1. What Has Happened in the Chinese Economy since the 2008 Crisis
Andong Zhu
Tsinghua University

2. Outline
Introduction
The Impact of the 2008 Crisis on the Chinese Economy
The Chinese Government Responses
The Performance of the Chinese Economy
The Challenges and Opportunities
Conclusion

3. The Coming Hard-landing of China?
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. KWR International: how to find a soft landing. If China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? China avoid a "hard landing.
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing' coming in China, warns.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: The American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China: The risks in one graphic
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing ….
2016. Soros says China Hard Landing Will Deepen the Rout

4. Outline
Introduction
The Impact of the 2008 Crisis on the Chinese Economy
The Chinese Government Responses
The Performance of the Chinese Economy
The Challenges and Opportunities
Conclusion

6. The Change of International Trade

8. From “summer” to “winter”
Source: China Statistical Yearbook

9. Outline
Introduction
The Impact of the 2008 Crisis on the Chinese Economy
The Chinese Government Responses
The Performance of the Chinese Economy
The Challenges and Opportunities
Conclusion

10. China’s Policy Response
Fiscal Policy: RMB 4 tr. Stimulus Plan
Expansionary Monetary Policy
Encourages Exports: increase tax rebate, etc. ……

11. The Composition of the 4 Tr. RMB Stimulus Plan

13. Policies after 2012 Relax government restrictions over business
Supply-side structural reform
Anti-poverty movement, etc

14. Outline
Introduction
The Impact of the 2008 Crisis on the Chinese Economy
The Chinese Government Responses
The Performance of the Chinese Economy
The Challenges and Opportunities
Conclusion

15. 32.7 times Increase in GDP Source: China Statistical Yearbook
22.3 times Growth with per capita GDP

18. GDP Growth Rate (%)
GDP per capita in 2015（2007=100）*
2003~2007
2009
2010~2015
World
4.0
-1.7
2.9
108.1　
High income Countries
2.8
-3.4
1.8
102.8　
Euro Area
2.2
-4.5
0.8
98.8　
Low- &Middle income Countries
7.4
2.3
5.2
132.4　
Argentina
8.8
-6.0
118.5
Brazil
-0.1
2.1
109.9
China
11.7
9.2
8.3
185.5
India
8.6
8.5
7.3
154.9
Russia
7.5
-7.8
104.8
South Africa
4.7
-1.5
102.7
France
2.0
-2.9
1.0
99.1
Germany
1.6
-5.6
106.8
Japan
-5.5
1.3
101.3 UK
-4.2
101.1
USA
-2.8
103.0
During 2007 to 2015, world economy expanded by 19%, while China 93%, [contributed 36% of world economy growth]

19. Source: CYS 2014

21. SOE’s counter-cyclical behavior

22. Outline
Introduction
The Impact of the 2008 Crisis on the Chinese Economy
The Chinese Government Responses
The Performance of the Chinese Economy
The Challenges and Opportunities
Conclusion

23. The Change of International Trade

24. Over-dependence on Investment
Source: CYS 2014

25. New Loans in China: 2007.1-2016.10 (100m RMB)

26. Over-dependency on International Trade
International Trade Dependency Ratio Of China, Japan and USA (%):
China
Japan
USA
Source: WDI 2016

27. Too much debt?

31. Capital flight?
Source:

33. Chinese Save Too Much?
Source: WDI 2016

34. China’s Consumption:1978-2013 (as % of GDP)
Source: CYS 2016

35. The Widening Income Inequality
Household Income Gini Coefficient of China: 38 38

36. The Evolution of Wage, Private Consumption and Profits in China (% GDP)
LHS: Wage, Consumption
RHS：Profit
Profit
Wage
Household Consumption
Source: CYS

38. Rapid growth of wages

39. Opportunities
The Drain Up of the Surplus Rural Labor Reserves—Lewis Turning Point
The Foundation of Chinese Economy is Still Good (huge market, Infrastructure, Industry Clustering)
The lasting stagnation (International Market; US Model; Theory, etc)

40. Recent Development

41. Residential House Index

42. Stock Market Index of China

43. From Deflation to Inflation

44. PPI:2006.1~

45. China’s GDP Growth(%):2006Q1~2016Q3
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary

46. PMI of China：
Non-Manufacturing
Manufacturing

47. Chinese Government still has Enough Policy Tools

48. Rapid Growth of Government Revenue and expenditure
Tr.RMB %

50. Low External Debt Risk
Risk Indicators on External Debts of China(%):
Source: CSA 2016

51. Monetary Policies-RRR
Now M2 is Tr. RMB, Lower 1 percentage point of RRR would release around 1.52 Tr. RMB money supply.
中国人民银行决定从2014年4月25日起下调县域农村商业银行人民币存款准备金率2个百分点，下调县域农村合作银行人民币存款准备金率0.5个百分点

52. Monetary Policies-Interest Rate

53. Conclusion China May Still Experience Rapid Growth in Future, but,
The growth pattern of China has to be changed even without this current Crisis

54. Questions and Comments Welcome! andong@tsinghua.edu.cn
Thank You!
Questions and Comments Welcome!