1. Aviation and the Kyoto Protocol
ICAO
Colloquium on Environmental Aspects of Aviation
April 2001, Montreal, Canada
Christine Zumkeller
UNFCCC secretariat
April 2001

2. Content 1. The science of climate change
2. Introduction to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
3. Aviation within the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
4. Open issues under the Kyoto Protocol
April 2001

3. Global temperatures
IPCC
Source: IPCC
April 2001

4. Pattern of changing temperatures
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
The pattern of changing temperatures, between the present day and the turn of the century, across the surface of the earth as observed
April 2001

5. Concerns global temperatures have risen by 0.6 °C
since industrialization
global temperatures will rise by °C (estimated)
by land areas heat more rapidly
sea level up by cm (estimated)
by will rise for further 1000 years
more energy in the system
 more severe weather events, storms, etc.
April 2001

6. Expected Impacts Ecosystems may change dramatically
( flooding and damage to low lying areas )
impacting on human & animal health, and welfare
Impacts on developing countries
expected to be particularly severe
April 2001

7. Radiative forcing
Source: IPCC
April 2001

8. IPCC report on aviation
Emissions of CO2 from aviation:
0.14 Gt C/year % of global anthropogenic CO2
and growing (to 3 % in 2050)
Radiative forcing of aviation
CO2, ozone, methane, water vapor, contrails, aerosols, not cirrus clouds
- 1992: 3.5% of all anthropogenic forcing in 1992
- 2050: 2.6 to 11 times the 1992 value
Source: IPCC report on aviation and the global atmosphere
April 2001

9. Content 1. The science of climate change
2. Introduction to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
3. Aviation within the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
4. Open issues under the Kyoto Protocol
April 2001

10. Time Table
1992
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted (Rio)
1994
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) entered into force
1995
First Conference of the Parties (COP1, Berlin)
1997
Third Conference of the Parties (COP3, Kyoto) Kyoto Protocol adopted
2000
Sixth Conference of the Parties (COP6, The Hague)
The Kyoto Protocol enters into force when
55 Parties have ratified and
they account for at least 55% of Annex I emissions 1990
Developing country participation in emission limitation will be discussed at COP4 in Buenos Aires November 1998.
The US, which account for ~25% of the emissions, have announced to forward the protocol to the Senate only if a movement towards developing country participation in emissions limitations is clear.
This may prevent the protocol to enter into force before the turn of the century.
2001
Sixth Conference of the Parties resumed (COP6 part II, Bonn)
~2002 ?
Kyoto Protocol may enter into force
April 2001

11. Climate Change Convention
Objective:
“Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”
April 2001

12. Climate Change Convention
Principles:
“… on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.”
“The Parties should take precautionary measures ... Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures…”
April 2001

13. Kyoto Protocol
Developed countries to decrease emissions compared to All developed countries: -5% USA: -7% EU: -8% Japan: -6% Russian Federation: 0%
Includes CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
Afforestation, reforestation, deforestation and other land-use activities may count
Mechanisms (joint implementation, emissions trading, clean development mechanism)
April 2001

14. Content 1. The science of climate change
2. Introduction to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
3. Aviation within the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
4. Open issues under the Kyoto Protocol
April 2001

15. International aviation emissions UNFCCC
Decision 9/2 (INC, 1994):
“In providing information on emissions from international aviation and marine bunker fuels, Parties should include such data, in a separate category, in their inventories of emissions on the basis of fuel sold and should, as far as possible, not include them in total national emissions”
Decision 4/CP.1 (1995)
“… address the issue of the allocation and control of emissions from international bunker fuels, and report on this work to the Conference of the Parties at its second session”
April 2001

16. International aviation emissions Kyoto Protocol
Decision 2/CP.3: “...emissions based upon fuel sold to ships or aircraft engaged in international transport should not be included in national totals, but reported separately…”
 International aviation emissions are
not part of the quantitative target
“…urges the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice to further elaborate on the inclusion of these emissions in the overall greenhouse gas inventories of Parties...”
April 2001

17. International aviation emissions Kyoto Protocol
Article 2.2 of the Kyoto Protocol:
“Annex I Parties shall pursue limitation or reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases from aviation and marine bunker fuels, working through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO), respectively.“
April 2001

18. Emissions Developed countries Aviation Developing countries domestic
international
Developed countries
Aviation
Developing countries
April 2001

19. International aviation emissions Since Kyoto
Invited ICAO and IMO to inform of their work plans relating to emissions based on fuel sold to ships or aircraft engaged in international transport and to provide regular progress reports
Requested to continue to develop the cooperation with ICAO and IMO and encouraged the participation of representatives of the UNFCCC process in relevant meetings of ICAO and IMO
Encouraged ICAO and IMO to complete their work on this matter as soon as possible
Noted the importance of coordination by Parties at the national level
April 2001

20. Content 1. The science of climate change
2. Introduction to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
3. Aviation within the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
4. Open issues under the Kyoto Protocol
April 2001

21. The Kyoto Protocol enters into force when
55 Parties have ratified and
they account for at least 55% of Annex I emissions 1990
Developing country participation in emission limitation will be discussed at COP4 in Buenos Aires November 1998.
The US, which account for ~25% of the emissions, have announced to forward the protocol to the Senate only if a movement towards developing country participation in emissions limitations is clear.
This may prevent the protocol to enter into force before the turn of the century.

22. Issues at COP6 (November 2000)
Support for developing countries
Mechanisms (joint implementation, emissions trading, clean development mechanism)
The use of land-use, land-use change and forestry to meet targets
Rules related to non-compliance with the target
April 2001

23. Kyoto Protocol Mechanisms:
Joint Implementation of projects between developed countries
Emissions trading between developed countries
Clean development mechanism - Joint projects in developing countries for SD ! - Financed by developed countries, which can use emissions reductions to meet their commitments - Possibly unilateral
April 2001

24. Emissions trading Party A Party B Parties receive assigned amount
Transaction
Parties receive assigned amount
Parties are responsible for compliance
April 2001

25. Emissions trading One option
Party A
Party B
Transaction
Entity F
Entity C
Entity E
Entity B
Entity D
Entity A
Transactions ?
April 2001

26. Mechanisms To what extent can the mechanisms be used to reach targets?
What use can be made of units acquired through one of the mechanisms?
Should there be a fee on all mechanisms to fund adaptation? e
April 2001

27. Mechanisms
How could one prevent that more units of assigned amount were transferred than were available for transfer (“overselling”) ?
Which projects can be implemented in developing countries (CDM)? es
- Nuclear? Forestry?
April 2001

28. Land-use and forestry
What is a “forest”, “deforestation”, “afforestation”?
Which and how much of those activities may be used?
April 2001

29. Non-compliance
What if the target is not reached?
April 2001

30. Example Projection without measures: + 20% Trading
Joint implementation
Projects in developing countries (CDM)
Forests and land-use
Emissions
Other domestic efforts
Target: -8%
2010
1990
April 2001

31. Next steps
Official outcome of COP 6: - Meeting suspended - Forward texts to next session - Explore possibilities to resume COP6 in the first half of 2001
COP6 will resume 16 to 27 July 2001, Bonn, Germany
April 2001

32. More information www.unfccc.int Christine Zumkeller
April 2001