1. Workforce Planning: Reduction of Training Numbers
Vicky Osgood
Postgraduate Dean
Wessex Deanery

4. Workforce Planning
Tight central control v Market forces

7. NHS Plan 2000
By 2004
1000 more specialist registrars – key feeder grade for consultants
450 more GP trainees
By 2005
40% rise in medical student numbers from 1997

8. CCT Supply and Demand Scenarios

9. GP Demand & Supply Scenarios

10. Change in Training Numbers
EWTR
Service pressures
‘Cost’ of GP increase

11. Expenditure
Highest spending since 1982–83
Lowest tax burden since 1960–61
Highest borrowing since WWII
£178bn borrowing this year
Receipts

12. SPENDING REVIEW: NHS protected but must save £20bn
No credible plan for £20bn NHS savings, warn MPs

13. “Over-supply of consultants”
If NHS employed all new secondary care CCT holders over next 10 years, consultant numbers would increase from 35,000 to 61,000
CfWI 2010

14. Hospital service is dependent on the trainee pipeline
Proportions of Medical Workforce
NHS Census 2009
51,000 trainees
35000
Consultants
36000
GPs
Trainee Pipeline
GP and Consultant Workforce
Hospital service is dependent on the trainee pipeline

15. Training numbers are not aligned with replacement consultant numbers

16. The “dual dilemma “– there are insufficient trainees to cover existing rotas, and there are too many trainees to fill existing consultant positions

17. Unless we increase the numbers of trained doctors delivering service
We can’t reduce numbers of trainees without disrupting hospital service
Unless we increase the numbers of trained doctors delivering service Or
we reconfigure the way we deliver services

18. Rebalancing the Medical Workforce
Trainee Pipeline
We could remap the funding to expand the consultant workforce with the excess CCT holders

19. Rebalancing the Medical Workforce
Available trust funding for trained doctor expansion
The 15% reduction in trainee numbers to align with future workforce demand
The 15% proportion of trust funded trainee posts

20. What shape of service?
Trained doctor delivered service
Generalists trained to higher level
Majority of specialists still have generalist skills
Blurring community / hospital distinction
Multi-professional teams

21. Plan Reduction in overall ST1/CT1 entry points
Rebalance specialty and GP
Rebalance geographically
Look at higher specialty training posts
Too many surgical
Still gaps in other specialties
Demand and need may vary with different service models and financial situation

23. C O G P E D
9th National Multi-specialty Conference for Heads of Schools, Programme Directors, Directors of Medical Education
25 & 26th January 2011