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Building on the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

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Presentation on theme: "Building on the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme"— Presentation transcript:

1 Building on the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

2 Long-term Total International Migration to UK by Citizenship Group (1991 -2009)
Changing patterns in total migration Changing patterns of citizenship Changing patterns of migrant distribution Old method worked well for most of 1990s IPS found wanting for totals and distributions Big discrepencies with 2001 Census EU expansion in 2004 NS Internation Migration Quality Review 2003 led to creation of IMPS and LA Reviews

3 1. Information on migrants as they enter or leave UK
Reviews Interdepartmental Task Force on Migration Statistics Treasury Select Committee LA Studies UK Statistics Authority Report on Migration Statistics National Statistician established Interdepartmental Task Force department in May 2006 Reported in December Fifteen recommendations in five broad groups 1. Information on migrants as they enter or leave UK 2. Comprehensive/timely information on migrants in UK 3. Linkage - better information on migrants’ intentions 4. Timely, robust indicators of migrant numbers 5. Coherent migration reporting LA Sudies led to need for plausibility ranges UK Statistics Authority Report on Migration statistics proposed conception framework and quality indicators Treasury Select Committee endorsed these proposals

4 Pre-MSIP Migration and Population Statistics IPS
Census and, LFS and IPS used to create distributions Complex methodology Confused messages between departments

5 MSIP Launched in April 2008 Cross-government Programme
Contributions from OGDs Statistics and Registration Services Act 2007 Ministerial Oversight 5 year programme MSIP

6 MSIP Benefits Effective quality assurance
Improved user confidence in migration and population statsitcs Effective quality assurance Platform for future delivery of e-Borders Quantification of uncertainty around population estimates Improved quality of National and sub-National migration statistics Increased efficiency in the production of migration statistics MSIP Benefits

7 MSIP Objectives Improve the IPS
strategy for exploiting e-borders and visas Improve the way we report on migration Improve demographic models Maximise the use we make of admin sources) removal of barriers to record linkage Additional Census questions to identify migrants Develop conceptual framework for population statistics Develop measures of uncertainty Develop plausibility ranges MSIP Objectives

8 LA immigration distributional improvements
Current* Improved National Immigration Estimate (IPS) Distribute using 3 yr LFS average Region/UK country Intermediate Geography Use 3 yr IPS average Model-based distribution Distribute using administrative data Local Authority * For non-London LAs. A similar , but slightly more complex method is used for London LAs

9 Improved immigration distribution model
IPS England and Wales Estimate (plus switcher adjustments) Returning Migrants UK Born Non-UK Born Others Children Students Workers LTM Worker distribution Migrant Workers Scan L2 HESA (Higher Education) BIS/WG (Further Education) STM Student Distribution/ estimate LTM Student distribution GP Patient Register: ‘Flag 4s’ 2001 Census distribution Asylum Seekers (NASS) Residual (including short-term migrants Local Authority Immigration (LTIM) estimates

10 Example of Centralising Tendency

11 Plausibility Ranges Administrative sources High estimate
Explore and Combine Low estimate

12 Conceptual Framework

13 Summary Pre-MSIP Now Migration and Population Statistics Improved IPS
Census and, LFS and IPS used to create distributions Complex methodology Confused messages between departments Migration and Population Statistics Improved IPS Use of administrative data Transparent methodology Coherent reporting Data sharing

14 Future Priorities E-Borders Internal migration Emigration
Reconciliation of new methods with Census National Statistics Status for short-term immigration estimates at local authority level Exploiting the conceptual framework Plausibility ranges for other age groups

15 E-Borders Further analysis Autumn 2012
Building on previous analysis using more comprehensive data Recommendations on use of e-borders data to be made in 2013 Long-term immigration IPS Weighting Circular migration

16 Internal Migration Comparison with Census Estimates
Exploiting the Patient Demographic Spine

17 Emigration Examination of existing emigration model
Examination of other sources of data


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