1. Lecture 9: Energy service demand projections UNIK4820/9820 UNIK: 05/04-2017 Arne Lind

2. Outline Course content Introduction to energy demand forecasts
Part 0: Outline
Outline
Course content
Introduction to energy demand forecasts
Methodology
Projection of energy demand
Households
Service sector
Industry
Transport
Calculation of energy use
Assumptions
Results
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3. Part 0: Outline
Course content (1/2)
Lecture 9 (5th of April): Energy service demand projections
Introduction
Statistics
Methodology
Energy demand sectors
Lecture 10 (19th of April): Working with scenarios (types and techniques)
A scenario typology
Techniques
Lecture 11 (26th of April): Working with scenarios (trust + acknowledged global scenarios)
Trust and the illusive force of scenarios
Acknowledged scenarios from WEO, ETP and N-ETP
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4. Part 0: Outline
Course content (2/2)
Lecture 12 (3rd of May): Linear energy system models (part 2)
How to make (and solve) a more advanced energy system model in Excel
Interpretation of results
Assignment 3 (10th of May): Linear energy system models
Solve some of the same problems as in assignment 2 by a computer
Sensitivity analysis
Lecture 12 (24th of May): Norwegian and international energy and climate policy or Linear energy system models (part 3)
Norwegian climate agreement (Klimaforliket)
2030 Climate and energy policy framework for EU
The Norwegian energy report (Energiutredningen)
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5. Introduction to energy demand forecasts
Part 1: Introduction
Introduction to energy demand forecasts
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6. Introduction The future share of renewables is a goal in many policies
Part 1: Introduction
Introduction
The future share of renewables is a goal in many policies
Since this is correlated to the future energy demand that is uncertain, the impact of different developments is of high interest
The development of energy demand is a key driver of the future energy system
Projections of energy demand are central in analyses and policies to promote conservation, efficiency, technology implementation and renewable energy production
A lot of different stakeholders are dependent on energy demand projections in their work with energy systems analyses and planning
The type of projection needed differs e.g. concerning geographical area, energy carriers, demand sectors and time levels
Many forecasts are based on projections of GDP (gross domestic product) and population sometimes including price elasticity of energy-service demand
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7. Total energy use per sector – Statistics and projection
Part 1: Introduction
Total energy use per sector – Statistics and projection
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8. Part 2: Methodology
Methodology
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9. Part 2: Methodology
Methodology
The development in useful energy demand is calculated based on the following assumptions:
No market based changes in energy efficiency
No market based changes in alternative fuels
No alternative use of technology
The forecasts are based on assumptions of economic growth, business development, demographics, etc
It also includes normative measures such as building regulations
The energy demand is divided into four main sectors: Industry, households, service & another and transport
These are further divided into sub-groups and the forecast is calculated for each of these sub-groups
The forecast is input to analyses with the energy system model TIMES-Norway
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10. Projection of drivers / activity Energy-service demand
Methodology
Part 2: Methodology A
Projection of drivers / activity
Use of energy carriers
&
technologies
Energy system model
TIMES- Norway
Energy-service demand
E = I * A I
Indicator
- Base year
- Development
Energy statistics
Energy by end-use
Statistics of drivers
Energy demand = energy service demand (input to TIMES-Norway)
Energy use = use of different energy carriers (output from TIMES-Norway)
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11. TIMES Norway (energy system model)
Part 2: Methodology
TIMES Norway (energy system model)
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12. Projection of energy demand
Part 3: Energy demand projection
Projection of energy demand
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13. Part 3: Energy demand projection
Households
The projection of energy service demand for households (E) is calculated as dwelling area (A) multiplied by specific energy service demand (I):
𝐸=𝐼 ×𝐴=𝑑𝑤𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑚 2 ×𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 [ 𝑘𝑊ℎ 𝑚 2 ]
Future dwelling area is calculated based on development of different parameters derived on historical evolution
The key statistics are presented on the next slide
The resulting development of number of households and household area is larger than the population growth
The area per dwelling and per person will also increase while the number of persons per dwelling will continue to decrease
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14. Households: Key statistics and assumptions
Part 3: Energy demand projection
Households: Key statistics and assumptions
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15. Households – Statistics for 2011
Part 3: Energy demand projection
Households – Statistics for 2011
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16. Relative development of key parameters of residential projection
Part 3: Energy demand projection
Relative development of key parameters of residential projection
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17. End service demand by end-use (Households)
Part 3: Energy demand projection
End service demand by end-use (Households)
