1. California Energy Demand (CED) IEPR Forecast:
April 22, 2014
Chris Kavalec
Demand Analysis Office
Electricity Supply Analysis Division

2. Forecast Process
In IEPR year (2013, 2015, etc.), a preliminary forecast is released in the spring
Preliminary version is compared with the latest utility forecasts and differences reconciled
Revised/final forecast released in fall, adopted in the winter
Short-term peak forecast at end of every year
Starting 2014, off-year forecast update
Input from DAWG, close coordination with CPUC and ISO

3. Purpose/Uses of Forecast
CPUC Long-Term Procurement Process (LTPP)
California ISO Transmission Planning Process (TPP)
CPUC/California ISO Resource Adequacy
CPUC energy efficiency potential studies
Renewables planning
Other
Mention outputs from forecast: electricity consumption, electricity sales, peak demand, natural gas consumption etc. at planning area/climate zone level
Go over uses of forecast, describing each briefly. Other would include AB32 baseline, CEC infrastructure planning, etc.

4. Forecast Planning Areas (electricity)
PG&E
Southern California Edison
SDG&E
SMUD
LADWP
Burbank/Glendale
Imperial Irrigation District
Pasadena

5. Forecast Planning Areas (end-user natural gas)
PG&E
Southern California Gas
SDG&E
Other

6. Forecast Models Residential (end use) Commercial (end use)
Industrial (combination end use-econometric)
Agricultural (disaggregate econometric model)
Transportation, communications, and utilities; street lighting (disaggregate trend analysis)
Summary and Peak models
Predictive models for self-generation

7. Econometric Models
Separate models for all sectors, electricity and gas
Peak model
Used to inform, to make adjustments, and as point of comparison
Will be used in the off-year forecast update

8. Three Scenarios
High Demand: higher economic and demographic growth, lower efficiency program impacts, lower rates, higher climate change impacts
Low Demand: lower economic and demographic growth, higher efficiency program impacts, higher rates, no climate change impacts
Mid Demand: in between high and low

9. Key Inputs Population Average household size Employment
Personal income
Manufacturing output
Commercial floor space (derived from economic/demographic data)
Rates

10. CED Forecasts Incorporate Policy Initiatives
Building codes and appliance standards
IOU and POU efficiency program impacts
Distributed generation incentive programs
Demand response programs
ZEV mandate
Other electrification
Forecast used as an assessment of progress toward goals rather than assuming goals met
Mention briefly how initiatives incorporated in forecast.
Last bullet point: e.g. CPUC PV goals happen to be met, but we don’t build the goals into the forecast results.

11. CED Forecast Methods and Inputs Evolve Over Time Changes/Improvements vs. CED 2011
Recent efficiency programs and standards
High-speed rail and other electrification
Climate zone results
Additional demand response programs
Model upgrades/improvements
Further incorporation of climate change
Additional achievable efficiency savings

12. AAEE Savings and Managed Forecast
“Baseline” forecasts includes “committed” efficiency only
Adjusted forecasts incorporates AAEE scenarios for IOUs based on CPUC Potential Study
Combination of baseline and AAEE scenarios chosen as managed forecast(s) for planning purposes

13. Baseline and Managed Forecasts Mid Baseline and Mid AAEE, Combined IOU Energy

14. Baseline and Managed Forecasts Mid Baseline and Mid AAEE, Combined IOU Peak

15. 2015 IEPR and Beyond New planning area/disaggregation scheme
Hybridized end-use models
Standardized weather normalization
Low-resolution exploratory modeling
Consultation with academic expert panel

16. Proposal for New Electricity Planning Areas
PG&E TAC
SCE TAC
SDG&E TAC
Turlock Irrigation and SMUD Control Areas
LADWP
Burbank/Glendale
Imperial Irrigation District
Question is what disaggregation within these.