1. What are cognitive biases and why should innovators care about them?
Alison Bloom-Feshbach

2. Cognitive biases impact decision-making.
Cognitive biases are mental mechanisms that systematically influence judgment and decision-making.
Cognitive bias spoiler alert: do you see an old woman or a young one?
Cognitive biases occur without our conscious awareness. They help us make decisions quickly, but can impair our ability to make rational judgments.
Note: we’re not going to focus on why we have cognitive biases, but instead on their effects.

3. Cognitive biases sound vaguely familiar.
A bias you have probably heard of is cognitive dissonance: an unpleasant state of arousal that results when two cognitions are in conflict, that you are motivated to reduce. For example, if you voluntarily do a favor for someone you don’t like very much, you begin viewing the person more positively.
But today we’re going to talk about a cognitive bias that
you might not have heard of before:
the confirmation bias.

4. The confirmation bias is the tendency to find and interpret information to confirm existing beliefs.
The confirmation bias leads people to…
…Seek information that confirms expectations
….Interpret ambiguous information in line with expectations

5. You have cognitive biases. Everyone has them.
This sounds like something that people I know would never do.
Banker, Consultant
OK, then let’s play a game

6. Each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other
Each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other. Which two cards should you turn over to decide whether the following statement is true: “If there is a D on one side, there is always a 5 on the other.” D A 2 5

7. You may have gotten it right, but most people don’t.
People tend NOT to turn over the 2 card because of our bias against looking for information that will disprove our beliefs.
People tend to erroneously turn over the 5 card because we are biased to look for information that will confirm our expectations.

8. So what does this have to do with innovation? (We’re almost there)
The confirmation bias has two main effects:
Belief polarization: Given your beliefs, ambiguous information makes you believe them more strongly.
Overconfidence: Maintenance or strengthening of your beliefs in the face of contrary evidence.

9. Problem Solving Process Confirmation Bias Effects
As a result, the confirmation bias is dangerous to the core process of innovation.
Problem Solving Process
Sense Gap
Define Problem
Explore Alternatives
Select Plan
Biased search and observation
Affirmation of *my* view of the problem
Confirmation Bias Effects
Ignored alternatives
One-sided idea testing
Confirmation of existing position
Wishful thinking
Discounting of disconfirming evidence

10. How does the confirmation bias play out?
Problem Solving Process
Sense Gap
Define Problem
Explore Alternatives
Select Plan
Belief polarization:
“I’m want to use my new technology… people must be suffering without it…that’s the problem.”
Confirmation Bias Effects
Belief polarization:
Day 1: This research is inconclusive.
Day 2: It must be Option A (I knew it all along)
Overconfidence: “This plan is high risk, but we’ve worked so hard that I know it will be a success.”

11. The confirmation bias is also dangerous to the practice of innovation.
Key Elements of Innovation Performance
Culture
Process
People
Confirmation bias can lead to a lack of openness to new ideas….
…which hurts the innovation culture…
….and hampers idea generation and management…
…Making talented people want to quit!

12. Seek information that can falsify your beliefs
But all is not lost (Thank you Professor Simonsohn, MGMT 690!). Strategies for overcoming the confirmation bias:
Seek information that can falsify your beliefs
Helps you avoid the confirmation bias as you seek new information
Ask questions that lead to concrete answers
 Helps you avoid the confirmation bias in interpreting information
Avoid conveying your beliefs and intentions when asking questions to your teammate or to consumers
 Helps you prevent the confirmation bias in others