1. Security Challenges of the Baltic Small States
Assoc. Prof. Margarita Šešelgytė
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3. What is being protected?
From what we
are protecting?
How we are protecting?
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4. Small states’ security
External factors influencing security of the small state (Olav F. Knudsen)
Strategic significance of the small state’s geographical location (viewed by leading powers)
Degree of tension between leading powers
The power of the closest big country
Historical experience with the closest big power
Policy of the big power towards the small state
Existence of the multilateral security frameworks
Internal factors
Social cohesion
Smart security and foreign policy strategies
Economic stability
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5. Particularities of the Baltic states’ security
Main task – to keep Russians out and Americans in
Vulnerabilities of the Baltic states:
Institutional weaknesses, such as fragmentation and commercialization
Poorly integrated minorities
Energy dependency on Russia (sources and infrastructure)
Trade dependency of certain sectors
Lack of resilience of the society for the soft influence (informational attacks, culture penetration)
Ties of political and business elite with Russia
Changing security situation in the region
Failing democratic standards in Russia since 2007
War in Georgia and Ukraine
Militarization of the region (especially Kaliningrad district)
Ambiguous intentions of Russian elite
Strong support of society to the imperialistic goal of Russian regime
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6. Risk Analysis
An asset – what we are trying to protect (people, territory, sovereignty)
A vulnerability – a weakness or a gap in our protection efforts
A threat – anything that can exploit a vulnerability, intentionally or accidentally and obtain, damage, or destroy an asset
A risk – the potential for loss, damage or destruction of an asset as a result of a threat exploiting a vulnerability, intersection of assets, threats and vulnerabilities
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7. Source: http://www. jiscinfonet. ac
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8. A Task
Referring to the indicated articles to draw a risk map for one of the Baltic states
To find the best strategy how to lower the probability and the impact of the most urgent risks (no more than 5)
Present the findings in 5-7 min presentation
Discuss the findings in the larger group
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9. Timetable 10.00 – 10.15 Introduction: Security of the Baltic states
10.15 – Defining the task
10.20 – Group work (3 groups)
11.00 – Break
11.15 – Presentation of findings (no more than 7 min) and discussions
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