1. What Happened? • Winner's strategy • Optimal individual strategy
• Optimal group strategy
• Resource behavior
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

2. Summary of Company Performance
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year
Ships
Ships
Ships
Ships
Ships
Ships
Ships
Grand
Ships
Ships
Company
Assets
Assets
Assets
Assets
Assets
Assets
Assets
Total
Assets
Assets
5/1000
7/1500
11/1110
14/3010
22/100
22/-400
22/-1100
4400 1
5/1000
10/2390
13/4670
18/820
18/-660
18/-1170
3330
10/790 2
5/1000
10/790
17/100
17/4260
17/3230
17/3220
17/3100
7350 3
5/1000
8/800
10/1060
17/1940
24/-2650
24/-5980
24/-7470
-1470 4
5/1000
12/90
24/-1730
32/4830
44/-4240
44/-10830
44/-14200
-3200 5 6
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

3. Summary of Game BehaviorC C C F F F
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

4. Typical Game Behavior Fish Catch Ships 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 YEAR
YEAR
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

5. Typical Game Behavior – Fleet
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

6. Typical Game Behavior – Catch
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

7. Typical Game Behavior – Fish Population
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

8. Aggressive Strategies
“Purchase many boats until average fish productivity starts to decline. When fish productivity goes down, fish other areas.”
“Increase fleet size as long as yields are stable.”
“We will continue to add at least 1 ship per year. We will fish in both the deep sea and coast depending on fish supplies…”
“We have acted on an impulse that things will be good for a few more years. Probably will keep our fleet at or around this size [16 boats].”
Comments from students at the University of New Hampshire.
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

9. Conservative Strategies
“We want to keep our fleet at this constant level and disperse it so as not to deplete fish resources in the deep sea and coast. “
“Buy conservatively, out of necessity, and keep our bank balance positive.“
“Obtain a stable fleet size [and] move fleet around to follow fish population densities. Sell off some of fleet as time goes on.”
Comments from students at the University of New Hampshire.
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

10. Does fish depletion happen in real life?
• Pacific Sardine
• Peruvian Anchovy
• North Sea Herring
• Atlantic Swordfish
• Atlantic Cod
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

11. Pacific Sardine Catch
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

12. Peruvian Herring, Anchovy and Sardine Catch
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

13. North Sea Herring Catch
Source: Nichols, John. “Saving North Sea Herring.” Fishing News February 1999.
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

14. Atlantic Swordfish Catch
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

15. Atlantic Cod Catch
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

16. Principal Global Oceanic Fisheries
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

17. Total World Fish Catch
Source: Fisheries of the United States, US Dept. of Commerce, 2000.
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

18. How The World’s Fish Are Caught
Currently there are some 13 million fishers in the world. Twelve million use simple traditional technologies to land about half the world’s fish catch. The remaining one million fishers crew 37,000 industrial fishing vessels and account for the other half of the fish caught. These fishers deploy highly sophisticated contrivances ranging from sonar and spotting planes to fishing nets large enough to swallow twelve 747 jumbo jets.
Source: “World Fisheries in Crisis.” Environmental News Network July 10, 1998.
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

19. The World’s Fisheries – Anarchy
“The emerging anarchy in the oceans” is how one United Nations official describes the situation on the high seas. With so many vessels scouring increasingly fished-out waters, squabbles are inevitable. Russians attack Japanese vessels in the Northwest Pacific. Scottish fishers attack a Russian trawler. A Falkland Islands patrol chases a Taiwanese squid boat more than 4,000 miles. Norwegian patrols cut the nets of three Icelandic ships in the Arctic, and shots are exchanged. Philippine patrols arrest Chinese fishers near the hotly contested Spratly Islands in the south China Sea. The list of confrontations is ever-expanding.
Source: “World Fisheries in Crisis.” Environmental News Network July 10, 1998.
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

20. Global Fisheries Depletion
Thousands of Tons
Potential
1,350
100
500
300
2,250
600
350 38
210 40
9-11,000
16,738
Region
Northwest Atlantic
Northeast Atlantic
Southeast Atlantic
Northwest Pacific
Northeast Pacific
Southeast Pacific
Total
Species
Cod
Haddock
Capelin
Herring
Pilchard
Salmon
Halibut
Perch
King Crab
Anchoveta
1994 Catch 48 7 2
243
1,643
210
367 32 26 5
11,897
14,480
Loss
1,302 93
498 57
607
390
-17 6
184 35
- 897
2,258
Source: The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, 1999.
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

21. International Fisheries Management
The relative failure of international management to
establish sustainable fisheries in many areas, despite
the high quality of the research base sometimes
provided, is clearly demonstrated by the dwindling
resources, excessive catching capacity, uncontrolled
transfers of fishing effort between resources and
oceans, and depletion of many highly valuable
resources...The fact that uncontrolled development of
fishing effort leads to disaster has now been widely
acknowledged in the scientific literature, and by
high level fisheries management and development
authorities.
Source: Roodard. Review of the State of World Fishery Resources. Agriculture of the
United Nations. Rome 1990.
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

22. Where else does depletion occur?
• Groundwater
• Forests
• Soil
• Game Animals
• Ozone
• Other Renewable Resources
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

23. The Fisheries System • Principal interactions Fish/Regeneration
Fish/Catch
Catch/Investment/Ships
• Other influences
Auction
Environment
Price
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

24. The Fisheries System: Fish
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

25. The Fisheries System: Catch
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

26. The Fisheries System: Investment
+,-
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

27. The Fisheries System Structure
+,-
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

28. What else affects the fisheries system?
• Foreign competition
• Technology
• Regulation
• Pollution
• Weather (El Nino)
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

29. Impact of Technology on Ship Effectiveness
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

30. Is there anything wrong with depletion?
• Present value of the fishery
• Local vs. global strategies
• Impacts on linked ecosystems
• Equity of resource distribution
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

31. Dietary Importance of Fish
In all, marine and inland fisheries provide nearly 30 percent of Asia’s animal protein, in Africa the proportion is 21 percent, in Latin America 8 percent.
Source: Fisheries at the Limit
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

32. What can be done? • Partition the seas • Establish quotas • Farm fish
• Move down food chain
• Change consumption preferences
• Reduce destruction and pollution of fisheries
• Limit ship fleets, technology
• Develop better methods for stock assessment
• Change social values and economic incentives
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

33. Alternative Catch Policies- - - -
Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows