1. Rodel D. Lasco Professor University of the Philippines
Climate Change Impacts and Potential Adaptation Strategies in Watersheds in the Philippines
Rodel D. Lasco
Professor
University of the Philippines

2. 7 Steps of Climate Impacts and Adaptations Assessment (UNEP, 1996)
DEFINING PROBLEM 2
SELECT METHOD 3
TEST METHOD/SENSITIVITY 4
FORMULATE INPUTS ANDASSUMPTIONS 5
ASSESS BIOPHYSICAL AND
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS 6
ASSESS AUTONOMOUS ADJUSTMENT 7
EVALUATE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

3. APF Project Example (UNEP, 2003)
1. Scope project design
Engage
Stake-
holders
2. Assess Current Vulnerability
Increase
Adaptive
capacity
3.Characterise Future Climate-related Risks
4. Develop Adaptation Strategy
5. Continue Adaptation Process

4. Water Resources

7. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources
Increase in volume
Decrease in streamflow
Increase severity, frequency and variability
Increase in soil erosion and sedimentation
Increase in the demand for water

8. Change in Precipitation Change in Temperature (°C)
Table 1. Changes in precipitation, temperature, and runoff for Angat water reservoir from three GCMs (based on 2xCO2)
GCM
Change in Precipitation
Change in Temperature (°C)
Change in Runoff
CCCM
UKMO
GFDL
-6% 3%
15%
+2.0
+3.1
+2.4
-12% 5%
32%
Source: Jose et al., 1996

10. Adaptation Strategies
Increase water supply
Modify vegetation
Impoundment
Reduce evaporation
Water importation

11. Adaptation Strategies 2
Decrease water demand
Decrease water demanding activities
Behavioral change
Water reuse
Recycling
Economic instruments

12. Adaptation Strategies 3
Manage supply and demand
Synchronize cropping systems to match water availability
Maximize multiple use of water

13. Supply Adaptation Demand Adaptation
Table 5 Supply and demand adaptation strategies for the water resources sector of the Philippines
Supply Adaptation
Demand Adaptation
Comprehensive watershed management
Water allocation system and procedures
Enhanced irrigation efficiency
Low water use crops and efficient farming practices
Recycling (reuse) of water
Improvement of monitoring and forecasting systems for floods and droughts
Water pricing policies and structures
Enhanced awareness of climatic change and variability
Source: Cruz, 2002

18. Forest resources

21. Impacts on Forest Resources in the Philippines
most of the forest resources of the country are in watershed areas
tropical forests will likely expand as temperature and precipitation increase
Increased forest clearing due to:
Droughts and floods
Inc population and dec in arable lands
Increase vulnerability to fires

22. T change may lead to a loss of a few species of plants and animals
changes in T and precipitation may result to the outbreak of pests and diseases

23. Potential Adaptation Options (IPCC, 2001)
Forest management used to long term decisions under uncertain future market and biological conditions
Most adaptation will occur under managed forests
Salvaging dead and dying timber
Replanting with species better suited to new climate
Planting genetically modified species
Intensifying or decreasing management

24. Exotics vs indigenous species?

25. Biodiversity
conservation