1. Reassessing Fear of Crime in England and Wales: Preliminary findings from the Experience and Expression project on ‘Fear, Confidence and Policing’
Emily Gray, University of Keele;
Stephen Farrall, University of Sheffield
Jonathan Jackson, London School of Economics ;
Funded by UK Economic & Social Research Council Award No. RES

2. Outline of the presentation
The new measurement strategy: experiential and expressive aspects of fear
Outline of our theoretical framework
Analysis of the BCS data and the processes that underpin fear
How does this relate to policing and confidence?

3. Point of departure
Public thoughts & feelings about crime and crime-risk are multi-faceted
Questionnaires inevitably struggle – e.g. Farrall et al. (1997)
Psychological and sociological literature on everyday emotion – ways forward for criminology?
Social theory on cultural significance of crime
‘Fear of crime feedback loop’ a la Murray Lee

4. Lineage to our theory Ferraro (1995) is the starting point
-Representative sample survey of the US
-Defined ‘fear’ as ‘…an emotional response of dread or anxiety to crime or symbols that a person associates with crime.’
-Asked people ‘how afraid’ they were about falling victim of a number of crimes
- Defined ‘risk perception’ as subjective probabilities
Asked people ‘how likely’ they thought it was that they would fall victim
Jackson (2001) UK
-Conducted a similar study and found by linking symbols of social breakdown with the threat of victimisation, people used ‘crime’ as a neo-Durkheimian marker of moral structure
-Fear acts as a lay seismograph of social organisation and control.

5. Thus, the fear of crime …
. . . means different things to different people
But can we devise measures that tap into specific aspects of fear?
And can we make some sense of what different measures are measuring?

6. Measuring the ‘experiential’ and ‘expressive’ dimensions of fear
Old questions; “how worried are you about….”
New questions:
- “have you worried in the past 12 months?”
- “how many times have you worried about… in the last 12 months”
- “On the last occasion how fearful did you feel?’
So, back to our project and the data we’ve had access to:
During the study, we’ve been exploring the possiblility of measuring two different manifestations of fear – one grounded in the everyday experinece and the other tapping into something more akin to a social attitude if you like – what we call ‘Expressive’ fear.
We were able to draw on two measures of the fear of crime in the BCS. The ‘old style’ questions – which are a staple aspect of the BCS – ask, year of year “ how worried are you about..” various crimes. You can respond on a likert scale not worries, not very worred, quite or very worried.
In addition in the 2003/4 sweep we included a new question which was fielded to a sub- sample (follow-up) of about 4,500. These questions – asked at a different point in the survey are quite different and involved three questions per offence. It starts with a novel filter question – in the last 12 months have you worried about Roberry? People give a number. Then ‘On the last occasion how fearful did you feel?’ [not very worried, a little bit worried, quite worried, very worried or cannot remember].
In short, we predicted that these new questions about frequency would better capture the everyday experience of worry. Questions one and two focus on frequency of crime worries and allow an estimation of the fear of crime that is arguably more precise. Specifically, individuals can be classified according to whether they worry and, if they do, how often. Of course, it is an empirical question as to whether this strategy produces different results to standard measures. But as mentioned above, there is early evidence that might be the case (Farrall et al., 1997; Farrall and Gadd, 2004; Jackson et al., 2006).

7. Top-line findings ‘old’ question
Standard or 'old' style measure of the fear of crime – ‘How worried are you about being mugged?’
Overall intensity of worry %
Not at all worried 11
Not very worried 24
Fairly worried 45
Very worried 20
Don’t know
0.1
Total
100
Source: 2003/2004 British Crime Survey, weighted data, sub-sample Follow-up D2

8. Top-line findings ‘new’ questions
New measures of the fear of crime – frequency of worry about mugging in last 12 months
Filter question %
Follow-up frequency question
(raw scores categorised)
% of those who worried
% of all respondents
Not worried in the past year 85
Has worried in the past year 15
1-3 times 35 5
4-11 times 25 4
12-52 times 24
53+ times 9 2
Don’t know 7 1
Source: 2003/2004 British Crime Survey, weighted data, sub-sample Follow-up D2

