1. The DUE Process of the Internet in Hong Kong and Mainland China: A Longitudinal and Comparative Study, *
Jonathan J. H. Zhu
City University of Hong Kong
*Funded by UGC of HK (#CityU 1152/00H)

2. Theoretical Framework: The DUE (Diffusion, Use and Effects) Process
Exogenous Variables:
Individual characteristics
Perceptions/motivations
Family characteristics
Societal characteristics
Diffusion (2000):
Adoption of home PC
Adoption of Web
Adoption of broadband
Adoption of mobile PDA
Effects (2002):
Knowledge
Attitudes
Values
Behavior
Use (2001):
Amount of time
Diversity of use
Language of sites
Online skills
Adopted from Dutton, Roger & Choy (1987) and tested in Zhu & He (2002a).

3. Analytical Framework: Longitudinal and Comparative Designs
Longitudinal design: annual surveys of panel samples in 2000, 2001, 2002 (and beyond)
Comparative design:
Hong Kong vs. Mainland China (under “one country two systems”)
Future plans to compare with:
Other Chinese societies (Taiwan and Macau)
Other Asian societies (Japan, Korea, Singapore)
Elsewhere within WIP and outside (RPI)

4. What to Compare under “One-Country Two Systems”?
Lingual-Cultural Variable
Poli-Social Variable
Mandarin
-CCTV
Cantonese
-HK TV
Socialism
Beijing
Guangzhou
Capitalism x
Hong Kong

5. Sampling: Panel vs. Revolving Samples
Time HK
(New/Panel)
Beijing
Guangzhou
1,000/0
1,500/0
1,000/400
250/750
250/900
1,000/600
1,000/500
1,000/430

6. DUE: Diffusion of the Internet
Diffusion Curves
Dynamic Status of Adoption
Digital Divide Index

7. Diffusion Curves of the Internet in HK, BJ and GZ

8. Internet Diffusion across Greater China Region, 2000-2002

9. Growth of Broadband Connection

10. Dynamic Flow of Internet Adoption (Hong Kong, 2000-2002)
2000/12
2001/12
2002/12
Continuous Adopters (40%)
Continuous Adopters (45%)
Continuous Adopters (49%)
Yes 5% 4%
Do you use the Internet?
Likely
Potential Adopters (17%)
12%
Potential Adopters (12%) 8%
Potential Adopters (13%) No 5%
Continuous Non-adopters (43%)
43%
Continuous Non-adopters (43%)
38%
Continuous Non-adopters (38%)

11. The Digital Divide Index (DDI)
Source: U.S. data are based on Dept. of Commerce Survey, 2000

12. DUE: Use of the Internet
Usage Patterns
Global Medium vs. Local Usage
Online Skills

13. Use of the Internet by Location

14. Content of Online Activities

15. Language of the Websites Visited

16. Broadband Connection vs. Online Time in Hong Kong, 2000-2002

17. Daily Cycle of Online Time

18. Online Skills (% of Users Who Can Perform the Task)

19. Mean Score of Online Skills

20. DUE: Effects of the Internet
Internet Use and Sociability
Online Skills and Civic Efficacy
Displacement Effects

21. Internet Use and Sociability (time spent on socialization)
Lee & Zhu (2002), IT & Society, 1.

22. Online Skills and Civic Efficacy
.63
SES
.02
SES
.04
Political Efficacy
Political Efficacy
.40

23. Displacement of the Internet (in progress)
Whether use of the Internet replaces:
Exposure to conventional media (e.g., reading newspapers and watching television)
Participation in other leisure activities (e.g., physical exercises)

24. Concluding Remarks
Internet has penetrated in Hong Kong and major cities in mainland China at a rapid rate, with the adoption rate in HK the highest within Greater China region whereas the adoption rate in mainland China fastest.
Internet diffusion has begun to be leveling off in both Hong Kong and mainland China, suggesting that it may not become a “universal medium” as television has been.
Despite the high adoption rate, a “Digital Divide” persists in HK and mainland China, with the largest divide observed in Hong Kong.

25. Concluding Remarks (2)
While HK users spend more time on and search for personal interest information, their counterparts in the mainland devote more time to online news and chatting, underscoring the differences between the two societies.
Although the Internet offers global reach, it is used largely by the users as a local medium, which casts some doubts on media globalization.
Broadband connection doesn’t seem to make the users to spend more time online, suggesting Internet use a “relative constant.”

26. Concluding Remarks (3)
We have not found much evidence for the impact of the Internet on users in such areas as civic attitudes and socialization behaviors when age, education and other key variables are controlled for.
What we have experienced perhaps resembles the old days from the fall of magic bullet theory to the rise of limited effects theory.
It is still too early to draw any conclusion on the power of the Internet at this stage of its diffusion, use, and effects process.

27. References (softcopy available upon request)
Zhu, J. J. H., & He, Z. (2002). Perceived characteristics, perceived needs, and perceived popularity: Diffusion and use of the Internet in China. Communication Research, 29 (4),
Lee, B. K. M., & Zhu, J. J. H. (2002). Internet use and sociability in Mainland China and Hong Kong. 1 (1), , available online
Zhu, J. J. H., & He, Z. (2002). Information accessibility, user sophistication, and source credibility: The impact of the Internet on value orientations. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 7 (2), available online
Zhu, J. J. H., & He, Z. (2002). Diffusion, use and impact of the Internet in Hong Kong: A chain process model. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 7 (2), available online
Zhu, J. J. H. (2001, in Chinese). Operational definition and preliminary test of the Digital Divide Index. In X. Wu, J. Wang, & A. Lin (Eds.), Journalism and Communication Research in the 21st Century (pp ). Shantou: Shantou University Press.

28. Methodological Issues
Sampling
Panel vs. independent samples
Measurement
Operational definition of “Internet use”
Measurement of Internet use by data collection methods
Telephone interview
Personal interview
Diary
Online tracking
Analysis
Need to exclude outliers (> 3 standard deviations)
Need for control for competing forces (e.g., age and education)

29. Hours/week using the Internet at home (Hong Kong Dec. 2002)
Age
Telephone Interview
Online
Tracking
Interview
/Tracking
18-19
10.72
6.53
1.64
20-24
8.49
5.54
1.53
25-29
7.06
4.21
1.68
30-34
5.24
3.62
1.45
35-39
5.50
3.51
1.57
40-44
5.02
2.98
1.69
45-49
3.72
2.58
1.44
50-74
1.84
1.91
Total
6.13
4.28
1.43