1. Crop Marketing & Outlook
Iowa PAS Regional Fall Conference
Ames, Iowa
September 25, 2009
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2007 2008 2009 Area Planted (mil. acres) 93.5
86.0
87.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
150.7
153.9
161.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,038
12,101
12,954
Beg. Stocks
1,304
1,624
1,695
Imports 20 15 10
Total Supply
14,362
13,740
14,660
Feed & Residual
5,913
5,250
5,350
Ethanol
3,049
3,675
4,200
Food, Seed, & Other
1,338
1,270
1,275
Exports
2,437
1,850
2,200
Total Use
12,737
12,020
13,025
Ending Stocks
1,635
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.20
4.08
3.35
Source: USDA 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2007
2008
2009
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
64.7
75.7
77.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.7
39.6
42.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,677
2,959
3,245
Beg. Stocks
574
205
110
Imports 10 15
Total Supply
3,261
3,179
3,366
Crush
1,803
1,660
1,690
Seed & Residual 93
139
175
Exports
1,159
1,280
Total Use
3,056
3,069
3,145
Ending Stocks
220
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
10.00
9.10
Source: USDA 3 3

4. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use
2007
2008
2009
Production
(thou. tons)
42,282
39,566
40,235
Beg. Stocks
343
294
300
Imports
141
140
165
Total Supply
42,766
40,000
40,700
Domestic Demand
33,230
30,800
Export Demand
9,242
8,900
9,600
Total Use
42,472
39,700
40,400
Ending Stocks
Average Price
($/ton)
355.94
325.00
280.00
Source: USDA 4 4

5. Historical Freeze Data
Source: Dr. Elwynn Taylor, ISU

6. Fall Temperature Outlook
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

7. World Corn Production
Source: USDA 7 7

8. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA 8 8

9. Hog Returns vs. Corn Prices
Sources: ISU Extension, Farrow-to-Finish;
USDA-NASS

10. Smaller Livestock Numbers
Source: USDA, NASS, various reports

11. Exchange Rates (Jan = 1)
Source: USDA, ERS

12. Exchange Rates (Jan = 1)
Source: USDA, ERS

13. Exports & Advance Sales (1st 3 weeks of marketing year)
Source: USDA, FAS

14. 2009 U.S. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

15. 2009 U.S. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

16. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
50% GHG Emission Reduction
60% GHG Emission Reduction
20% GHG Emission Reduction
If construction started after Dec. 2007 16

17. Ethanol Margins
Source: ISU, CARD

18. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Crop
Year
Billion Bushels
2008
3.57
2009
4.11
2010
4.43
2011
4.64 18 18

19. Outside Influences (Jan. 2007 = 1)

20. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA, NYMEX

21. Bio-based Market Opportunities
Source: Informa Economics,
Biobased Multi-Client Study, March 2006

22. Biobased Pathways
Source: USDA, 2008, U.S. Biobased Products: Market Potential and Projections Through 2025

23. Dept. of Energy Projections
Source: Energy Information Administration,
Annual Energy Outlook 2009

24. Draft Lifecycle GHG Reductions
Source: EPA, May 2009 24

25. Corn

26. Corn

27. Seasonal Pricing Patterns
Source: USDA, NASS,
Monthly Price Data

28. Corn Futures
2009 Rev. Ins. Price $4.04
Source: CBOT, 9/24/09

29. Soybean Futures
2009 Rev. Ins. Price $8.80
Source: CBOT, 9/24/09

30. Soybean Meal Futures
Source: CBOT, 9/24/09

31. Iowa Crop Basis

32. Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn
Source: CBOT

33. Input Costs
Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, Aug. 31, 2009

34. Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Recession concerns still hold significant power in the markets
Projected economic recovery is a major key for crop prices for the 2009 crop year
Continued weakness in the dollar helping exports
Most important ag. statistics: Weather forecast, feed demand
USDA is indicating 2009 season-average prices in the neighborhood of $3.35 for corn and $9.10 for soybeans
Current futures Yesterday: Corn $3.14, Soy $8.70

35. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: