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Jiaxin Yang Sang Hyuk Yoon November 3, 2016

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Presentation on theme: "Jiaxin Yang Sang Hyuk Yoon November 3, 2016"— Presentation transcript:

1 Jiaxin Yang Sang Hyuk Yoon November 3, 2016
NYSE: ABBV Jiaxin Yang Sang Hyuk Yoon November 3, 2016

2 Abbvie Overview Company Overview Revenue Breakdown Management Timeline
Founded Founded in 2012 Location Headquartered in Illinois Sector Healthcare Industry Drug Manufacturers - Major Products HUMIRA, IMBRUVICA, HCV, Additional Virology, Metabolic/Hormones, Endocrinology, Ohters Customers Managed care provider, Hospitals, Governments Management Timeline Richard A. Gonzalez Chief Executive Officer William J. Chase Chief Financial Officer Azita Saleki-Gerhardt Senior Vice President of Operations Michael E. Severiono Chief Scientific Officer Timohty J. Richmond Senior Vice President of Human Recources October 2011 Abbott announced the plan of spin-off of AbbVie January 2013 AbbVie got listed on the NYSE May 2015 AbbVie completed the acquisition of Pharmacyclics June 2016 AbbVie closed the acquisition of Stemcentrx December 2016 HUMIRA’s patent expected to expire in US Data from Form 10-K and Capital IQ

3 Innovative-driven, patient-focused specialty biopharmaceutical company
Management Innovative-driven, patient-focused specialty biopharmaceutical company 1 2 3 4 Growing Revenue through continued strong performance from its existing portfolio of on-market products as well as growth from pipeline products Continued investment in its pipeline in support of opportunities in immunology, oncology, and virology, as well as continued investment in key on-market products Expanding gross and operating margins Augmentation of its pipeline through concerted focus on strategic licensing, acquisition and partnering activity with a focus on identifying compelling programs that fit’ AbbVie’s strategic criteria 5 Returning cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases Data from Form 10-K

4 Key Products - Treat autoimmune diseases
HUMIRA - Treat autoimmune diseases - Approved in U.S. , E.U. and other over 60 markets including Japan, China, Brazil and Australia - Expiration of the patent in U.S. in December 2016 and in E.U. in April 2018 VIEKIRA PAK - Treat Hepatitis C (HCV); HCV affects 160 million worldwide - Granted EU marketing authorization in January 2015 - Key driver of Abbvie’s future performance IMBRUVICA - A novel, orally active, selective covalent inhibitor of Bruton’s Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) - Acquired through the acquisition of Pharmacyclics, Inc. (Pharmacyclics) in May 2015 - Hematological oncology market $27 billion in 2014, growing to $50 billion by 2020 DUODOPA - AbbVie’s levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel for the treatment of advanced Parkinson’s disease - US Parkinson’s disease population of 1 million of which 190 thousands may be eligible for therapy - One of key focus for the business in the future Data from Form 10-K

5 Macroeconomics Data from World Bank. Data from World Bank.

6 Macroeconomics Data from World Bank. Data from PwC.

7 . - Porter’s Five Forces Threat of New Entrants Substitutes Supplier
Bargaining Power Buyer Rivalry High Low Moderate Effect of Compliments Forces Level Factors Threat of New Entrants Low High Capital Requirements Economies of Scale Threat of Substitutes High Bio-similar & Generic Drugs Alternative Treatments Supplier Bargaining Power In-house Production Multitude of Suppliers Buyer Bargaining Power Moderate Patent-protected Products Rivalry Fragmented Market Merger & Acquisition Effect of Compliments Regulation (Affordable Care Act) Healthcare Provider

8 SWOT Analysis Strength Opportunity Weakness Threats
Blockbuster Drug (HUMIRA) Various Products Patents Protection Strong Brand Presence Strength Increasing Market Demand Aging and Growing Population Merger & Acquisition Biotechnology Boom Opportunity Highly Dependent on HUMIRA Patent Expiration Complex Manufacturing Process One Segment Weakness Government Regulations Generic & Bio-simliar Products Currency Exchange Rate Litigation Threats

9 Recent News 10/28/2016 AbbVie reported third quarter 2016 financial results Raised 2016 Diluted EPS guidance range to $3.74-$3.76 Increased quarterly dividend by 12.3% up to $0.64 per share 10/22/2016 FDA warned two of AbbVie’s new hepatitis C treatments, Viekira Pak and Technivie 9/29/2016 AbbVie opened first phase of its Global Manufacturing Facility in Singapore Information from AbbVie Website and Wall Street Journal

10 Technical Analysis Trailing P/E 15.35 Forward P/E 10.20 Beta 1.43
52-Week Change -9.58% S&P Week Change 0.09% 52 Week High 68.12 52 Week Low 50.71 50-Day Moving Average 62.13 200-Day Moving Average 62.87 Dividend Yield 4.16% Date Cost Volume Current Price Gain Total Gain Portfolio Weight 2013/01/02 $27.08 100 shares $56.79 $29.71 $2, (109.71%) 1.37% Data from Yahoo Finance

11 Financial Performance
Data from Form 10-K and Capital IQ

12 Financial Performance
Data from Form 10-K and Capital IQ

13 Comparable Companies Company Name Market Capitalization Main Business
Amgen Inc. (NasdaqGS:AMGN) $108,002mm Discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY) $85,233mm Discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide Gilead Sciences Inc. (NasdaqGS:GILD) $97,496mm Research-based biopharmaceutical company Discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines in areas of unmet medical needs in North America, South America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) $78,649mm Discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceutical products worldwide Two segments: Human Pharmaceutical Products and Animal Health Products Data from Capital IQ

14 Comparable Companies Data from Form 10-K and Capital IQ

15 Comparable Analysis Comparable Company TEV/LTM Revenue TEV/LTM EBIT
TEV/LTM EBITDA LTM P/Diluted EPS Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) 4.0x 16.6x 32.4x Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) 3.4x 5.2x 6.5x Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) 4.7x 15.0x 25.5x Amgen Inc. (AMGN) 9.1x 14.5x Comparable Statistics TEV/LTM Revenue TEV/LTM EBIT TEV/LTM EBITDA LTM P/Diluted EPS High 4.7x 23.5x 16.6x 32.4x Low 3.4x 5.5x 5.2x 6.5x Mean 4.2x 14.1x 11.5x 19.7x Median 4.3x 13.7x 12.0x 20.0x Data from Form 10-Q and Capital IQ

16 Comparable Analysis Implied Price: $63.61 ABBV ABBV Implied Price
Cash& ST Investments $ ,002.00 Debt $ ,845.00 Shares Outstanding $ ,664.11 ABBV Implied Price Multiples TEV/LTM Revenue TEV/EBIT TEV/LTM EBITDA LTM P/Diluted EPS High $ $ $ $ Low $ $ $ $ Mean $ $ $ $ Median $ $ $ $ weight 10% 40% Implied Price: $63.61

17 Revenue Drivers Data from Form 10-K and Capital IQ

18 Discount Rate WACC: 8.77% + Premium: 1.00% Discount Rate: 9.77%

19 Discounted Cash Flow Implied Price: $ 59.61

20 Sensitivity Analysis Price Range: $53.29 ~ $75.70

21 Hold Recommendation Comparable $63.61 Growing Demand M & A DCF $59.61
Current $56.79 Patent Expiration FDA Warning Growing Demand M & A Hold


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