9. Top-line findings – x-tab
Cross tabulation of old and new measures – Robbery
Old measure: How worried about being mugged and robbed? %
Not at all worried
Not very worried
Fairly worried
Very worried
New filter frequency: how many times have you worried about robbery?
never
97.9
92.7
73.4
61.7
1-3 times
1.1
3.7
9.3
9.9
4-11 times
0.5
1.8
7.2
11.4
12-52 times
0.4
7.9
53+ times
0.1
2.2
5.6
Intriguingly another comparison can be made – to cross tabulate the frequencies produced using the old and the new questions. Recall, around 89% reported being worried about being mugged or robbed on the old questions – but some of those respondents clearly gave a different answer when asked if they had actually worried about being mugged during the past 12 months: So, for the table we can see 62% of those who said they had been ‘very worried’ also said that they had not actually worried in the last 12 months. Similary 73% who reported being fairly worried, later said they had not worried in the past 12 months.
Overall, our findings suggest old measures are tapping into some aspect of the fear of crime that possibly includes the frequency of its experience, but also something else – and this is particularly so for mugging and robbery. In other words, the data show that surprising proportions of people who say they worry about crime, have not actually worried about crime recently. In actual fact, worry seems to be relatively infrequent occasion among the general British population.
So far, we believe this data suggests that, as a lived experience, the fear of crime might represent a continuum of feelings which are distributed along a spectrum between two distinctly different emotional reactions. At one end, the most emotive aspect is the experience(s) of having felt fearful in a specific situation. At the other, is a set of attitudes or opinions which are brought forth when people are asked to discuss their feelings about crime. This ‘invocation of attitude’ – which surveys are aimed at provoking and measuring – we refer to as the ‘expressive’ dimension of the fear of crime (in contrast to the ‘experiential’ dimension).
In short, questions about the regularity of worry measure something more specific than questions about an overall intensity of worry; in many instances, standard indicators may be tapping into a more diffuse anxiety (Hough, 2004), a generalised awareness of risk (Jackson, 2006), and a condensation of broader concerns about crime, stability, and social change (Taylor & Jamieson, 1996; Girling et al. 2000).
On this matter we remain cautious – and it will feature in future work. But it does chime with an influential idea within British criminology, namely that fear of crime acts as a kind of sponge, condensing a range of anxieties (see, for example, Bauman, 2002).
This has important implications for the manner in which we measure fear of crime, not least because worry about crime in the UK has become an important performance indicator – for crime reduction partnerships and the police, as well as legitimising a new wide range of anti-social behaviour strategies and community safety agendas.

10. Integrating measurement strategies
The next step of the analysis was to combine old and new measures
This way we can construct a more detailed typology of fear, and then explore the correlates and underlying mechanisms

11. Combining the two measures
The ‘unworried’: respondents who indicated (a) that they were ‘not at all’ or ‘not very’ worried, and (b) that they had not worried at all during the past year;
The ‘anxious’: respondents who indicated (a) that they were ‘fairly’ or ‘very’ worried, but (b) that they had not worried at all during the past year;
The ‘worried’: respondents who indicated that they had worried between once and 51 times over the past year
The ‘frequently worried’: respondents who indicated that they had worried at least 52 times (about once a week) over the past year

12. Frequency of the four groups by offence type %
Unworried
Anxious
Worried
Frequently worried
Total
Robbery 62 23 13 2
100
Burglary 46 27 4
Car crime 57 16 3

