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Ambitious research question(s)

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Presentation on theme: "Ambitious research question(s)"— Presentation transcript:

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2 Ambitious research question(s)
Focus of the paper Ambitious research question(s) The paper focuses on the pre-gold standard European monetary system It uses Frankel-Wei methodology to capture “anchor currencies” for a set of others, using foreign-exchange bill This means that relates the foreign-exchange bill returns to those of Paris and London It does so using data collected for foreign-exchange bills quoted in London Conclusions: both Britain and France important around mid-19th century More analysis on OCA for Italy, Germany and LMU

3 OCA criteria are many, but can be grouped in two categories:
Comments/1: OCA Paper focuses on foreign-exchange co-movements with third countries, which (maybe) is only a part of OCA indicators OCA criteria are many, but can be grouped in two categories: Reducing exposure to asymmetric shocks (e.g. similarity in economic structure; trade openness/integration; degree of specialisation; etc.) Facilitate adjustment to asymmetric shocks (e.g. homogeneity of preferences; factor mobility; transfer payments; an effective decision-making process; etc.)

4 Comments/2: OCA (2) Some of them are easier to measure for a custom union (see “five tests” for UK and the Euro, 2003) but much more difficult in a historical context (there were tariffs between Italian pre-unitary states) For LMU, see Fendel and Maurer (2015), Flandreau and Maurel (2005) (trade, business cycles, etc.).

5 Comments/3: INstitutions
Latin Monetary Union (constituted in 1865, by France, Italy, Switzerland and Belgium, in 1867 Greece), Italy and Germany have completely different institutional arrangements To have a meaningful comparison, there is the need of an in-depth comparative analysis of their respective institutions, and – possibly – also of including them in the quantitative analysis (for LMU, see Timini, 2017)

6 Comments/4: METHodology
Frankel-Wei methodology is a technique which is used to estimate “de facto weights and flexibility” of a monetary regime against an anchor or a set of currencies within a basket How do you link to OCA? In other words, why is it important for pre-unitary Italian states to have exchange rate fluctuations in line with the same, third, currency? In addition, how the choice of the “numéraire” influence your results? And what about the use of London market data only? Using changes in interest rates is problematic (BdF had very few changes, see Bazot, Bordo and Monnet, 2016) When you do single equations for each financial centre, is that a time-series analysis? In that case, how do you take into account possible AR or MA processes?

7 Comments/5: METHodology (2)
The price of a foreign-exchange bill also reflects other things, such as transaction costs, financial centre liquidity (and bullion standard), credit risks, etc.. How is it possible to disentangle these effects? In addition, to consider time FE to control for common trends (increasing financial interconnection through the period, etc.) As you have data for London only, you should explain more extensively how you calculate the correlation between forex bills of Italian financial centres (e.g. can trade/financial tensions between Britain and a polity affect the results?) Ugolini (2010) uses a database that includes observations from the six most important financial centres testing market integration, substitutability of money market instruments, choice of the correct monetary standard reference, and currency liquidity. His results point to a “trend towards increasing multipolarism in the international monetary system before 1870.” How your results relate to that?

8 Comments/6: Italian history
Disagreement with Toniolo et al. (2003) on the timing of Italian financial integration should be justified. Toniolo et al. measure the pricing of the Italian Consols. In general, to understand with clarity whether the Italian monetary union played a role in the rise of the “Southern Question”, an in-depth analysis of other factors, such as the establishment of a common tariff policy (at the national level), the institutional diversity (and institutions sensu lato), the distribution of physical, human and social capital, is needed.

9 GRACIAS POR SU ATENCIÓN


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