hero)*(1 - MD lg avg sv%) - MD goals allowed by Our Hero = MGSAA (total HD shots faced by Our Hero)*(1 - HD lg avg sv%) - HD goals allowed by Our Hero= HGSAA ((LGSAA+MGSAA+HGSAA)/goalie TOI)/60 = adjGSAA/60 9

10 adjGSAA/60 Cat Voodoo 10

11 adjGSAA/60 61% Above Average 11

12 adjGSAA/60 (3 yr) 71% Above Average 12

13 adjGSAA/60 54% Above Average 13

14 adjGSAA/60 G.O.A.T. = 14

15 Goalie Stats Are Not Created Equally
62.7% Inconsistency = Bad Consistently Above Avg = Rare Elite = 60%+ Above Avg.

16 56.4% Above avg start % 26.4% “Bad” Start %

17 Multivariate Regression
Sample Weight n-1 = 6 n-2 = 3 Regress Shots Adjust For Age Coefficient n-1 = .596 Coefficient n-2 = .257 Coefficient n-3 = -.143 24% to the mean 143 LDS 90 MDS 93 HDS n shots n-2, n R2 = .395 P value n-1 = .049 P value n-2=.372 Marcel The Monkey – “Simple” Predictive Model

18

19 72% Voodoo Chart – Jonathan Quick(LAK) 2012-15 3 yr – 5v5 Bottom 4th
.032 3 yr adjGSAA/60 Bottom 4th Below Avg Above Avg Elite .021 Projected adjGSAA/60 51% 3 yr Above Avg Start % Rank 72% 25% 3 yr Bad Start % Rank % of team TOI Trend Line: 19

20 Voodoo Chart – Jonathan Quick(LAK)
3 yr – 5v5 Voodoo Chart – Jonathan Quick(LAK) .032 3 yr adjGSAA/60 Bottom 4th Below Avg Above Avg Elite .021 Projected adjGSAA/60 51% 3 yr Above Avg Start % Rank 25% 3 yr Bad Start % Rank Trend Line: 20

21 Voodoo Chart – Jonathan Quick(LAK)
3 yr – 5v5 Voodoo Chart – Jonathan Quick(LAK) .032 3 yr adjGSAA/60 Bottom 4th Below Avg Above Avg Elite .021 Projected adjGSAA/60 51% 3 yr Above Avg Start % Rank 25% 3 yr Bad Start % Rank Trend Line: 21

22 Thanks: War-On-Ice.com Hockey-Graphs.com @garik16 Rob Vollman Dominic Galamini

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