1. INTERTANKO is the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners INTERTANKO has been the voice of independent tanker owners since 1970, ensuring that the oil that keeps the world turning is shipped safely, responsibly and competitively. Membership is open to independent tanker owners and operators of oil and chemical tankers, i.e. non-oil companies and non-state controlled tanker owners, who fulfil the Association's membership criteria.  Independent owners operate some 80% of the world's tanker fleet and the vast majority are INTERTANKO members. The organisation has 270 members, whose combined fleet comprises more than 2,700 tankers totalling 225 million dwt, which is 70% of the world's independent tanker fleet. INTERTANKO's associate membership stands at some 300 companies with an interest in shipping of oil and chemicals. INTERTANKO is a forum where the industry meets, policies are discussed and statements are created. It is a source of first-hand information, opinions and guidance. INTERTANKO has a vision of a professional, efficient and respected industry, that is dedicated to achieving Safe transport, cleaner seas  and free competition.
INTERTANKO industry spokesperson
The strong support that INTERTANKO enjoys allows it to speak authoritatively and proactively on behalf of tanker operators at international, regional, national and local level. It is also able to maintain a 26-strong secretariat and a network of 14 committees and four regional panels that coordinate an extensive work programme that comprises more than 50 agenda items. Governments and shipping regulators have taken a closer interest in tanker shipping in recent years. INTERTANKO has responded by establishing, strengthening and maintaining relationships with legislators on all levels, working with them to ensure a fair and equitable distribution of the responsibilities and liabilities involved in carrying oil and chemicals by sea. Underlining its commitment to representing its members where key decisions are made, INTERTANKO opened offices in Singapore and Washington DC in 1999, in addition to its principal offices in Oslo and London. Within the shipping industry itself, INTERTANKO participates in discussions within the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) where we have NGO status and the International Oil Spill Compensation Fund.  In addition, it has consultative status at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Oil and its derivatives will remain the world’s most critical commodity in the foreseeable future and tankers will be needed to distribute it to where it is needed.  As long as tankers are vital to this distribution INTERTANKO will provide leadership in the development and implementation of industry standards and practices, and international regulations  for maritime safety and environmental protection.
Erik Ranheim has been with INTERTANKO for 25 years and has been involved in both the technical and commercial aspects of tankers shipping. He is an economist and has also sailed as an officer in the merchant navy. He has been involved in both technical and commercial issues and has written several INTERTANKO publication on specific topic related to the tanker market and the tanker industry.
Russian oil export and tankers by Manager Research and Projects Russian shipping St. Petersburg 17 June 2008

2. Enormous energy infrastructure ports, trains, rivers, pipelines
Russian oil
World largest exporter
World strongest expansion
Europe’s largest supplier
West, South, East, North
Large tanker companies
Enormous energy infrastructure ports, trains, rivers, pipelines

3. World largest oil exporters – 30
World largest oil exporters – 30.3 mbd 35% of consumption - 58% of export
Pemex
PdVSA
KOTC
Statoil
NIOC/NITC
Saudi Aramco/VELA
Gasprom/Sovcomflot
mbd
Independent major oil companies losing control of resources?

4. World largest net oil exporters
mbd

5. Increases in world oil demand supplied by FSU, Saudi Arabia and others
mbd
Since 2000, FSU has contributed with supply 55% of the oil demand increase, Saudi Arabia 18% and others 27%
Source: IEA

6. FSU oil consumption and production
mbd
Russia oil reserves 7th in the world R/P ration 22 years (world 42)
Source: BP Review/IEA

