1. Predictive Carbon Modeling
Scott Denning
Yiqi Luo
Gretchen Keppel-Aleks

2. Carbon Constraint Fivefold reduction in model spread in 2100
Predicted CO2 in 2100
(identical emissions)
Hoffman et al (2014)
Fivefold reduction in model spread in 2100
No mechanism … simple scalar multiplication of sinks

3. We Can Do Better!
Model evaluation & improvement loop at finer scales in space and time
Prediction with validation on seasonal, interannual, decadal scales
Prioritization: rank by both model skill & impact, focus field work, manipulative experiments, measurement resource
Emphasis on mechanisms & processes controlling decadal changes in sinks