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The reflexive management of uncertainty and the use of the NUSAP scheme ____________________________________________________________ M. CRAYE Brussels, 24th June 2003 Brussels
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The reflexive management of uncertainty and the use of the NUSAP scheme. M.Craye, Research Fellow Knowledge Assessment Methodologies European Commission, Joint Research Centre Brussels
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The reflexive management of uncertainty and the use of the NUSAP scheme ____________________________________________________________ Reflexivity NUSAP : what ? NUSAP for reflexive management of uncertainty : why and how ? An example : interactive NUSAP assessment of an epidemiological study Final remarks M. CRAYE Brussels, 24th June 2003 Brussels
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Reflexivity – Theoretical foundation
The reflexive management of uncertainty and the use of the NUSAP scheme ____________________________________________________________ Reflexivity – Theoretical foundation (Beck, Giddens) Reflex : self confrontation Reflection : critical study/investigation M. CRAYE Brussels, 24th June 2003 Brussels
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Reflexivity – empirical findings
The reflexive management of uncertainty and the use of the NUSAP scheme ____________________________________________________________ Reflexivity – empirical findings Analysis of a controversy on environmental health risks. 3 inter-related factors (possibly) leading to reflexivity (reflex and reflection) Complexity/uncertainty Different problem framings Institutional arrangement Input for the design of a reflexive approach M. CRAYE Brussels, 24th June 2003 Brussels
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The reflexive management of uncertainty and the use of the NUSAP scheme ____________________________________________________________ NUSAP : what ? Notation and discussion scheme for uncertainty in policy-supporting science (Funtowicz and Ravetz) Numeral – Unit – Spread – Assessment – Pedigree Different sorts of uncertainty Pedigree : Assesses the production process of scientific information Explores ignorance and indeterminacy Use of a pedigree matrix : phases and modes M. CRAYE Brussels, 24th June 2003 Brussels
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The reflexive management of uncertainty and the use of the NUSAP scheme ____________________________________________________________ NUSAP : why ? Focus on uncertainty Intention to institutional change : Scientific experts in another role Relating uncertainty to problem framing : Possible through use of the pedigree scheme (complementarity and inseparability of the formal and informal aspects of knowledge) Interesting features in view of use in interactive processes : Extension of existing notation practices Coherent, simple Flexible M. CRAYE Brussels, 24th June 2003 Brussels
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The reflexive management of uncertainty and the use of the NUSAP scheme ____________________________________________________________ NUSAP : how ? Adaptation of the pedigree scheme : Pedigree phase(s) related to framing Extension of the ‘assessing community’ Emphasis on other roles. Introduction of different perspectives. Protocol for interactive pedigree discussion ‘Reasoned and disciplined debate’ M. CRAYE Brussels, 24th June 2003 Brussels
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An example : interactive NUSAP assessment of an epidemiological study.
The reflexive management of uncertainty and the use of the NUSAP scheme ____________________________________________________________ An example : interactive NUSAP assessment of an epidemiological study. The pedigree scheme. Problem framing Data – definitions Collection Analysis (extended) Review 4 Negotiation Task force established Extended 3 Scientific Science Direct Discussion External 2 Compromise Pragmatic Bureaucratic Competition Independent 1 Inertia Symbolic Indirect Embryonic Internal Controverse Unknown Fiat No info none M. CRAYE Brussels, 24th June 2003 Brussels
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An example : discussion protocol for interactive NUSAP assessment.
The reflexive management of uncertainty and the use of the NUSAP scheme ____________________________________________________________ An example : discussion protocol for interactive NUSAP assessment. 10-15 participants ; envisaged roles Introduction to the debate goal fair speech guidelines presentation of scientific study and of pedigree scheme Debate : points of discussion related to uncertainty phases of the pedigree scheme type of questions to ‘guide’ the debate Score Reporting M. CRAYE Brussels, 24th June 2003 Brussels
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The reflexive management of uncertainty and the use of the NUSAP scheme ____________________________________________________________ Final remarks Evaluation of experiment : Process (roles, interaction) Contents (new insights ?) Further research Relation to other formal and informal methods Embediment in a broader process ‘Constructive’ use Role in knowledge and policy development and assessment M. CRAYE Brussels, 24th June 2003 Brussels
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