7. FSU total net petroleum export 1994 - 2008
mbd
Source: IEA

8. FSU petroleum export by export outlet
mbd
Source: IEA

9. Russian Crude oil export by outlet
4.2 mbd
1.26 mbd
0.86 mbd
1.26 mbd
Source: OECD

10. Oil consumption per capita
Liters per year

11. Sources of European crude oil - mbd
Source: OECD

12. Sources of European crude oil - mbd
Source: OECD

13. Russian oil production stagnating?
May Russian oil production of 9.95 mbd (year-on-year decline for the 5th straight month
IEA Russian production flat in 2008 at 10.1 mbd
Higher and potentially year-round production from Sakhalin 2 counteracts (decline expected from Sakhalin 1)
Other 2008 increments from Vankor* and Salym W Siberia (0.12 mbd)
Rosneft expects:
2.02 to 2.23 mbd in 2008
2.6 mbd in 2010
3.2 mbd in 2015, and
3.4 mbd by 2020
Stagnation, geological or institutional?
(*The Vankor oil will have to make the distance of 5,800 km (including 3,300 km – along the newly constructed pipelines) to come to the border with China near Skovorodino where the first stage of ESPO ends )

14. FSU petroleum Black Sea export 07
324 tankers 13.4m ts
154 tankers 6.2m ts
Yuzhny 250 tankers 9.7 m ts
957 tankers 75.8m ts
Tuapse 451 tankers 12.7 m ts
153 tankers 2.8 m ts
214 tankers 9.1 m ts
mbd
Tanker transits >200M 2,140 per year
95% double hulls
31% Suezmaxes
96% take pilot
56,000 ships/10,000 tankers (incl. 800 LPG), 150 m ts liquid cargoes

15. Turkish Straits – transit profiles – 4Q06/07
Number ships
A slight decrease in overall traffic, more so by “hazardous vessels” and a significant drop in Gas Carriers, but….., (Note; all LNG carriers are >200m)

16. Turkish Straits – Transit Profiles 4Q07
Number
Source: Chevron

17. 2007 Black Sea crude outlets
Total m ts/year
Approx m ts/year Crude Oil “remain” in Black Sea as import to Black Sea Countries

18. 2007 Black Sea crude exporters

19. Russia opening new frontier
The first tanker was loaded September Since then, on average every 3-4r days tankers have been departing with the Sakhalin-1 crude oil, Sokol, delivering the oil to global markets. Each tanker carries up to 720,000 barrels (100,000 tons) of crude..
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia, September 27, 2007
To ensure safe export of crude in the severe winter conditions of the Tatar Strait, a dedicated fleet of double hull Aframax class tankers is made of cold weather steel to protect against fractures.

20. Pipeline Eastwards threat to tanker shipping Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean Pipeline (ESPO):
Taishet - Skovorodino - Kozmino Bay
2 Stg: 1,300 miles 1.6 mbd
1 Stg: 1,200 miles 0.6 mbd Dec 2009? $12.5 bn/fill 1.5 m bbls
1 Stg: 1,200 miles 0.6 mbd Dec 2009? $12.5 bn/fill 1.5 m bbls
43-mile, 0.3 mbd spur from Skovorodino to the Chinese border
1 mbd PG - Japan 20 VLCC, Nakhodka - Japan 6 VLCCs

21. Seaborne Crude Oil Trade Flows 2006

22. Exporting from difficult areas
Baltic - narrow waters, ice
Black Sea - narrow waters, weather - politics
North - weather and ice
East – long pipelines – short sea routes
Druzba - political
Enormous infrastructure ports, trains, rivers, pipelines – tankers often a small part

23. Market effect (pipeline effect) of one mbd transported various trades

24. Russian tanker owners
Average 6.6 years
Sovcomflot and Novoship among 15 largest tanker owners in the world
Average 6.8 years
Average 12.5 years
World average age tankers years
Average 25.8 years
+ some 150 other tanker owners with mainly small tankers
Average 27 years
Total average age Russian tankers 22.5 years
m dwt

25. Conclusion Russia the energy superpower economic political
Energy and politics goes hand in hand oil east and/ or westwards?
New frontiers may be expensive and slow to open
Strong Russian tanker companies
Future?
I cannot forecast you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key? The key is Russian national interests.
Sir Winston Churchill, 1939