Energy service demand by end-use is an important premise for calculation of future energy demand
The input used for the present calculations are based on publications from:
NVE
Statistics Norway
Building regulations of 2010
The energy service demand is divided into:
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting
Other electricity specific use
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18. Residential energy service demand by end-use in 2010
Part 3: Energy demand projection
Residential energy service demand by end-use in 2010
All numbers in kWh/dwelling
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19. Energy demand per household
Part 3: Energy demand projection
Energy demand per household
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20. Residential energy service demand by end-use in 2010
Part 3: Energy demand projection
Residential energy service demand by end-use in 2010
All numbers in kWh/m2
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21. Residential energy service demand 2010- 2050 for the reference path
Part 3: Energy demand projection
Residential energy service demand for the reference path
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22. Part 3: Energy demand projection
Service sector
The service sector is an aggregate of the primary and tertiary sectors and the construction sector
The projection of energy service demand for the service sector (E) is calculated as building area (A) multiplied by specific energy service demand (I):
𝐸=𝐼 ×𝐴=𝑏𝑢𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑚 2 ×𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 [ 𝑘𝑊ℎ 𝑚 2 ]
𝐸= 𝐴 𝑛𝑒𝑤 × 𝐼 𝑇𝐸𝐾10 + 𝐴 𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑢𝑟𝑏𝑖𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑑 × 𝐼 𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑢𝑟𝑏𝑖𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑑 + 𝐴 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 × 𝐼 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔
The future area of non-residential buildings is calculated as:
A= 𝐴 2010 ×𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ×𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟
The intensity factor is the annual area growth per capita
The last 14 years this intensity factor has been in average 1.6 for all subsectors where area is a relevant parameter
This factor is assumed to decrease linearly to 1.0 in 2025 and remain at that level until 2050
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23. End service demand by end-use (Service sector)
Part 3: Energy demand projection
End service demand by end-use (Service sector)
Energy service demand by end-use is an important premise for calculation of future energy demand
The input used for the present calculations are based on:
Building regulations
Statistics of total energy consumption and areas
The reference path includes energy efficiency improvements from:
Renovations
Estimated effects of the directives of energy labelling of appliances and lighting
Key parameters are presented on the next slide
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24. Key data for the service sector
Part 3: Energy demand projection
Key data for the service sector
All numbers in kWh/m2
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25. Resulting figures (Service sector)
Part 3: Energy demand projection
Resulting figures (Service sector)
The total area of non-residential building will increase from about 90 mill. m² in 2010 to about 133 mill. m² in 2050 with these assumptions
The annual new build rate is then in average 2.5% in the beginning of the analysing period declining to 0.7% in 2050
The energy service demand of service will based on these assumptions increase from about 35 TWh in 2010 to 42 TWh in 2050 (see figure next slide)
The reference path includes energy efficiency improvements from:
Renovations
Estimated effects of the directives of energy labelling of appliances and lighting
The energy service demand increases by 18% in the reference path
Energy efficiency improvements reduce the demand by 4 TWh in 2050 compared to the reference path
High population growth: 25% higher energy service demand
Low population growth: 16% lower energy service demand
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26. Energy service demand for the service sector (2010-2050)
Part 3: Energy demand projection
Energy service demand for the service sector ( )
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27. Part 3: Energy demand projection
Industry sector
The future Norwegian industrial energy demand is very uncertain and depends on several factors
E.g. global demand of important products such as primary metals
Price of raw materials
International competition
Industry demand is highly dependent on a small number of decisions with major impact on total Norwegian energy use
The reference path is therefore in principle based on assumptions of constant activities and indicators of all industrial sectors
An increase of monetary activities combined with an equal decrease of the indicator, results in the same energy demand
Close downs of plants or production increases carried out or decided up to 2014 are included in the projection
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28. Part 3: Energy demand projection
Industry: REFerence path = present activity Known close-downs and production increases are included in REF HIGH and LOW activity scenario illustrates uncertainty
REF changes after 2010:
Close down of:
Södra Cell Tofte
Norske Skog Follum
Peterson Linerboard Moss
Hunsfos fabrikker
Södra Cell Folla
REC Scanwafer Porsgrunn
Becromal
Increased activity:
Hydro Sunndal
Ormen Lange
Valhall
Goliat
Gjøa
Martin Linge
LOW activity:
No power from grid to offshore from 2040
Only 2 pulp & paper plants from 2020
Decreased production in primary metals
Generally decreased activity
HIGH activity:
Hydro Karmøy (pilot + full scale prod.)
