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Líliam César de Castro Medeiros,
Individual Based Model for Dengue Transmission: Interactions Between Humans, Mosquitoes and Serotypes Líliam César de Castro Medeiros, Antônio Miguel Vieira Monteiro, et al.
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Dengue Fever It is a viral disease trasmitted in Brazil mainly by Aedes aegypti mosquito There are four distinct serotypes of the virus: DENV1, DENV2, DENV3 e DENV4
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The clinical spectrum ranges since
asymptomatic infections mild illness to the more severe forms of infection such as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) dengue shock syndrome 3
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In the World World Health Organization
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The Aedes aegypti Urban habits
They live inside and in the proximity of the houses Hematofagic activities Multiple bites Oviposition sites Eggs resistence Vertical transmission The mosquitoes live near the place where there are food, human blood and recipents to put eggs
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Risk Factors
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The Model Humans Mosquitoes A multi-level stochastic cellular automata
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Cellular Automata Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana
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Cellular Automata Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana
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Cellular Automata Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana
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Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana
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Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana
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Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana
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Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana
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Each cell contains: A finite set of predeterminated states
A set of transition rules (to change the states) which depend on the cell’s neighborhood The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana
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The Model Humans Mosquitoes
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The Model Humans Mosquitoes
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Several Serotypes 1st serotype 2nd serotype 3rd serotype 4th serotype
TCI 1st serotype 2nd serotype 3rd serotype 4th serotype
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Model Considerations Human mobility Asymptomatic people Human renewal
House infestation Vector density per household
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Simulation in Human Lattice
Inicialmente: inhabitants 70% of house infestation rate 0 a 2 mosq/human General Mobility: 50% Percentual of public locations: 3% Mobility to community centers: 90%
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Current work Macroscale Occupied area Population density Geography
Informations about vector Water supply Garbage collection Economic variables Climatic data
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TerraME is a programming environment for spatial dynamical modelling
TerraME is a programming environment for spatial dynamical modelling. It supports cellular automata, agent-based models, and network models running in 2D cell spaces.
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Agents are computational systems placed in some environment.
(Jennings et al., 98) They can represent Individuals Households Institutions Popular instrumental to represent social systems, complex urban systems and structured epidemiological processes Slide adapted from Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade, INPE 24
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Spatial neighbourhood between cells
Cell→cell Spatial neighbourhood between cells Slide from Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade, INPE (Aguiar et al., 2003) 25
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Study Area: Caraguatatuba
Epidemics in: 2002, 2004, 2007 and 2010 More than 3,500 reported cases in 2010
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Thank you!
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