1. Cianchini, F. J. Pavon-Carrasco, C. Cesaroni, L. Spogli
ESA funded Project under the STSE Swarm + Innovation Programme
INGV
S A F E
Swarm for earthquake study
A. De Santis, G. De Franceschi, R. Di Giovambattista, L. Perrone, L. Alfonsi, G.
Cianchini, F. J. Pavon-Carrasco, C. Cesaroni, L. Spogli
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
SIF Conference, Rome, 24 Sept. 2015
SAFE TEAM
INGV: Angelo De Santis, Giorgiana De Franceschi, Rita Di Giovambattista, Loredana Perrone, Lucilla Alfonsi, Gianfranco Cianchini, F. Javier Pavón-Carrasco, Claudio Cesaroni, Luca Spogli & Andrea Malagnini
PLANETEK: Leonardo Amoruso, Marianna Carbone, Cristoforo Abbattista & Daniela Drimaco

2. Outline 0. Generalities on SAFE Project 1. Project Organization
INGV
0. Generalities on SAFE Project
1. Project Organization
2. EQs & Swarm satellites
3. The vision
4. The General approach
5. Case studies
6. CONCLUSIONS
De Santis A. et al., SAFE, SIF Conference, Rome, 24 September 2015

3. 0. Generalities on SAFE 0. Generlaities on SAFE
INGV
- SAFE proposes the use of Swarm satellite data as recent frontier of Earthquake (EQ) studies.
- It aims at searching pre-EQ signals due to the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC)
- Systematic, multiparameter & multi-platform approach to study the possible effects (at satellite altitude and ground) of the slow preparation process in the lithosphere that leads to the EQ.
- Understanding the physics behind the LAIC
0. Generlaities on SAFE
De Santis A. et al., SAFE, SIF Conference, Rome, 24 September 2015

4. 1. Project Organization
INGV
1. Project Organization

5. 2a. Why Earthquake study? 2. Earthquakes & Swarm
INGV
i. For Science: Lithosphere is complex. Understanding the Earthquake (EQ) process is a fundamental step to know lithosphere and its interaction with the rest of the planet
2. Earthquakes & Swarm
ii. For the Society: EQs effects have produced 3.6 Million deaths in the last century
Understanding the EQ Process (and its eventual forecast) is one of the greatest challenges of science for which we need both ground and space observations

6. 2b. Why Swarm satellite mission
INGV
“Thus, em radiation significantly above the background noise prior to at least some EQs may be observable from space in carefully designed experiments.” (Cicerone et al., 2009)
2. Earthquakes & Swarm
i. ESA satellite mission. Launch 23 Nov. 2013
ii. Three twin satellites in quasi-polar orbits, appropriate combination of
(em, particles & gps) sensors
iii. Satellite orbiting configuration:
2 satellites (460km) +1 satellite (510km)
The specific 3-satellite Swarm configuration is expected to favour discrimination between EQ-related and non-EQ-related anomalies

7. 2c. Swarm satellites: the sensors 2. Earthquakes & Swarm
INGV
2c. Swarm satellites:
the sensors
The sensors represent the cutting edge technology in their field
2. Earthquakes & Swarm
Front
Back
© ESA
1 ASM optically-pumped metastable helium-4 magnetometer; 2 VFM Ring core fluxgate magnetometer

8. Geosystemics1: an integrated holistic vision
3. The vision
INGV
Geosystemics1: an integrated holistic vision
Patterns in the EQ preparation phase**:
3. Ionospheric anomalies
(short term)
(from satellites or ionosondes or GPS networks)
ionospheric density
em field
TEC
2. Atmospheric anomalies
- Thermal anomalies
- Clouds anomalies
1. Seismic fore-patterns
(from seismic and magnetic data)
- Acceleration (interm. term)
- non linear pdf (short term)
3. The vision
Geosystemics Research Group, INGV
**The goal is not EQ Prediction, nowadays impossible, but to understand the process of earthquake preparation and geospheres coupling based on the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC).
1 De Santis 2009, 2014; De Santis & Qamili, 2015; De Santis et al., 2015

9. 4. The General Approach
INGV
4. The General Approach

10. 5.1 Study from space: ionospheric (statistical) analyses from DEMETER satellite
INGV EQ
EQ data
Ionospheric Electronic Density
5. Case studies
DEMETER satellite
( )
~ 9000 earthquakes
M≥5 and h< 40 km
Distance from epicentre (km)
days before earthquake
3-12 days in advance
Random data
After Parrot M., Erice 2012
days before earthquake

11. * 5. Case studies INGV 11 days before the EQ M 8.8 CHILI EQ
27 Febr. 2010
06:34:14 UT
35.85°S
72.72°W
h = 35 km
5. Case studies
-17
-11 -9 *
Green=Foreshocks
Red=Mainshock & Aftershocks
M. Parrot, Erice -2012

12. 5.2 Study from ground: Two examples INGV INGV
Geosystemics
- Seismic Anomalies identified by the modified Cumulative Benioff strain (De Santis et al., 2015)
7-year acceleration
EQ at the critical point
(power-law with infinite time derivative)
Wavelet Spectrum
- Ionospheric EQ-related anomalies detected by ionosondes when they satisfy 3 simultaneous conditions on Es & F2 layers.
(Perrone et al., AG, 2010)
In Italy, period )
36% true alarms
64% false alarms
De Santis A. et al., SAFE, SIF Conference, Rome, 24 September 2015

13. 6. Conclusions Messages to take home Earthquake Physics is complex
INGV
INV
Messages to take home
Earthquake Physics is complex
A multi-attack & multi-community strategy (multi-parameter and interdisciplinary approach) to the problem is fundamental  Geosystemics
LAI Coupling exists and it is possible to be detected by space
(but with caution and together with ground data observations!)
4. However, we need to better understand the physics and identify the best model of LAIC
6. Conclusions
5. Satellite data analysis (e.g. SAFE ESA-funded Project) will provide important insight
De Santis A. et al., SAFE, SIF Conference, Rome, 24 September 2015

14. Thanks for your attention !
INGV
Geosystemics
Thanks for your attention !
De Santis A. et al., SAFE, SIF Conference, Rome, 24 September 2015