Increased production of primary metals and chemical industry
Snøhvit power from grid to train 1 & 2
Utsira electrification
New industry activities
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29. Part 3: Energy demand projection
Transport sector
The projection of transportation demand towards 2050 is based on input to the National transportation plan, done by Institute for Transport Economics
The technology development has a great impact on the projection of energy use of transportation
Important modelling parameters include:
Future investment costs
efficiencies
Production costs
Availabilities of new fuels as hydrogen and biofuels
The energy use in transport was 58 TWh in 2010
Transport modes using road (car, freight and bus) represented 60 % of the energy use in transport in 2010
Domestic sea transport represented 22 % of the energy use
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30. Part 3: Energy demand projection
Transport sector
Part 3: Energy demand projection
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31. Part 3: Energy demand projection
Transport REF = National Transportation Plan REF-EE = follow population growth

32. Part 4: Calculation of energy use
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33. REFerence path and alternatives
Part 4: Calculation
REFerence path and alternatives
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34. Analysis assumptions Part 4: Calculation
Energy prices constant (purchased energy)
One scenario with increasing energy prices based on WEO2013 «Current policy scenario»
Present tax policy
Energy taxes 2014, constant until 2050
Biodiesel tax = fossil diesel after 2020
Zero emission cars exempted from purchase tax and VAT until 2020
Purchase tax based on CO2-emissions, power and weight until 2050
Other:
Discount rate 4 % (higher for some demand technologies)
Enova programs until 2020
Direct electric heating restricted as in TEK10
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35. Part 5: Results
Part 5: Model results
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36. Households: - Decreased energy per capita - Energy use increase, but much less than population
Part 5: Results
Driver
Starting value
2050
Persons per household
2.24
2.00
Share of apartments of new dwellings
56%
Renovation rate
2.0%
Demolition rate
0.3%
Floor area new
- single family houses - apartments - average
164 m2 93 m2 133 m2
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37. Part 5: Results
Service sector: - Decreased energy per capita - First constant energy use, then increase
Driver
Starting value
2050
Floor area growth
1.6%
1.0%
Renovation rate
2.0%
Demolition rate
0.5%
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38. Industry: Constant electricity demand in REF
Part 5: Results
Industry: Constant electricity demand in REF
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39. Energy use by type of car
Part 5: Results
Energy use by type of car
REFerence
Different scenarios
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40. Stationary demand increase by 11%, energy use by 8%
Part 5: Results
Stationary demand increase by 11%, energy use by 8%
Demand < energy use in commercial buildings due to increased use of bioenergy boilers
Demand > energy use in households due to increased use of heat pumps
Highest difference in demand and use of cars due to considerable improved efficiency
Total energy use increase by 13%
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41. Total use of electricity increase
Part 5: Results
In the reference path electricity use increase by TWh in 2050 compared to today
With a high industry activity and no restrictions in use of BEV the electricity use increase by 36 TWh until 2050
With a low industrial activity, high energy prices and low increase in transportation the electricity use will be 6 TWh less in 2050 compared to the present use
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42. Production and trade of power
Part 5: Results
Wind power production dependent on electricity certificates; 11 TWh in but no re-investment when the certificates run out
Increased hydro power production
Net power export all years
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43. Electricity consumption
Part 5: Results
Electricity consumption
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44. Part 5: Results
Final energy use and energy per capita - Statistics past 35 years - Projection next 40 years
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45. Part 5: Results
Impact of assumptions
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