1. Kate Brown CIFOR,Bogor, March 2009
PEN Global Analysis Linking PEN Analysis to contemporary debates in environmental change and development
Kate Brown
CIFOR,Bogor, March 2009

2. 1. Forests and Climate Change Mitigation
If stopping deforestation were easy wouldn’t we have done it already?

3. What can PEN data say about REDD?
Who and where are most likely to be impacted by REDD? most forest dependent communities
What kinds of restrictions will be most damaging to the poor and to forest-dependent people? – how can REDD avoid biased against the poor?
Where/ in what contexts or circumstances might REDD be effective and why? Tenure systems
PEN can potentially inform policy and project design by quantifying forest dependency and links to poverty

4. 2. Forests and Climate Change Adaptation
Who, where is most vulnerable to climate change?
Informing understanding through empirical evidence on dependency and adaptive capacity
First global analysis of this kind related to forest communities – separating out components of vulnerability
Informing on-going scientific debates and policy formulation on cc adaptation

5. Potential impact (PI) – Adaptive capacity (AC)
VULNERABILITY (V) =
Potential impact (PI) – Adaptive capacity (AC)
PI = Exposure (E) + Sensitivity or dependence (D)
Exposure: The nature and degree to which a system experiences environmental or socio-political or other stress – from other sources cc impacts studies
Dependence: The extent to which a human or natural system can absorb the impacts – forest dependence from PEN data
Adaptive capacity: The preconditions necessary to enable adaptation to take place – indicators from PEN data

6. Components of Adaptive Capacity
AC will depend on:
Recognition of the need to adapt
Belief that adaptation is possible and desirable
Willingness to undertake adaptation
Availability of resources necessary for implementation of adaptation measures
Ability to deploy resources in an appropriate way
External constraints, barriers and enablers to implementation
From PEN data:
Diversity of income sources
Coping strategies
Social capital and trust
Institutions and property rights
Infrastructure
established literature says that AC will depend on…
Set of indicators weighted by experts to produce the index
Many analyses of V assume that material wealth is the main determinant of AC and therefore social V – but we cannot assume the poorest are always the most V to change.

7. 3. Forests as a source of Resilience for the poor
Resilience is the ability to absorb disturbance to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks
How do forests support poor people in poor countries deal with different kinds of disturbance?
Different kinds of disturbance
Slow versus fast drought versus storm
Shocks experienced by all or some within a community fuel / food price shocks versus family illness

8. What might this add to existing literature?
Goes beyond arguments about safety nets
Give specific examples
Disaggregate poor in different contexts
Different ecological endowments
Forests are important as seasonal buffers, but only in certain circumstances and for certain people may they provide emergency relief?
Distinguish between coping mechanisms and adaption
Adaptation is a process or activity undertaken in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of environmental stresses or take advantages of new opportunities – in response or in anticipation – adds to resilience
Coping mechanisms help to deal with a specific shock and may undermine ability to cope with further shocks and undermine resileince
Does this overturn a conventional wisdom or accepted orthodoxy?