1. Building on the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

2. Long-term Total International Migration to UK by Citizenship Group (1991 -2009)
Changing patterns in total migration
Changing patterns of citizenship
Changing patterns of migrant distribution
Old method worked well for most of 1990s
IPS found wanting for totals and distributions
Big discrepencies with 2001 Census
EU expansion in 2004
NS Internation Migration Quality Review 2003 led to creation of IMPS and LA Reviews

3. 1. Information on migrants as they enter or leave UK
Reviews
Interdepartmental Task Force on Migration Statistics
Treasury Select Committee
LA Studies
UK Statistics Authority Report on Migration Statistics
National Statistician established Interdepartmental Task Force department in May 2006
Reported in December Fifteen recommendations in five broad groups
1. Information on migrants as they enter or leave UK
2. Comprehensive/timely information on migrants in UK
3. Linkage - better information on migrants’ intentions
4. Timely, robust indicators of migrant numbers
5. Coherent migration reporting
LA Sudies led to need for plausibility ranges
UK Statistics Authority Report on Migration statistics proposed conception framework and quality indicators
Treasury Select Committee endorsed these proposals

4. Pre-MSIP Migration and Population Statistics IPS
Census and, LFS and IPS used to create distributions
Complex methodology
Confused messages between departments

5. MSIP Launched in April 2008 Cross-government Programme
Contributions from OGDs
Statistics and Registration Services Act 2007
Ministerial Oversight
5 year programme
MSIP

6. MSIP Benefits Effective quality assurance
Improved user confidence in migration and population statsitcs
Effective quality assurance
Platform for future delivery of e-Borders
Quantification of uncertainty around population estimates
Improved quality of National and sub-National migration statistics
Increased efficiency in the production of migration statistics
MSIP
Benefits

7. MSIP Objectives Improve the IPS
strategy for exploiting e-borders and visas
Improve the way we report on migration
Improve demographic models
Maximise the use we make of admin sources)
removal of barriers to record linkage
Additional Census questions to identify migrants
Develop conceptual framework for population statistics
Develop measures of uncertainty
Develop plausibility ranges
MSIP
Objectives

8. LA immigration distributional improvements
Current*
Improved
National Immigration Estimate (IPS)
Distribute using 3 yr LFS average
Region/UK country
Intermediate Geography
Use 3 yr IPS average
Model-based distribution
Distribute using administrative data
Local Authority
* For non-London LAs. A similar , but slightly more complex method is used for London LAs

9. Improved immigration distribution model
IPS England and Wales Estimate (plus switcher adjustments)
Returning Migrants
UK Born Non-UK Born
Others
Children
Students
Workers
LTM
Worker
distribution
Migrant
Workers
Scan L2
HESA
(Higher Education)
BIS/WG
(Further
Education)
STM Student
Distribution/
estimate
LTM
Student
distribution
GP Patient Register:
‘Flag 4s’
2001 Census
distribution
Asylum
Seekers
(NASS)
Residual (including short-term migrants
Local Authority Immigration (LTIM) estimates

10. Example of Centralising Tendency

11. Plausibility Ranges Administrative sources High estimate
Explore and Combine
Low estimate

12. Conceptual Framework

13. Summary Pre-MSIP Now Migration and Population Statistics Improved IPS
Census and, LFS and IPS used to create distributions
Complex methodology
Confused messages between departments
Migration and Population Statistics
Improved IPS
Use of administrative data
Transparent methodology
Coherent reporting
Data sharing

14. Future Priorities E-Borders Internal migration Emigration
Reconciliation of new methods with Census
National Statistics Status for short-term immigration estimates at local authority level
Exploiting the conceptual framework
Plausibility ranges for other age groups

15. E-Borders Further analysis Autumn 2012
Building on previous analysis using more comprehensive data
Recommendations on use of e-borders data to be made in 2013
Long-term immigration
IPS Weighting
Circular migration

16. Internal Migration Comparison with Census Estimates
Exploiting the Patient Demographic Spine

17. Emigration Examination of existing emigration model
Examination of other sources of data