1. Analyzing Renewable Energy Investments
Fuzzy set theory
Kozlova M. & Collan M. (2014)
Financing renewable energy projects
in Russia under new legislation
Scientific conference on Renewable
Energy Sources, Moscow
System dynamics
Simulation
Dynamic
programming
Kozlova M., Collan M. & Luukka P. (2015). Renewable Energy in Emerging Economies: Shortly Analyzing the Russian Incentive Mechanisms for Renewable Energy Investments.
International Research Conference ‘GSOM Emerging Markets Conference-2015: Business and Government Perspectives’, Saint-Petersburg, Russia.
Sensitivity analysis
Kozlova M., Collan M. & Luukka P. (2015). Comparing Datar-Mathews and fuzzy pay-off approaches to real option valuation.
Real Option Workshop, Lappeenranta, Finland.
Kozlova M., Collan M. & Luukka P.
Convergence of real option approaches based on probability and possibility theories.
Submitted to International Journal of Real Options and Strategy in November 2015.
Kozlova M., Collan M. & Luukka P.
Simulation Decomposition Approach for Investment Analysis.
In progress.
Fuzzy pay-off method extension with fuzzy inference rules for in-depth investment analysis.
Capital budgeting
Real option concept
Kozlova M. & Collan M.
Modeling the effects of the new Russian capacity mechanism on renewable energy investments
Accepted for publication in Energy Policy
Multi-expert
multi-criteria
models
Analyzing
Renewable Energy
Investments
Decision-making support
Finnish
case
Hidden risks
analysis
Russian case
RE policy
Regional
analysis
Business model
analysis
Large
scale RE
Medium
scale RE

2. $ Invest or not invest? Electricity sales Investment Operating costs
Subsidy
Invest or not invest?

3. PROFIT
LOSS

4. Project performance
Subsidy
High
100%
Within limit
Over the limit 1
Electricity
production
Medium
80% 2
Low
Within limit
Over the limit 3 0% 4
Within limit
Over the limit 5
Fulfilled
Local
content
Fulfilled
100% 6 7
Failed
Within limit
Over the limit
 50%
Failed 8
Within limit
Over the limit 9
Fulfilled
Capital
expenses
Within limit
Lower influence 10
Over the limit
Higher influence
Within limit
Over the limit 11
Failed 12

6. Thank you for your attention!