1. Simulator for Infectious Diseases

2. Introduction Stochastic simulator for epidemic spread
Develops contacts between census blocks
Simulation based on population, distance between census blocks, infection parameters.

3. Overview Census block level
Infectious contacts generated for an age group in a census block.
Disease parameters are user defined.
Variable number of age groups.
JAVA / postgresql

4. Simulator Design Census Block Grid Contacts Disease Age-Groups
Census Data Reader

5. Census Block
Coordinates
Population
Age Groups
S, R
E, I on each day

6. Grid No of Census Blocks (m*n) Details of Census Blocks Disease
Census Information for each block

7. Disease
Infectious Period
Exposed Period
Infectivity

8. Age Groups S, E, I , R Contact Rate for the age group Affinity
Mobility

9. Contacts
In each block, infectious contacts generated for each age group.
Contacts can be intra-block or inter-block.
Inter-block contacts made with external blocks, using interaction coefficient
Each blocks statistics updated at the end of time unit

10. Intra-block Contacts Fraction of Intra-block contacts
Directly proportional to affinity
Inversely proportional to mobility
frac = a*popBlock/((a-1)*popBlock + popTot);
where, a = affinity / mobility

11. Infectious Contacts
Infectious Contacts generated by each age group function of
Group's contact rate
Infectious population in that age group
Proportion of susceptibles in the block
Infectivity of the epidemic
infectiousIntraContacts = fracIntraBlock*Infectious*ageContactRate*Diseas eInfectivity)*(susceptibles/population)

12. Choosing Blocks to contact...
Block to be contacted chosen randomly.
No. of contacts with that block depends on interaction coefficient
InteractionCoeff = Pop_this_block*pop_contacted_block/distance_bet_ blocks
Avg_IC for the contacted block

13. Census Data Census block data read from census database
Demographics like age are read block by block.
Each block is assigned coordinates in the grid.
Postgresql used to query database.

14. Work to be done... Demographic currently used – age
Socio-economic status, gender, race etc. to be incorporated into the simulator
Visualization