1. WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2002 Focus on European Union
François Cattier
International Energy Agency
Il Mercato Europeo Del Gas Naturale
26 September 2002

2. Outline WEO 2002 will be officially launched mid-October in Rome
EU projections
Energy market trends
Implications for CO2 emissions
Results of the Alternative Scenario
Key messages & conclusions

3. Share of EU in World Primary Energy Demand
2000
2030
9,200 Mtoe
15,300 Mtoe
The EU’s share of world energy demand falls as demand
grows faster in developing countries

4. EU Primary Energy Mix 2000 2030 1,456 Mtoe 1,811 Mtoe
Gas & renewables increase their shares in the EU energy mix,
at the expense of nuclear power, coal and oil

5. EU Total Final Energy Consumption
Transport remains the fastest-growing end-use sector

6. EU Electricity Generation
Gas captures most of the increase in power-generation fuel
needs, but the role of renewables increases rapidly

7. EU Oil Balance Oil imports rise as demand continues to grow &
North Sea production starts to decline

8. European Union Gas Demand

9. EU Net Imports of Gas by Origin
2000
2030
187 bcm
632 bcm
The Middle East & to a lesser extent Latin America
become major new suppliers of gas to the EU

10. EU Gas-Supply Costs: North
Indicative Costs for New Sources of Gas Supply Delivered to the German Border, 2010 ($/Mbtu)
Russian gas from Nadym Pur Taz is the cheapest
near-term option for supply to Northern EU countries..

11. EU Gas-Supply Costs: South
Indicative Costs for New Sources of Gas Supply Delivered to the Mediterranean, 2010 ($/Mbtu)
While North African gas is the cheapest near-term
option for supply to Mediterranean EU countries

12. Net Gas-Trade Flows, 2030
Bcm
The Middle East overtakes the transition economies as the
world’s biggest gas-exporting region

13. EU CO2 Emissions
Emissions fall more than energy use, because of the
added impact of fuel switching to less carbon-intensive fuels
Emissions in the Alternative Scenario stabilise towards
the end of the projection period

14. Conclusions EU Energy use will continue to grow
Renewables will penetrate energy mix rapidly, but fossil fuels will still dominate
Oil and gas imports will surge
CO2 emissions are set to grow even faster than energy use – without new policies
New policies now being considering would save energy & stabilise emissions, but only towards the end of the Outlook period

15. Implications for EU Energy Security
To ensure energy security, governments will need to:
take a more proactive role in dealing with energy-security risks
pay more attention to maintaining the security of international sea-lanes and pipelines
promote diversification of the mix of fuels & their geographic sources
Co-operate with supplier countries to facilitate investment

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