1. Results and lessons of the 10 years experiment of large earthquake prediction made in advance with a lead time months using Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP)
P. Shebalin
Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow,

2. Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP)
Step 1. “Earthquake chains” detect area of long-range activation of seismicity
Chain is a sequence of earthquakes that follow each other closely in time and space, quickly extending over large distances
Pattern Chain depicts the rise of earthquakes correlation range.
The chain is formed by union of all pairs of “neighbors” with
Drij < r0×10c*min(Mi,Mj)
Dtij < t0

3. Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP)

4. Successful prediction of the Tokach-oki earthquake, 2003

5. California

6. California

7. Italy, 2004 and 2008

8. Central Apennines, Alps, Northern Dinarides and Po Valley Test using CSEM catalog

9. Kurile islands,

10. Aleutians, 2007

11. North Pacific without Honshu, M>=7.2
California Gorda Plate Alaska Aleutians Kamchatka Kurils

12. Japan, March 2011

13. Honshu-Hokkaido-Central Kurile islands region, M>=7.2

14. Summary of the experiment of prospective prediction using RTP algorithm, June 2003 – June 2012
Expected rate
of targets in
alarms k
Predicted n
Number of
Expected
rate of
targets in
regions K
Occurred N
t=k/K
t+h
Probability
gain
n/k/(N/K)
California
0.68 3 13
3.73 4
0.18
0.41
4.2
Honshu to Kurils
0.67 5
4.35
0.15
6.5
Italy+
2.66
0.4
5.9
E.Mediterra-nean
0.9
N. Pacific
(without Honshu)
0.11 8 12
0.58 9
0.19
0.30
4.7
total
1.84 26
12.1 15
0.28
5.8

15. All events M>=3.5 and chains