1. The Changing Face of Queensland – what does this mean for councils?
September 2016

2. Jim Myhill
.id consulting

3. informed decisions
.id is a company of demographers, housing analysts, forecasters and Census data experts who have developed demographic information products specifically for the Australian Local Government market.
.id stands for “informed decisions” and our work is to provide decision makers within government and the community with readily accessible, easy to use information about the people living in their communities of interest.
.id’s products give Councils the evidence base to plan housing policy and service delivery, attract investment and promote their region, support funding submissions and compete for resources, advocate for the community and work collaboratively.

4. Online Tools
id.com.au

5. Research projects & consultancy
Population Change
Economic Conditions
Housing & Land-use

6. Today’s presentation
What’s driving population growth? - National Trends
Migration and age structure throughout Queensland
The impact on council services
Emerging “growth markets”

7. National Growth Trends
National trends image

8. The population clock is a projection is based on the estimated resident population at 30 June 2015 and assumes growth since then of:

9. As at 12:00pm (Canberra time)
According to the ABS Population Clock…
On 3 August, 2016 the resident population of Australia was projected to be:
24,147,657
As at 12:00pm (Canberra time)

10. National population and dwelling growth

11. Components of population growth
Births
Deaths
= Natural increase

12. Components of population growth
Net Migration
Interstate
Overseas

13. Migration has taken over natural growth

14. Net Overseas Migration, 1976 - 2015

15. The proportion of Australians who were born overseas has hit its highest point in over 120 years
43.4% of Australians were born overseas or have a parent born overseas

16. Age Structure of Recent Arrivals. 2006 - 2011

17. Fertility/Birth rate increase

18. National fertility rate by age of mother, 1975 - 2011
Source: ABS, Births, Australia, 2011 (3301.0)

20. Qld masterminds

21. QLD ERP,

22. QLD ERP growth, 2004-2014 growth slowing

23. State comparison

24. Qld Interstate migration-1972-2015, slowing

25. Net Interstate migration, 1976-2011

26. A shift in internal migration
Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, (cat. no )

27. A Shift in the distribution of Population Growth
Change
Significant Urban Areas %
no. 1
Melbourne
1.7%
60551 2
Brisbane
2.2%
39640 3
Sydney
0.9%
36601 4
Perth
1.9%
29077 5
Gold Coast - Tweed Heads
2.9%
14290 6
Adelaide
1.0%
11663 7
Not in any Significant Urban Area (Qld)
1.4%
9749 8
Sunshine Coast
2.6%
6275 9
Canberra - Queanbeyan
1.2%
4333 10
Townsville
2.8%
3995
Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, (cat. no )

28. A Shift in the distribution of Population Growth
Change 2014r-15p
Significant Urban Areas %
no. 1
Melbourne
2.0
86796 2
Sydney
1.7
77565 3
Brisbane
1.5
33702 4
Perth
1.4
26163 5
Adelaide
0.9
11970 6
Gold Coast - Tweed Heads
1.8
10798 7
Not in any Significant Urban Area (NSW)
0.8
8470 8
Sunshine Coast
1.6
4864 9
Newcastle - Maitland
3964 10
Wollongong
1.2
3333
Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, (cat. no )

29. Net overseas migration

30. Overseas migration,

31. Net Overseas migration share, %

32. Drivers of QLD growth

33. Qld dips below Australia growth rate

34. But growth occurs across the board in QLD

35. But growth occurs across the board in QLD

36. So what does all this look like for councils that provide community services?

37. Overseas migration

38. Birthplace

39. Greater Brisbane

40. Regional QLD

41. Cairns North

42. Ageing – but also…a mini baby boom
Ageing image...and baby?

43. Ageing Qld median age in 1994 was 32.4 years – in 2012 it was 36.6.
By 2061 it will be 39.9 to 43.7

44. Population by five year age group
Queensland, 1976

45. Population by five year age group
Queensland,

46. Population by five year age groups
Queensland,

47. Population by five year age groups
Queensland,

48. Population by five year age groups
Queensland,

49. Age trends - Queensland

50. Age trends - Queensland

51. Age trends - SE Queensland

52. Age trends - SE Queensland

53. Age trends - Regional Queensland

54. Age trends - Regional Queensland

55. Family trends – increase in lone person HH in regional Qld

56. Three growth markets 2011-2031 forecast

57. id - the population experts
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58. Mining – employment shift to coal gas – Surat Basin

59. Affordable housing

60. Affordable housing

61. Lower $ improves tourism competitiveness

62. id - the population experts
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id.com.au
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id - the population experts