1. Output from RUPES-China Projects
Zhuangfang Yi
With support from Dr.Xu Jianchu, Dr. Su Yufang, Dr. Li Yunju, Dr. Andreas Wilkes
(ICRAF-China & East Asia Node)

2. Project sites Watershed Carbon and biodiversity of grassland
Carbon, watershed and biodiversity

3. Conceptual framework for PES mechanism
Local households and communities ……
Providers
Aesthetic beauty
Carbon sequestration
Biodiversity
Clean water
Food production
Ecosystem services
governments
Companies
Buyers

4. PES mechanism on grassland of Tibetan Plateau
Policy Influenced:
The development of reward for ecosystem services schemes for grass land by the China’s State Council in , China .

5. PES mechanism on watershed of Songhuaba
Compensation standard of PES scheme has been set;
Government document has been composed and submitted to related government office;
Initiative PES scheme has been started;

6. PES mechanism in Xishuangbanna

7. Rubber Expansion 87,226 ha 153,613 ha 438,015 (23%)
Rubber expension double during 10years from 1992 to 2002, and 2.5 times during the next 8years. And 35 % of Xishuangbanna is lower than 850 m elevation, which is the suitable land for rubber growing, nowadays rubber monocuture already make up nearly 20% of Xishuangbanna, nearly 10% of these land are located in nature reserve, but other 5% are collective forests, which might still be the targets for rubber/ other cash crops plantation in near future. That mean the remaining rainforest still be threaten by different kind of cash crops.
   87,226 ha     ,613 ha ,015 (23%)
Data from: World Agroforest center, China Program and KIB
Data from: Agro-forest center China

8. The trend of Rubber plantations
1400m*****
Rubber plantations have already been expanded to 1600m

9. Cycle of land use change between natural forest and rubber plantation
Deforestation
Natural forest
Rubber plantation
Replanting
Forest restoration
1400m*****
Data from: World Agroforest center, China Program and KIB
Data from: Agro-forest center China

10. Deforestation
Natural forest
Rubber plantation
Replanting
Forest restoration
Ecocompensation
Rubber expension double during 10years from 1992 to 2002, and 2.5 times during the next 8years. And 35 % of Xishuangbanna is lower than 850 m elevation, which is the suitable land for rubber growing, nowadays rubber monocuture already make up nearly 20% of Xishuangbanna, nearly 10% of these land are located in nature reserve, but other 5% are collective forests, which might still be the targets for rubber/ other cash crops plantation in near future. That mean the remaining rainforest still be threaten by different kind of cash crops.
Ecocompensation: the monetary payment from environmental markets and transfer payment from governments are given to the individuals who help provide direct and indirect ecosystem service as monetary reward, by changing the individuals’ behavior or ‘doing nothing’ to ensure there is an intact ecosystem to continue to provide ecosystem services. (Analytical and Advisory Assistant program, world bank, 2007) .
1400m*****

11. Questions
What is the Net Present Value of existing rubber and where are low profitability plantations?
What is the total value of ecosystem services derived from natural forests compared to rubber plantations?
Is there a balance of economic development and conservation in Xishuangbanna by eco-compensation?
What the spatial benefit of rubber plantations across the landscape.

12. Question 1
1. What is the Net Present Value of existing rubber and where are low profitability plantations?

13. Net present value of rubber plantation on state farm (SF) vs
Net present value of rubber plantation on state farm (SF) vs. smallholder (SH)
Net present value (NPV) or net present worth (NPW) is defined as the total present value (PV) of a time series of cash flows. It is a standard method for using the time value of money to appraise long-term projects. Used for capital budgeting, and widely throughout economics, it measures the excess or shortfall of cash flows, in present value
Bt denotes the revenue in the year t ;Ct stands for the cost in the year t (including establishment cost); r is interest rate. T is rotation years, the state farm is 40 years.
NPV is a time series analysis of cash flow for a given investment, comparing the initial value of the investment to the expected reward over the investment's lifespan, given some social discount rate. For example, you might need to find out if you want to run a canteen or just save your money in the bank, if you gave more benefit in next 10 years from the bank because you saved the money there. Then you wont run the canteen with the limited money.

14. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Climate data collection
1173 sample sites
Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
Climate data collection
Smallholder Field data collection
State farm long-term measurement
Annual rubber productivity
Soil data collection
500 sample sites, were measured in Menglun township. Then, we created landscape models for rubber productivity, using regression analysis of field measurement of latex production against 46 environmental and climatic variables.