13. Modelling the processes
16%
.21*
Expressive fear: mugging 8%
Perception of disorder
.27*
.25*
13%
.10*
.09*
11%
.26*
Experiential fear: mugging
.28*
IMD: crime levels
Perceived likelihood of mugging
.07*
.06*
.13*
.02
.06*
.05*
12%
.24*
.17*
ACORN: changes in area
Perception of social cohesion and control
01%
00%
.07*
Knowing victim of mugging
Victim of mugging
.09*
.05*

14. Modelling the processes: results
Levels of crime and broader social changes predict public perceptions of disorder and social cohesion/collective efficacy
Both disorder and cohesion shapes perceived risk
Both types of ‘fear of crime’ are shaped by perceived risk and concerns about order/cohesion
However, the frequency of fear is also correlated with victimisation and knowing a victim

15. Modelling the processes: early results
Therefore, both types of fear express how people make sense of their local environment
Both types of fear are ‘lay seismographs of social cohesion and moral consensus’
In expressive fear, worry about crime is a way of expressing a generalised sense of risk and concern about community breakdown
In experiential fear, concern and risk are also major contributory factors
Same processes at play, except that fear manifests as everyday ‘spikes’ of emotion, partly because these people live at the ‘sharp end of life’

16. How does fear impact confidence in the police?
The British Crime Survey - became annual survey – part of ‘audit culture’
Currently the fear of crime is a performance indicator for the police, its reduction forming a key aspect of high-profile reassurance.
But we know fear of crime can be difficult to measure – it can absorb anxieties and feelings about a wide range of issues. .
Old style questions, which tap further into public sensibilities may be particularly resistant to change.
The new questions, may be able to demonstrate real improvements in local crime rates and the local environment.

17. Confidence in the police – where has it gone?
Current research suggests people who are concerned about disorder and crime are unlikely to express confidence in the police
-Skogan ‘ Responsibility’ model (2008)
-Tyler & Boekmann Accountability model (1997)
Jackson (Jackson & Sunshine, 2007; Jackson & Bradford, in press; Jackson et al., in press) found however that public confidence in policing was mediated by lay evaluations of social order.

18. Modelling Confidence in the Police: Old and New Measures of Fear of Crime
Variables
Odds ratio
[95% conf. interval]
Model I
Model II
Social class
-0.021*
-0.074
0.439
-0.015
-0.069
0.039
Education
0.134
0.068
0.000
.128***
0.061
0.195
Area Type
-0.080*
-0.208
0.222
-0.067
-0.197
0.064
Population density
-0.053*
-0.128
0.174
-0.041
-0.118
0.036
Female
0.209
0.084
0.001
.188**
0.315
Age
-0.001***
-0.002
0.348
-0.001
White
-0.533
-0.843
-.617***
-0.934
-0.300
IMD Crime Rate†
0.016
-0.009
0.205
0.013
-0.012
Interviewer Rating
0.023
-0.053
0.550
0.034
-0.044
0.112
Victimisation (n)
-0.147
-0.211
-.141***
-0.075
Know Robbery victim
-0.108
-0.271
-0.090
-0.257
0.077
Know burglary victim
-0.229
-0.375
0.002
-.199**
-0.347
-0.050
Concernsabout disorder
-0.338
-0.420
-.343***
-0.426
-0.261
Concern about cohesion
-0.137
-0.187
-.125***
-0.176
Old worry
-0.056*
-0.133
0.149
Anxious
-0.043
-0.210
0.124
Worried
-0.138
-0.307
0.030
Frequently Worried
-0.635***
-0.986
-0.284

19. In Summary....
Compared with the old questions, our new questions appear to paint a different picture of the fear of crime.
The measurement strategy is able to differentiate between everyday episodes of worry and fear of crime as a more generalised social anxiety.
When you include social and neighbourhood characteristics, confidence in the policing is most potently undermined by those who live at the sharp end of life – who experience crime, vicitimisation and worry on a ‘very frequent’ basis.
The fear of crime is indeed a complex, contested and congested concept. But our aim has been to produce valid and reliable research tools that will facilitate empirically valid frameworks of explanation..