1. CFE Democracy Groups of Influence

2. The influences are complex
There are many influences on voters in the UK. They are complex. They are changing. They are also inter-related, not separate.
We all have a social class. We all have a gender. We all have a race.
The media is also an influence. But there are many different types of media. And the different social classes access different kinds of media.
Let’s look at the different influences and come to some conclusions.

3. Social Class 2010 general election
Voting by Social Class
Social Class
CON (%)
LAB (%)
LIB DEM (%) AB 39 26 29 C1 28 24 C2 37 22 DE 31 40 17
Source: Ipsos MORI
Social class remains a key influence. Why?

4. Social Class
Up until the 1970s there was a clear two party system, with Labour seen to be championing the working class, the Conservatives the middle and upper classes.
Since then, the middle class has grown in size.
All the major parties now compete for the middle ground.
The FPTP system also encourages parties to ignore “safe” seats and win over floating voters in marginal constituencies.
The Electoral Reform Society claims that 382 out of the 650 seats are so safe that any opposition vote is a wasted vote.

5. SOCIAL CLASS AND FIRST PAST THE POST
It is the party which wins the most seats throughout the country which wins UK General Elections. Not the party which wins the most votes.
But to win seats, you need to win votes.
There are 650 seats in total and each is a distinct geographical area. These areas are separated by social class. Richer people tend to live next to other richer people. Poorer people can only afford to live next to other poorer people.
So, many seats are either “safe” Conservative or “safe” Labour, depending on their social class composition. For example….

6. Richmond, Yorkshire and Glasgow North East

7. Conservative voting by social class 2010

8. Labour voting by social class, 2010

9. The Scottish factor
Jim Murphy, Labour, romped home in affluent East Renfrewshire
Murdo Fraser MSP ‘Rip it up and start again’
But, a national aspect also enters the equation. In 2010, Scottish voters, perhaps seeing the General Election as a two horse race between Labour and Conservatives, returned Labour MPs with increased majorities. Labour won in even the most affluent areas, e.g. East Renfrewshire.
The Conservatives won just 1 seat in the whole of Scotland. Conservative MSP Murdo Fraser has suggested that the party has to change its name and its whole organisation as the Scottish Conservatives, as a party, is ‘toxic’ in Scotland.

10. Social Class and Scotland
A feature of the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections was the scale of Labour’s defeat in its traditional working class heartlands.
Labour’s vote fell everywhere, but its best result came in affluent Eastwood (9.7% increase) but Labour’s vote actually fell most heavily in areas of social deprivation. Labour lost “safe” seats such as Glasgow Shettleston and Kirkcaldy.
Labour won the Inverclyde by-election in June 2011, despite losing the same seat in the Scottish elections a month earlier. This may be further evidence of a “twin track” approach by some traditional Scottish Labour voters; voting Labour in UK elections where a Labour/Conservative contest is most likely but switching to the SNP for Scottish elections.
Frank McAveety (Lab, Shettleston) was just one of the many Labour MSPs in traditional Labour seats who lost out in 2011 to the SNP.

11. Gender Women used to have a strong attachment to the Conservatives.
In fact, if it wasn’t for the female vote, Labour probably would have won every post-war General Election up until Since then, their vote has been up for grabs. It is middle class women who are sought after though. Poor women, like poor men, tend to vote Labour.
So, meet those who are not so committed. “School Gate Mum”, for example.
School Gate Mum is the British version of the “Soccer Mums” found in the USA. They are working women who have demanding lives, balancing work and family responsibilities.

12. Gender
Mumsnet is an internet network that is becoming increasingly influential in politics. Ahead of the 2010 General election all three party leaders went out of their way to woo the influential, middle class female users of the Mumsnet forum by conducting online web chats and answering users questions.
Alex Salmond got in on the act ahead of the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, by taking part in a Mumsnet Q & A where he pledged to keep education and personal care for the elderly free in Scotland.

13. Gender Importance of the female vote
The Conservatives won clear majorities among women who have a career, work or have higher disposable incomes. A vital demographic group.
Part of David Cameron’s recent Cabinet reshuffle was to increase the number and profile of female Cabinet Ministers in an attempt to hold on to the female vote.
Importance of the female vote

14. Age
Traditionally, younger voters are more likely to support parties promising social change.
For some time, the Conservatives core vote has been among older, affluent voters.
But, in 2010 the Conservatives promoted a more youthful identity.

15. Age
The Conservatives did much better in 2010 among younger voters….while maintaining its core elderly vote.

16. Race and the conservatives
Conservative strategists feel the frustration as they do with Scottish voters.
Their policies are not unpopular (minority voters can be much less liberal on social issues than white voters, especially benefit fraud) but voting Conservative seems a cultural step too far. People from a Black Caribbean background, especially, still feel the Tories are hostile or indifferent towards them.
“They’re Conservatives but just don’t know it” is a common response.
Some Conservatives feel their party has to have a “Clause 4 moment” with minority voters, publicly disowning Norman Tebbit’s infamous “cricket test” and becoming more involved in anti-racist movements.
Runnymede Trust survey on race and voting

17. Race Labour has retained its popularity with black and Asian voters.
The Conservative Party has realised that if it is to win elections in the future it must win the votes or urban ethnic minorities. There are over 100 seats in the UK where the local population who identify as Muslim are greater in number than the sitting MP’s majority.
Only 16% of ethnic minorities voted Conservative in Paul Uppal MP represents the kind of state educated, hard-working ethnic minority voter the Conservative Party has found it hard to win over.
Black voters are significantly more likely to be Labour supporters. So too are Asian voters, but not as strongly as blacks.
This could be back to the class relationship again, with blacks more likely to live in poorer inner city areas and have a low income. Labour, in general, has a better image with minority ethnic voters. The Conservatives, in the period of Enoch Powell, were strongly for an end to immigration. William Hague also tried to make immigration an issue at the 2001 General Election, which alienated black and Asian voters. David Cameron has tried to end the Conservatives image as the “nasty party” and has made big efforts to win the votes of minority voters.