15. The targets of reforestation and forest protection
1st, if average productivity of rubber plantations is less than 170kg/ha.yr , they were never profitable even at very high prices, since the cost of the plantations (establishing and management cost) is $560/ha.yr.--- for forest restoration.
2nd, plantations situated above 900m elevation or on slopes >24° were not profitable, even at high prices. ---for remaining forest protection
Map of net present value of rubber plantations in Xishuangbanna

16. Answer to question 1
Elevation, slope and rubber tree age are main rubber productivity factors .
Plantations over 900m or slope >24°are not profitable.
It is not necessary to pay much eco-compensation to recover the low profit rubber plantations.

17. Question 2
2. What is the total value of ecosystem services derived from natural forests compared to rubber plantations?

18. Land-use scenarios A. Business-as-usual Scenario
B. Conservation Scenario

19. Landuse and cover types Carbon Sequestration (t/ha) 122 116 105
Carbon Sequestration of different types of land use and land cover
Landuse and
cover types
Carbon
Sequestration
(t/ha)
Seasonal rainforest
122
Paddy field 5
Mantane rainforest
116
Tea plantations 14
Evergreen broad-leaf forest
105
Favorable RP 35
Pinus forest 32
Unfavorable RP 15
Alnus forest 60
Residential area
Mossy evergreen broad
-leaf forest 80
Water body
Shrub and grass land 13
Li et al 2008; Xi 2009;Song and Zhang 2010; Zhang et al. 2011

20. Carbon sequestration by two land-use scenarios
0.28 billion ton Carbon loss from B to A
0.72 billion ton carbon over 25 years
1 billion ton carbon over 25 years
A. Business as usual scenario
B. Conservation scenario

21. Rubber NPV v.s. carbon sequestration
Carbon Sequestration (ton)
NPV of rubber plantation ($/ha)
elevation
Carbon Price= NPV of rubber plantations/Carbon Sequestration

22. Market value of rubber V.S. carbon
Elevation
Conservation scenario
Business-as-usual scenario
CP(5.3%)
CP(8%)
<600
11.509
21.674
31.271
58.888
13.607
25.624
33.334
62.773
10.914
20.553
18.582
34.992
8.322
15.671
14.715
27.710
4.226
7.958
12.350
23.258
0.017
0.032
8.019
15.102
0.004
0.008
3.924
7.389
0.000
1.975
3.719
1.444
2.720
0.001
0.002
-0.002
-0.003
>2000

23. carbon value for policy-making
Carbon market can protect large area of Xishuangbanna.
Carbon market can be a reliable eco-compensation source.

24. GIS-based water balance model

25. Water value
Lowland area will be more drier in the future by A. scenario
7766 ton water annually
7011 ton water annually
51%
A. Business as usual scenario
B. Conservation scenario

26. Market value of rubber V.S. water
Elevation
Conservation scenario (USD/L)
Business-as-usual scenario (USD/L)
WMP
(5.3%)
(8%)
<600
9.27
17.45
24.13
45.43
9.92
18.68
37.27
70.18
9.06
17.06
22.76
42.87
7.21
13.58
11.74
22.11
2.66
5.01
5.07
9.55
0.01
2.60
4.90
0.00
1.22
2.30
0.71
1.34
0.52
0.98
>2000

27. Question 2
2. What is the total value of ecosystem services derived from natural forests compared to rubber plantations?

28. Answers to question 2
A larger area of natural forest will be protected by carbon finance compared to water market.
Conserving and purifying water will require large economic investment over next 25 years.
Rubber expansion would cost more than protecting environment.

29. Question 3
3. Is there a balance of economic development and conservation in Xishuangbanna by eco-compensation?
In order to answer this question, we assimilate 3 landuse scenarios to look at what is the best development strategy for Xishuangbanna in the future.

30. Land could be protected by carbon and water markets
$0.16/ton water
$4.9/ton C
51%

31. The main activities and outputs
We had composed a ecological land-use planning for Xishuangbanna Prefecuture Government;
We had started two pilot sites with Xishuangbanna Prefecture Government and other local research institutes to explore agro-rubber/green rubber based on our study results;
We had brought nearly 50 scientists, government officials and village representatives in a workshop this Jan. to discuss the validation of our study results, and also potential PES schemes in Xishuangbanna;
We are going to invite high level government officials and more local stakeholders to join our coming workshop to conduct PES overview this Nov..

32. ICRAF-China thanks all of your support