1. NS4053 Spring Term 2017 Cammett: Chapter 3 Political Regimes in the Middle East

2. Overview Regime refers not only to a type of government but also
The political elite’s guiding ideology
The rules of the game and
Structuring of the political entity
Regime change now involves major structural change in all forms of political activity
Revolutionary – Iran 1979
Peaceful and incremental – Turkey 1946 and 1950
Creeping Egypt since 1971

3. Regime Types I
Middle East characterized by a disproportionately large endowment of authoritarian regime types based on Freedom House evaluations
12 countries classified as “not free”
6 only “partially free”
Region also associated with economic underperformance vis-à-vis its resource endowments
Most authoritarian republics in the RPLA and RRLA categories
Authoritarian presidents in RRLA countries benefit from higher per capita resource wealth when it comes to maintaining their rule

4. Regime Types II

5. Regime Types III First Pattern
Every Arab country that experienced major uprisings culminating in ruler overthrow except Libya and South Sudan were authoritarian republics lacking significant natural resource endowments
Libya in some ways exception -- however
Increasing repression and inequitable distribution of oil wealth led to mounting dissatisfaction with the regime
But his overthrow and capture probably would not have occurred without the NATO-led campaign against his government

6. Regime Types IV Second Pattern
No resource rich monarchies fall into the transitional category
Although most monarchies experienced some unrest during Arab uprisings of 2011 so far non of the rulers have been overthrown
Protests against Hashemites in Jordan and King Mohammed VI have been far more muted than those against rulers in the republics
One argument – the rulers in these countries have more political legitimacy than in the Arab republics

7. Regime Types V Third Pattern
Heavy concentration of monarchies in category of resource rich countries
Only Jordan and Morocco do not possess high per-capita resource wealth
Resource curse is one of the most prominent explanations for authoritarianism in Arab World
Does not provide complete explanation
Virtually all of the oil-rich countries were authoritarian prior to discovery of oil
MEANA countries that lack oil have also had sustained periods of authoritarian rule
Oil wealth is not as robustly associated with authoritarianism in other global regions

8. Regime Types VI
A large an growing body of research links governance to development paths and outcomes
Governance refers to the combination of political, social, economic and institutional factors that affect the behavior of organizations and individuals and influence their performance
Governance encompasses multiple dimensions including:
Administrative procedures such as legislation and regulation
The rule of law or the de facto enforcement if these laws, regulations, and administrative procedures
Voice and participation which capture the mechanisms that stakeholders al all levels employ to express their grievances
Transparency or the openness and clarity of the political system and
Accountability or the ways in which governments answer to the public and accept

9. Regime Types VII Governance encompasses multiple dimensions including:
Administrative procedures such as legislation and regulation
The rule of law or the de facto enforcement if these laws, regulations, and administrative procedures
Voice and participation which capture the mechanisms that stakeholders al all levels employ to express their grievances
Transparency or the openness and clarity of the political system and
Accountability or the ways in which governments answer to the public and accept

10. RPLP Countries
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Qatar
UAE
Oman
Bahrain, and
Libya

11. Saudi Arabia

12. Kuwait

13. Qatar

14. UAE

15. Oman

16. Bahrain

17. Libya

18. RRLA
Algeria
Iran
Iraq
Sudan
Syria and
Yemen

19. Algeria

20. Iran

21. Iraq

22. Sudan

23. Syria

24. Yemen

25. RPLA
Egypt
Jordan
Lebanon
Morocco and
Tunisia

26. Egypt

27. Jordan

28. Lebanon

29. Morocco

30. Tunisia

31. OECD
Turkey
Israel

32. Turkey

33. Israel

34. Other
Somalia
Djibouti

35. Somalia

36. Djibouti

37. Regime Patterns I
Attempt to integrate political regime type into typology of political economies in region
RPLA group includes the most diverse array of political regimes
Until uprisings Egypt, Tunisia and the two Yemens (before unified in the 1980s) were authoritarian republics
Jordan and Morocco monarchies while
Lebanon a democracy
Despite regime diversity the RPLA countries share some important commonalities
Partially explains why many of these countries witnessed the most extensive and persistent levels of social mobilization since the Arab uprisings broke out.

38. Regime Patterns II
First, all implemented statist economic policies in the first decades after independence
Forced to cut back public investment sharply in the 1980s
Led to rising poverty as well as declining prospects for social mobility for their key constituents in the middle class, especially those in public sector positions.
Second in all RPLA countries, structural adjustment narrowed social conditions and cronyism expanded as a small group of elites profited the most from lucrative economic opportunities
Finally low oil endowments give them fewer resources to deal with increasing unrest.

39. Regime Patterns II
No accident that protests have been less pervasive in the monarchies where heredity succession and greater pluralism have muted calls for regime change
Lebanon lowest levels of social mobilization in part because the power structure is highly fragmented, inhibiting opponents of the system form focusing their protests on a single political office of leader
The RRLA countries are all authoritarian republics with Algeria, Syria and Yemen as secular variants and Iran and Sudan classified as Islamic republics

40. Regime Patterns III
Several common patterns have emerged in these countries
Most RRLA countries embarked on statist development project leading to the expansion of pubic employment and heavy investment in public enterprises
Given their high populations, their substantial resource endowments did not cushion them from the economic crisis beginning in the 1980s
In response to the failure of their development strategies none of the RRLA countries has been able to launch a new ideological project that could mobilize the masses
As with the oil poor countries economic liberalization has been characterized by cronyism and the exclusion of the poor and middle classes from the social contract.

41. Regime Patterns IV Since the 1980s, rulers in some of these countries
Such as Syrian and Iran have increased repression while in others,
Algeria, popular protests have increased while state elites remain indifferent to societal demands
Yet the RRLA countries have thus far remained relatively stable
Only in Iran has there been a regime change
Finally the RRLP countries – Gulf monarchies and Libya have had the most continuity since their establishment

42. Regime Patterns V
In part the relative stability of these countries arises from their high oil revenues per capital which enables rulers to maintain support among the local populations
With its revolution in 2011 Libya is an exception
However Gaddafi’s neglect of key groups and growing repression as well as the NATO bombing campaign set the country apart from the Gulf monarchies
Despite their oil wealth which has cushioned them from making major changes in their founding political settlements, in recent decades small-oil rich Gulf countries have exhibited some gradual transformations

43. Regime Patterns VI In particular:
In UAE islands of quality in public and private sector institutions have emerged
Saudi Arabia with its relatively high population has been forced to undertake austerity programs