1. Truth & Lies Activity
What things can we look for in a person to detect if they are telling a lie?

2. For the ten stories we hear in class…
Number a piece of paper from 1 – 10
For each story, write if you think if the person was being truthful or lying
Next to your answer, write your percent confident – from 0% to 100%
Once all ten stories have been told, compute your average confidence score by adding all your confidence percents and dividing by 10 (or nine for volunteers)

3. Once you have the correct answers…
Compute your actual percentage correct by multiplying each correct response by 10% (or 11% for volunteers)
Be ready to share your confidence and actual percent correct with the class

4. Examples of Overconfidence
“There is no reason for anyone to have a computer in their home.”
Ken Olsen, president of Digital Equipment Company, 1977
Roughly 78% of all households now own a computer

5. Examples of Overconfidence
“Reagan doesn’t have the presidential look.”
United Artists executive when asked whether Ronald Reagan should be offered the starring role in the movie The Best Man, 1964
After a successful acting career, Reagan went on to serve two terms as the 40th president of the United States

6. Examples of Overconfidence
“Man will never reach the Moon, regardless of all future scientific advances.”
Lee DeForest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1957
Neil Armstrong and Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin first set foot on the moon July 21st, 1969

7. Overconfidence 1) List the results for yourself and for the class
2) Define the term overconfidence
3) Give a real-world example of the overconfidence