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The DUE Process of the Internet in Hong Kong and Mainland China: A Longitudinal and Comparative Study, * Jonathan J. H. Zhu City University of Hong Kong *Funded by UGC of HK (#CityU 1152/00H)
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Theoretical Framework: The DUE (Diffusion, Use and Effects) Process
Exogenous Variables: Individual characteristics Perceptions/motivations Family characteristics Societal characteristics Diffusion (2000): Adoption of home PC Adoption of Web Adoption of broadband Adoption of mobile PDA Effects (2002): Knowledge Attitudes Values Behavior Use (2001): Amount of time Diversity of use Language of sites Online skills Adopted from Dutton, Roger & Choy (1987) and tested in Zhu & He (2002a).
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Analytical Framework: Longitudinal and Comparative Designs
Longitudinal design: annual surveys of panel samples in 2000, 2001, 2002 (and beyond) Comparative design: Hong Kong vs. Mainland China (under “one country two systems”) Future plans to compare with: Other Chinese societies (Taiwan and Macau) Other Asian societies (Japan, Korea, Singapore) Elsewhere within WIP and outside (RPI)
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What to Compare under “One-Country Two Systems”?
Lingual-Cultural Variable Poli-Social Variable Mandarin -CCTV Cantonese -HK TV Socialism Beijing Guangzhou Capitalism x Hong Kong
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Sampling: Panel vs. Revolving Samples
Time HK (New/Panel) Beijing Guangzhou 1,000/0 1,500/0 1,000/400 250/750 250/900 1,000/600 1,000/500 1,000/430
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DUE: Diffusion of the Internet
Diffusion Curves Dynamic Status of Adoption Digital Divide Index
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Diffusion Curves of the Internet in HK, BJ and GZ
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Internet Diffusion across Greater China Region, 2000-2002
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Growth of Broadband Connection
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Dynamic Flow of Internet Adoption (Hong Kong, 2000-2002)
2000/12 2001/12 2002/12 Continuous Adopters (40%) Continuous Adopters (45%) Continuous Adopters (49%) Yes 5% 4% Do you use the Internet? Likely Potential Adopters (17%) 12% Potential Adopters (12%) 8% Potential Adopters (13%) No 5% Continuous Non-adopters (43%) 43% Continuous Non-adopters (43%) 38% Continuous Non-adopters (38%)
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The Digital Divide Index (DDI)
Source: U.S. data are based on Dept. of Commerce Survey, 2000
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DUE: Use of the Internet
Usage Patterns Global Medium vs. Local Usage Online Skills
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Use of the Internet by Location
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Content of Online Activities
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Language of the Websites Visited
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Broadband Connection vs. Online Time in Hong Kong, 2000-2002
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Daily Cycle of Online Time
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Online Skills (% of Users Who Can Perform the Task)
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Mean Score of Online Skills
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DUE: Effects of the Internet
Internet Use and Sociability Online Skills and Civic Efficacy Displacement Effects
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Internet Use and Sociability (time spent on socialization)
Lee & Zhu (2002), IT & Society, 1.
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Online Skills and Civic Efficacy
.63 SES .02 SES .04 Political Efficacy Political Efficacy .40
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Displacement of the Internet (in progress)
Whether use of the Internet replaces: Exposure to conventional media (e.g., reading newspapers and watching television) Participation in other leisure activities (e.g., physical exercises)
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Concluding Remarks Internet has penetrated in Hong Kong and major cities in mainland China at a rapid rate, with the adoption rate in HK the highest within Greater China region whereas the adoption rate in mainland China fastest. Internet diffusion has begun to be leveling off in both Hong Kong and mainland China, suggesting that it may not become a “universal medium” as television has been. Despite the high adoption rate, a “Digital Divide” persists in HK and mainland China, with the largest divide observed in Hong Kong.
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Concluding Remarks (2) While HK users spend more time on and search for personal interest information, their counterparts in the mainland devote more time to online news and chatting, underscoring the differences between the two societies. Although the Internet offers global reach, it is used largely by the users as a local medium, which casts some doubts on media globalization. Broadband connection doesn’t seem to make the users to spend more time online, suggesting Internet use a “relative constant.”
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Concluding Remarks (3) We have not found much evidence for the impact of the Internet on users in such areas as civic attitudes and socialization behaviors when age, education and other key variables are controlled for. What we have experienced perhaps resembles the old days from the fall of magic bullet theory to the rise of limited effects theory. It is still too early to draw any conclusion on the power of the Internet at this stage of its diffusion, use, and effects process.
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References (softcopy available upon request)
Zhu, J. J. H., & He, Z. (2002). Perceived characteristics, perceived needs, and perceived popularity: Diffusion and use of the Internet in China. Communication Research, 29 (4), Lee, B. K. M., & Zhu, J. J. H. (2002). Internet use and sociability in Mainland China and Hong Kong. 1 (1), , available online Zhu, J. J. H., & He, Z. (2002). Information accessibility, user sophistication, and source credibility: The impact of the Internet on value orientations. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 7 (2), available online Zhu, J. J. H., & He, Z. (2002). Diffusion, use and impact of the Internet in Hong Kong: A chain process model. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 7 (2), available online Zhu, J. J. H. (2001, in Chinese). Operational definition and preliminary test of the Digital Divide Index. In X. Wu, J. Wang, & A. Lin (Eds.), Journalism and Communication Research in the 21st Century (pp ). Shantou: Shantou University Press.
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Methodological Issues
Sampling Panel vs. independent samples Measurement Operational definition of “Internet use” Measurement of Internet use by data collection methods Telephone interview Personal interview Diary Online tracking Analysis Need to exclude outliers (> 3 standard deviations) Need for control for competing forces (e.g., age and education)
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Hours/week using the Internet at home (Hong Kong Dec. 2002)
Age Telephone Interview Online Tracking Interview /Tracking 18-19 10.72 6.53 1.64 20-24 8.49 5.54 1.53 25-29 7.06 4.21 1.68 30-34 5.24 3.62 1.45 35-39 5.50 3.51 1.57 40-44 5.02 2.98 1.69 45-49 3.72 2.58 1.44 50-74 1.84 1.91 Total 6.13 4.28 1.43
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