1. The Politics and Policy of Immigration Reform: 2005-2009
Political Science 126C / Chicano/Latino Studies 163
Lecture 11
February 17, 2009

2. Today Pressures on Congress (and in the society) to reform immigration
The Congressional debates

3. Outcome of Current Debate Likely to be Major Reform
Possibility 1 – Significant revision to 1965 Act while maintaining its principles
Family unification, meeting national labor needs, refugee admissions with minimal bias by region or national origin
Possibility 2 – Replacement of 1965 Act with new immigration framework
Rare in U.S. immigration history
Until then, stalemate
Stalemate needs to be seen as a policy option
Some (maybe the majority of interested parties) see stalemate as better than some of the possible changes

4. Why now? Possible reasons
Demographic
Economic
Populist/political
Ethnic
Likely answer is some blend of each of these
Important to consider as resolution in contentious pluralist debates (like immigration reform) will recognize organization of interests and volume of demand making

5. Demographic
Size of immigrant population, either in raw numbers or as share of national population
Size of the unauthorized population, again in absolute numbers or as a share of the (immigrant) population
Dispersion of immigrant/unauthorized immigrant population
Characteristics of immigrants and perceptions of their political or economic contribution to U.S. society

6. Economic Demand for labor not being met by native workers
Changing needs of the U.S. economy
Labor competition between immigrants and natives
Costs of providing services to immigrants (including their U.S. citizen children)
Global competition for skilled workers and “investors”
In the past, economic downturns
This may exacerbate tensions in the current debate, but it emerged during a robust economy

7. Populist/Political
Opportunity to separate oneself from the pack, e.g. Tom Tancredo or John McCain
Identifying immigration-related issues as part of a larger phenomenon, e.g. Lou Dobbs and the decline of the middle class
More traditional nativism – the Minutemen
Focus for community-level organizing in immigrant/ethnic communities or by other interested groups (labor unions)

8. Ethnic
Elite – Tool to show newly emerging political influence and ethnic solidarity
Mass – Resource to mobilize populations that have been more focused on transnational issues or have been distant from politics
Some aspects of immigration “reform” hit home more than any other issue in U.S. politics
Long-term – Will shape how immigrant/ethnic populations connect to the political parties for a generation

9. Why Does the “Why Now” Matter?
Each of these factors is salient to some in Congress (and in the population more generally)
To the extent that one comes to dominate, it could dramatically shape the eventual bill:
Demographic – An overall cap on immigration; new enforcement of restrictions on unauthorized migration
Economic – Limits on legal immigration by education/skill; guest worker programs
Populist/political – New forms of nativism that focus on ethnic populations, not just immigrants
Ethnic – New leadership in ethnic communities; diminished expectations for incorporation

10. Today Pressures on Congress (and in the society) to reform immigration
The Congressional debates

11. Roots of Key Elements of Contemporary Debate
When does the story begin?
1976 – Fear of the unauthorized
1986 – IRCA
1990s
New restrictions on legal immigration and easier deportation
Steadily increasing border enforcement
Congressional rejection of an overall cap on immigration
9/11 and concerns about immigrants and international security

12. Piecemeal Responses, Avoiding Major Compromise
“Militarization” of the border (1990s)
Early Bush outreach to Mexico/Latinos (Summer 2001)
Set pattern – Bush proposed a guest worker program, but implied openness to legalization
Quick rebuke from other Republican leaders
9/11/2001 – Puts debate on hold as Congress/President explore immigration and security
USA Patriot Act
Surging economy acts as lure for unauthorized migrants

13. Evolution of the Debate
Returned to Congressional discussion in 2004/2005
Decline of post-9/11 security concerns
Dramatic growth in unauthorized population (wide recognition of 12 million figure) and recognition of its dispersion
Bush again proposes guest worker program with implied willingness to include legalization in some form
Emergence of populist anti-immigrant movement (concentrated in states key to 2008 primary election)
Democrats largely silent in this period, seeing Republican division opportunistically
Not raised in 2004 presidential election

14. 2005 – House of Representatives Acted Preemptively
H.R. 4437
Fence/enforcement
Unauthorized status a felony
Employer penalties
Authorizes use of the military to enforce immigration law
No guest worker program or legalization
Why?
Preemptive of President and moderate Republicans in the Senate
Republican leaders didn’t see felonization as good policy (didn’t expect it to have any effect), but spoke to popular concerns

15. Generates Pro-Immigrant Populist Marches
Added another voice to the debate
Forced Democratic members of Congress (the Senate) into the debate
Ensured that 2008 Democratic candidates supported “comprehensive” reform (legalization as part of any bill)

16. U.S. Senate Response S (2006)
New funding for border and interior enforcement
Three forms of legalization
Path to permanent residence for unauthorized migrants who had resided in the U.S. for five years
Three year temporary residence for unauthorized migrants who had resided in U.S. for 2 to 5 years,
Path to permanent residence with return to country of origin
Guest worker visa – up to 6 years, with ultimate path to permanent residence
Overall cap on legal immigration ( )

17. End of 2006 Legislative Session
Neither House nor Senate compromised, so neither bill passed
Both agreed on an enforcement bill
Immigration played a role in a handful of Congressional races
Assumption that session would be more reception to “comprehensive” immigration reform because of Democratic control of both houses of Congress and President Bush’s need for a domestic legacy