1. Model Summary Fred Lauer
IMAGE
Model Summary
Fred Lauer

2. General Information Model Name Host Institution Domain/Objective
IMAGE
Host Institution
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
tation
Domain/Objective
IMAGE simulates the environmental consequences of human activities worldwide. It accounts for interactions between society, the biosphere and climate. It assesses issues of sustainability such as climate change, biodiversity and human well-being.
Temporal Spatial Scale
Global, but the model takes into account socioeconomic diversity in 26 defined world regions so that projections are correctly scaled to unique sets of socioeconomic traits. Long time-scale—up to the year 2100.

3. Key Assumptions
Data is incomplete due to incomplete knowledge of historical time series. No true certainty of structural connections between certain processes (impact of climate change on crop yields, local climate change, etc.). Uncertainty in future scenario drivers (population, economic growth, policy targets, societal trends, etc.). Highly generalized as an aggregate model. Socioeconomic processes are defined in 26 regions, global abstraction of biosphere, all behaviors are averages—does not account for heterogeneity within a region (including social), does not account for major differences between countries, and all future trends apply to global averages. Extrapolation is dangerous.

4. Key Inputs (Drivers) Pressures from Human Systems Impacts Interactions
Carbon cycle and natural vegetation
Agriculture and land use
Crops and grass
Energy supply and demand
Nutrients
Agricultural economy
Water
Energy conversion
Impacts
Energy demand
Aquatic biodiversity
Energy supply
Ecosystem services
Forest management
Flood risks
Land-use allocation
Human development
Livestock systems
Land degradation
Interactions
Terrestrial biodiversity
Emissions
Responses
Land cover and land use
Policy responses
State Variables
Air pollution and energy policies
Carbon, vegetation, agriculture and water
Climate policy
Atmospheric composition and climate
Land and biodiversity policies

5. Key Outputs Energy use, conversion and supply;
Agricultural production, land cover and land-use;
Nutrient cycles in natural and agricultural systems;
Emissions to air and surface water;
Carbon stocks in biomass pools, soils, atmosphere and oceans;
Atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants;
Concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and radiative forcing;
Changes in temperature and precipitation;
Sea level rise;
Water use for irrigation

6. Examples of output

7. Program and examples

8. Some uses in literature
Beyond 2015 (2009) Project
CRITICISMS
Used to assess the long-term implications for Millennium Development Goals (PBL, 2009).
The model is an aggregate model, and really only applicable to generalized global scenarios.
Global Environmental Outlook – GEO4 (2007)
It’s a useful tool for policy makers, especially those who work on shared boundaries on a global scale, but its not very useful for any regional tasks.
Focused on environment for human well- being as a central theme (Kok et al., 2009).
Roads from RIO+20 (2012)
Alternative scenarios regarding development and its impacts to environment, biodiversity, climate change. (PBL, 2012)
The apparent complexity of the model and inability for users to try to use the model themselves may inhibit other novel research that could come from “non-expert” manipulation.
IPCC (2014)
Used to explore global mitigation scenarios (Van Vuuren et al. 2012)
It’s huge!
PBL research
Used to explore various interests in policy (Stehfast et al., 2009, Bouwman et al., 2011, Bouwman et al., 2013b, Van Vuuren and Stehfest 2013)